Hawkdive’s Post

France’s coalition aversion risks new government's stability and no-confidence motion. France’s Reluctance to Form Coalitions Threatens Government Stability In a development that has been trending on Google searches today, France’s political landscape is facing a significant challenge due to its historical aversion to forming coalitions. The recent snap election has resulted in three nearly equal political blocs, all of which are reluctant to compromise or form what they refer to as "unnatural alliances." This situation is creating a precarious environment where any newly formed government could risk early collapse. For more information, you can visit The Guardian. The Current Political Scenario On July 9, 2024, it became evident that the […] https://lnkd.in/dH-AcA7r https://lnkd.in/dAK46gBE

With just days to go until France’s snap parliamentary election kicks off, victory for the far right looks increasingly likely in the first phase of the two-stage runoff. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and its allies are seen winning 36% of votes, signalling growing support for the party’s euroskeptic, anti-immigration agenda, according to the latest opinion polls from Elabe released ahead of the first vote on June 30. The shift away from centrist politics has spooked investors and analysts, who warn of implications ranging from “political paralysis” to “immediate financial crisis.” But predicting the outcome of France’s final vote on July 7 is less clear-cut, given the complexity of France’s voting system. I took a look at the likelihood of a far-right French victory and the impact for markets in my latest for CNBC International: #Frenchelections #politics #farright #LePen #Bardella #Macron

France's coalition aversion endangers new government's stability, risking early collapse. France’s Aversion to Coalitions Risks Early Government Collapse In a significant political development that has captured global attention, France is currently facing a precarious political situation following a snap election that has resulted in three roughly equal political blocs. This situation has led to a heightened risk of early government collapse due to the nation’s traditional aversion to forming coalitions. This news has emerged as one of the most trending topics on Google today, reflecting widespread concern and interest. Political Landscape in France The latest election has fragmented the French political landscape into three major blocs, each holding roughly similar […] https://lnkd.in/dKtKayP7 https://lnkd.in/duPzDMxG

November was no doubt an eventful month... The result is slowly sinking in one month after the general and presidential elections in the #USA. Meanwhile, #Germany is bracing for a snap election at the end of February next year. The progressive "traffic light coalition" collapsed just one day after the U.S. ballot. Although the two political systems could not be more different, they do exhibit mirroring phenomena. In my op-ed for Review of Democracy, I looked at the rise of anti-establishment, illiberal movements, like MAGA and the AfD party, and how they can potentially disrupt domestic politics. Due to the leverage both countries have for the international order, the more important it is to closely follow the swinging moods and changing course on the ground in Washington and Berlin. We live in interesting times. Link to the article ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/dM-ev2aW

While France's far-right is hailing the lead in the parliamentary election, it’s time for us to reflect on what catalyzes the shift in its political scene. I am excited to share that the research paper I co-wrote with other researchers from ITSS Verona on the rise of far-right in Europe, which was presented to members of the U.S. Department of State, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and USAID previously, is now publicly available. The rise of the far-right has been an increasingly relevant and timely issue, as demonstrated by the gradual election shift towards radicalism. To examine the threats of the far-right to democracy, our team has performed netnography on online channels of relevant parties or politicians, as well as practised semi-structured interviews to gather expert insights. As the Contributor to the section on France, I have examined the growing potential of far-right parties dominating the Legislative election and the risk that strategic ties between France and its Western allies could be weakened, a growing concern underscored by the recent first-round election results. More importantly, given France's significant economic and military power, any major political upheaval in France could impact the entire European continent and its transnational partners. Read our report 'The Rise of the Far-Right in Europe - Mapping Groups, Narratives, and Trends in Europe’s Far-Right Landscape' here: https://lnkd.in/eaDacwM4 ITSS Verona #france #itssverona

🇫🇷 The Far-Right won’t govern France: Le Pen/Bardella only 3rd after the Left (big win) and the Macronists (who hold) What if Macron’s strategy wasn’t a gamble? As his minority government was set to lose political support while facing a rising far right, he counterintuitively decided to accelerate that process as the best antidote against its full realization. Today’s electoral results proved him right, and despite the uncertainties linked to the formation of the next government, Macron remains in the picture as does his party. Isn't that what he sought for? Yet months of political gridlock could lie ahead. The most likely scenario is the left coalition to split and the moderate sides of the Socialists and the Greens forming a government with Macron’s Ensemble. The ongoing French electoral reshuffle coincides with major reconfiguration of EU political landscape. A result of this unexpected electoral result, Macron will continue to have a chance to shape not only France - albeit downsized in political influence - but also the EU, and to do that on the eve of the vote on VdL and the next College of Commissioners and new EU political agenda. #legislatives2024

🇪🇺 Europe's political landscape is undergoing significant shifts: France: President Macron's dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale has plunged the nation into turmoil, with snap elections leading to governmental instability and the rise of extreme political factions. Romania: The constitutional court annulled the presidential election results amid allegations of Russian interference, reflecting the growing influence of far-right, pro-Russian sentiments. United Kingdom: Nigel Farage's Reform UK is gaining traction, potentially reshaping the political landscape by appealing to voter dissatisfaction with traditional parties. These developments underscore the fragility of political systems and the rise of populist movements across Europe. 🤔 Mad Genius Inquiry: If political chaos is the breeding ground for radical change, are we witnessing the dawn of a new European order or the unraveling of its democratic fabric? This post was generated by my custom-built personal agent, powered by LLMs and designed to operate my computer. If you're curious about how it works, feel free to ask!

“Ingouvernable” has become the buzzword in France to describe the country after its chaotic snap election, which no party won. The specter of political deadlock threatens to paralyze the French administration and hit financial markets. The critical question that political analysts pose is whether the French political elites have political stamina to influence the coalition of parties. As none of the three political blocs won enough seats to form a government, parties have no choice but to start talking about forming alliances. That’s a rare exercise in French politics, where compromises with political opponents are usually denounced as betrayal. The major task for France’s new, fragmented political system is to identify an individual who could serve as prime minister and assemble a functioning government that will be able to pass laws in the National Assembly. Macron made clear that he would only appoint a prime minister backed by a “solid, necessarily plural” coalition, as he called for “calm and respectful” efforts to seek compromise.

From the U.S. to Germany: How Comparable Are Current Political Trends? In her insightful article, our Fellow Maria Skóra explores to which extent current political developments in both countries can be compared.

📢 Candidates from the major political groups debated the environment, tech policy, and the economy during the recent "Spitzenkandidaten" event 🗳 Delve into our in-depth analysis for insights from the leaders of all of the major participating party groups 🌐 Explore the key topics and stay ahead in understanding Europe's political landscape by reading our latest briefing! Commission President candidates clash in first "Spitzenkandidaten" debate https://hubs.li/Q02yCktd0 #EU #Spitzenkandidat #EuropeanPolitics