Haig Partners’ Post

This is a relevant piece of information that was ignored by most analysts today: According to Wards Automotive, August annualized #US new car sales came in at 15.13 million (seasonally adjusted), down from 15.82 million in July, and significantly lower compared to the market consensus forecast of the annualized rate of sales coming at 15.4 million. This performance implies a sequential retrenchment of 4.36% in total new car sales, the most significant fall seen since January of this year. According to my forecasting model, based on this performance 2024 will likely end seeing the annual rate of car sales falling some 6% y/y (December 2024). And looking at 2025 as a whole, the model is estimating that sales should fall an additional 3.4% y/y, with sales falling 5.5% y/y in December 2025 --see graph.

Cox Automotive analysts just announced they expect consumer confidence to rise, which they forecast will result in accelerated vehicle sales: https://bit.ly/3VayK4r

🚗 October Auto Sales Shift into High Gear! In October, new vehicle sales are set to rise by 10% compared to last month, holding a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.8 million. This uptick comes thanks to October’s 27 selling days—four more than September and two more than October 2023. Overall, we're looking at a 7.9% jump from last year. Cox Automotive’s Charlie Chesbrough says it best: “No tricks, no treats—just stable sales." Key drivers? Strong inventory, rising incentives, and an interest rate environment that’s keeping buyers engaged. But it's not all smooth roads—recent weather in the Southeast may have slowed some sales momentum, while market incentives are helping balance the scale. #newcars #automotive #dealership #inventory #interestrates

Exciting news! The latest forecast from Cox Automotive shows that the new-vehicle sales pace for November remains steady, indicating a strong finish for the auto market in 2024. 📈 Stay tuned for more updates and insights as we wrap up the year on a high note! #CoxAutomotive #AutoSales #MarketForecast #2024StrongFinish

[NEWS] New car sales are hitting a speed bump: Q3 has been eventful… we’ve seen cyberattacks, Federal interest rate cuts, and a crazy election cycle. In short, uncertainty is impacting new vehicle demand— So what’s the damage? Analysts predict Q3 sales will hit 3.9 million units, down 2.3% from last year. And Sept. sales are expected to be especially weak–down 11% YoY. Part of the reason? A calendar quirk. Sept. had 5 fewer selling days in Aug. But combining sales for these 2 months tells us a more encouraging story – sales are actually up about 2.6% YoY. Yet — at the end of the day — many car buyers are stalled and still waiting for better new car market conditions that could be coming down the pipeline. Read today’s top automotive stories, presented by Anyline: https://lnkd.in/g6dQG2ZT (Data source: Edmunds / Cox Automotive / J.D. Power)

New vehicles sales continue on a downward trend: By Michel Haoses. According to the new vehicle sales report by released IJG Research and Securities this week, September saw an 0.8% decrease in units sold compared to the 988 sold in August and a 5.2% in September of the previous year. The report shows that a total of 9,471 new vehicles have been sold, […]

From Credit & Collection News: Vehicle sales surge as consumer confidence hits new heights Source: site According to new data from Cox Automotive, the U.S. auto market is closing 2024 on a strong note. November sales maintained a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16 million vehicles, consistent with October. This marks a significant improvement over last November’s 15.5 million SAAR, signaling a continued recovery in the automotive sector.... View Article https://lnkd.in/e4KqSvtu

"Sales of new cars and trucks rose in November to the highest level in three-and-a-half years, helped by bigger incentives for car buyers as dealers sought to clear out excess inventories. U.S. automobile sales rose at an annual rate of 16.5 million last month from a revised 16.3 million in October, according to Ward’s Intelligence. That’s the highest level since the spring of 2021. The figure reflects how many new cars would be sold in the entire year if the same number were purchased each month as were sold in November. High interest rates and high prices have depressed auto sales for the past few years and left them well below a record 17.5 million sales in 2016."

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Vehicle sales show improvement on May: According to IJG, a financial services company, in an analysis last week, a total of 966 new vehicles were sold in May. This represents a 7.5% increase from the 899 vehicles sold in April and a 0.7% increase from the 959 vehicles sold in May last year. Year-to-date 5,322 new vehicles have been sold, of […]