Harmoney’s Post

Bond market recap: quick highlights from last week and the week ahead. • The 10-year benchmark bond yield fell two basis points week-on-week after the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle last week. The yields slightly rose as dealers sold stock following robust buying at the auction on Friday. Today, the yields are likely to open flat, with the demand for bonds maturing in more than 10 years likely declining ahead of the monthly gilt swap auction. • Last week, corporate bond yields eased 6-7 basis points across the yield curve after the US Fed's rate cut. Volumes in the secondary market remained low as investors chose to focus on the big queue of primary market issuance. This week, the yields may remain steady across the yield curve, with the volumes likely to stay subdued amid a lack of fresh cues. • The call rate declined below RBI's repo rate of 6.50% on Saturday because of low funds demand from banks. As liquidity tightened following the advance tax outflows last week, the call rate increased to RBI's marginal standing facility rate of 6.75% during the week. Today, the one-call rate is expected to rise as banks' demand for cash increases due to tight liquidity conditions in the financial system. It will likely trade within the 6.20-6.75% range for the day. Read more at: https://lnkd.in/g2dNd5xi #Harmoney #HarmoneyNewsletter #MarketTrends

Bond market recap: 13 November Stay up-to-date with Harmoney’s Daily Newsletter. Here are quick highlights: • Government bond yields rose as traders covered short positions ahead of India's October CPI data release, with the bond market anticipating inflation reaching a 14-month high. The 10-year benchmark bond yield closed at 6.83%, up from 6.82% on Monday. Market turnover rose to ₹415.65 billion from ₹227.85 billion in the previous session. • The call rate closed significantly below RBI's standing deposit facility rate of 6.25% due to low demand for funds amid high surplus liquidity. The one-day call money rate ended at 5.75%, up from 5.50% on Monday, while the weighted average rate remained steady at 6.45%. • US treasury yields rose on fears that Trump's plan might reignite inflation after a lengthy battle to curb pricing pressures following the Covid-19 outbreak. The 10-year benchmark treasury yield rose 12.2 basis points to 4.43%, below last week's 4-month high of 4.479%. Know more: https://lnkd.in/ggSBrEez #Harmoney #HarmoneyNewsletter #MarketTrends

Bond market recap: 16 July Stay up-to-date with Harmoney’s Daily Newsletter. Here are quick highlights: • Government bond turnover reached ₹438.05 billion, slightly lower than Friday's ₹457.20 billion. The yields ended marginally lower on Monday after an initial rise in early trade due to higher-than-expected June CPI data on Friday. The 10-year benchmark bond yield closed at 6.98% on Monday, compared to 6.99% on Friday. • Treasury yields climbed on Monday as Fed Chair Powell's comments fuelled rate cut expectations. Powell said that the three U.S. inflation readings from the second quarter of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that the rate of price increases is returning to the Fed's goal sustainably. • The one-day call money rate ended at 5.75% on Monday, down from 6.55% on Friday and below RBI's standing deposit facility rate of 6.25% due to a liquidity surplus within the banking system. Know more here: https://lnkd.in/dUPE7R4Q #Harmoney #HarmoneyNewsletter #MarketTrends

The Consumer Price Index measures the overall change in consumer prices based on a representative basket of goods and services over time. The CPI is the most widely used measure of inflation, closely followed by policymakers, financial markets, businesses, and consumers. The widely quoted CPI is based on an index covering 93% of the U.S. population, while a related index covering wage earners and clerical workers is used for cost-of-living adjustments to federal benefits. The CPI is based on about 80,000 price quotes collected monthly from some 23,000 retail and service establishments as well as 50,000 rental housing units. Housing rents are used to estimate the change in shelter costs including owner-occupied housing that accounts for about a third of the CPI. liked the information? follow Abhishek Rawat for more such insights #stockmarket #finance #business #economy #personalfinance #wealth #nifty50 #sensex #banknifty #stockmarketindia #ipo #cfa

The "withdrawal of accomodation" had lost its relevance. There was no accomodation left to be withdrawn. So, the stance change is just a formality. Yet, what makes it so relevant is that it indicates a rethinking within the MPC about growth inflation dynamics. RBI's growth and inflation estimates are kept same as they were in the last policy; but now the MPC seems more confident about the future outlook. On inflation, volatile vegetable prices continue to make headline inflation forecasts unreliable. There is a reasonable case to look at ex-vegetable CPI to gauge the underlying inflation trajectory. This measure of retail inflation has been much below the RBI's 4% goal for last many months. This offers ample room for rate cuts going forward. #rbipolicy #monetraypolicy #bondmarket

Bond market recap: 13 September Stay up-to-date with Harmoney’s Daily Newsletter. Here are quick highlights: • Government bond yields fell as traders placed aggressive bets ahead of India's CPI data. The 10-year benchmark bond yield ended at 6.81%, down from 6.83% on Wednesday. Market-wide turnover was ₹702.60 billion, compared to ₹740.75 billion the previous day. • The call money rate for one-day loans settled at 5.75%, unchanged from Wednesday, as low demand for funds and increased surplus liquidity pushed the rate below RBI's standing deposit facility rate of 6.25%. • U. S. Treasury yield rose slightly across the curve on Thursday but remained near year-lows following a $22 billion sale of 30-year bonds that received below-average bids from investors. The 10-year benchmark treasury yield jumped 3 basis points to 3.683%. The 30-year treasury yield rose by 3.3 basis points to 3.996%, while the 2-year treasury yield rose 1.2 basis points to 3.6579%. Know more here: https://lnkd.in/g5reQ7hD #Harmoney #HarmoneyNewsletter #MarketTrends

The RBI has shifted its monetary policy stance from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ to ‘neutral,’ signaling a more accommodative environment. This could lead to rate cuts as early as December. Key Points: Confidence in Disinflation: The RBI is optimistic about achieving its 4% inflation goal, supported by favorable conditions. Market Reaction: Bond yields fell by 3-7 basis points following the announcement. CPI Insights: With 94% of the CPI basket near 3% inflation, we expect headline CPI to align closely as vegetable prices stabilize. Our analysis suggests a potential 20-30 basis points downside to the RBI’s FY25 inflation forecast, with possible rate cuts of 50-100 basis points before the end of 2025. Stay tuned for updates! #QuantumMutualFund #RBIMonetary Policy #InvestWithoutStress Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

#ECONOMY In august 2024, the General Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a decrease of 0.39%, standing at 130.96. This monthly change represents a significant drop of 0.67 percentage points compared to the previous month, july 2024. This reduction in the CPI is a positive indicator in the current economic context, reflecting a downward trend in the prices of certain products. 💰🪙📈⚡🧾💲🌐💵 Read here: https://lc.cx/XcxFeA #Consumer #Prices #General #ConsumerPrice #Index #products #reduction

#RBIMPCMeeting | The RBI in the latest bimonthly monetary policy meeting kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, growth forecast at 7% and inflation forecast at 4.5% in the ongoing fiscal of FY25. . . . #RBI | #MPC | #RetailInflation | #Inflation https://lnkd.in/gNAdpEBq

"RBI MPC Meeting: The Wait Continues... 🕰️" "Hey finance friends! 👋 The RBI's MPC meeting has concluded, and here are the key highlights: - Interest Rates: Unchanged for the 9th time! 🤯 Repo rate remains at 6.50%. - Policy Stance: 'Withdrawal of accommodation' continues, staying vigilant on risks. 💡 - Inflation Focus: High food prices remain a concern, with food inflation driving overall inflation. 🍔🥤 - Inflation Data: June's CPI surged to 5.1% due to vegetable prices. 🥗 - GDP Forecast: Unchanged at 7.2% for FY25, with quarterly projections. 📈 - Inflation Projections: FY25 forecast remains at 4.5%. 🔍 The RBI is playing the waiting game, but for how long? 🤔 #RBIMPC #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #GDPForecast #EconomicOutlook #FinanceFraternity #IndianEconomy"