Dr Martin Hiesboeck’s Post

𝐖𝐡𝐲 are 𝐜𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐥𝐨𝐰 despite an 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 environment❓ Like anything market related, only a high-level wizard knows whats happening. For the rest of us ordinary folks there are only theories. Perhaps, some, all, or none of the following possibilities are on the minds of investors: 1️⃣ Buoyant Stock Market - Bitcoin adherents have long believed it was the perfect hedge for the stock market. When one was down, the other was up. That seemed true for a number of years. But during the pandemic, the crypto market and the stock market were both soaring. While each product may or may not be a substitute for the other, with the new Bitcoin ETFs, it has never been easier to transfer money between them. In other words, we may be back in hedge mode. When the stock market is hot like it is right now, crypto investors may look to pile in just like everyone else, reducing their crypto holdings and depressing prices. 2️⃣ Feared Market Glut of Bitcoin - Mt Gox, the once dominant but now defunct Bitcoin exchange plans to return $8Bn of Bitcoin to its investors. The fear is that once these investors recoup their holdings, they will instantly cash out, dumping all their Bitcoin onto the market. The German government also plans to sell $2Bn of seized Bitcoin to the market. Expected oversupply of the currency would naturally dampen investor enthusiasm and price. 3️⃣ U.S. Rate Cuts - Nothing makes toddlers happier than sugar, and companies and their stockholders happier than interest rate cuts. At lower rates, there is easy money available to borrow for any purpose from growing your business to buying its shares with debt. It is the ultimate high for the stock market. Crypto investors may hope that a rate cute will have the same effect on digital asset prices, disregarding the market hedge theory outlined earlier. Potential buyers may be waiting to see what the U.S. Federal Reserve does before powering up their crypto portfolios. BTW, no one from the Fed has said they will cut rates this year, but the market always hopes for the best. 4️⃣ Other Possible Bogeymen - What other monsters could be hiding under the bed or closet? Economic Uncertainty? Global Conflict? Regulatory Ambivalence? Loss of Confidence in the Technology? I don't think these have any impact because there is no new news here. 5️⃣ Maybe Nothing - Perhaps all the earlier crypto market euphoria was just that and we are now at a steady state of normal. Jittery speculators would have already entered and exited the market, while true believers wouldn't flinch regardless of where the price is at. And, even though the launch of the crypto ETFs was and remains a milestone event, the market has absorbed this and is awaiting the next big news event. As is stands, its hard to tell right now whether we are in a slump or in the logical right place. That is, unless your friendly neighborhood wizard has an insight or two handy ...

New Post: CryptoQuant places Bitcoin’s cycle peak at $146,000 as Ethereum enters ‘second bull market’; which undervalued crypto will lead the next bull run? - https://lnkd.in/g5kTkChR places Bitcoin’s cycle peak at $146,000 as Ethereum enters ‘second bull market’; which undervalued crypto will lead the next bull run?The ongoing bull cycle has caused a notable rise in activity in the crypto market. For Bitcoin, CryptoQuant projects a $146,000 cycle high. In the meantime, the firm predicts Ethereum to follow a historical pattern in its MVRV Ratio to enter a second bull market. Despite the positivity in the top two cryptocurrencies, a growing […] The ongoing bull cycle has caused a notable rise in activity in the crypto market. For Bitcoin, CryptoQuant projects a $146,000 cycle high. In the meantime, the firm predicts Ethereum to follow a historical pattern in its MVRV Ratio to enter a second bull market. Despite the positivity in the top two cryptocurrencies, a growing number of investors are rushing into Rexas Finance instead. At just $0.125, many analysts believe this undervalued crypto could lead the next bull market run. CryptoQuant Projects $146,000 for Bitcoin Cycle Peak According to crypto-analytic outfit, CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s price cycle could peak at around $146,000. The firm claims to get this projection from the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin across the network—the realized price valuation. With Bitcoin reaching comparable highs in 2021, the realized price has been a decent gauge of market cycle peaks. Meanwhile, several macroeconomic events, institutional adoption’s ongoing upward momentum, and Bitcoin ETF interest might drive BTC above $146,000 this cycle. It is important to note that Bitcoin’s path is rocky. Geopolitical conflicts and unfavorable legislation, among other market elements, could possibly stop Bitcoin from reaching the projected high. BTC trades at $95,685 as of this writing, down just 2% over the previous day. Should the crypto market remain favorable, Bitcoin’s ascent might quicken, dragging Ethereum and other altcoins behind it. Ethereum Enters ‘Second Bull Market’ According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Ethereum’s second bull market appears to be in shape. The forecasts show that at $4,000 in Q1 2024, the second bull run will be noticeably more dramatic than the first. The analyst pointed to a similar MVRV Ratio in the Ethereum price chart. During the year’s first quarter, the indicator surged to a really high level as the price surge was in progress. However, the indicator cooled back down in the bearish consolidation that followed the run, returning to the neutral 1 level. The MVRV Ratio has once more reversed upward wi

Hype aside – 4 reasons why I think Bitcoin at 80k is still just the beginning!   Bitcoin hit a new ATH at $80k and everyone is once again spamming the rocket emoji (me included🚀) But let me share my thoughts why – hype aside – I think Bitcoin at $80k is just the beginning.   1.    Trump won and will create a crypto friendly environment Let's start with the most talked about right now. Trump is going to be the next president of the US and he has promised a crypto friendly environment in the US. Since many other jurisdictions, especially Europe, follow the US closely we can expect (and hope for) the same in Europe. This will create a lot of room for crypto to grow. Not just for crypto investments but also for crypto innovation.   2.    Institutional FOMO Since Bitcoin was introduced, crypto has been a retail dominated market. This is very unusual in the financial industry where usually large institutional investors dominate the market. Now we see FOMO along institutional investors who fear missing the crypto movement. We start seeing a lot of institutional investors entering the crypto space, especially since it got easier through the Bitcoin ETFs. These large investors are entering the market with larger sums than the average crypto investor trying to get their hands on Bitcoin. There is an increasing demand from large investors, but the supply of Bitcoin on Exchanges is on a record low (according to coinglass.com). Demand > supply = rising prices. Simple economics.   3.    Crypto in investment strategies Another trend I currently observe is how many asset managers and banks are making plans to include Bitcoin (or other crypto currencies) into their investment strategies. They manage the largest part of wealth now and many of them are working on an allocation in Bitcoin and crypto. Once the first one starts, others will follow, and this will lead to another increase in demand. But also, this will legitimate crypto as an established asset class and open the door for new products, innovation, and more.   4.    Interest rate cuts The past interest rate cuts have indicated that the Fed thinks inflation is under control and we could see another cycle of interest rate cuts leading to cheaper money and higher liquidity entering the market. This is a bullish signal for all markets and of course for crypto as well. It also means that inflation will most likely stagnate or rise, which makes Bitcoin and crypto even more attractive as an inflation hedge.   Of course, short-term the crypto market is very emotionally driven, but the outlined reasons make me very bullish for the upcoming 12 - 24 months.   This is not financial advice, and you should DYOR 😉 #cryptocurrency #cryptoassets #bitcoin #ethereum #crypto #blockchain

New Post: CryptoQuant places Bitcoin’s cycle peak at $146,000 as Ethereum enters ‘second bull market’; which undervalued crypto will lead the next bull run? - https://lnkd.in/gS7s9A8t places Bitcoin’s cycle peak at $146,000 as Ethereum enters ‘second bull market’; which undervalued crypto will lead the next bull run?The ongoing bull cycle has caused a notable rise in activity in the crypto market. For Bitcoin, CryptoQuant projects a $146,000 cycle high. In the meantime, the firm predicts Ethereum to follow a historical pattern in its MVRV Ratio to enter a second bull market. Despite the positivity in the top two cryptocurrencies, a growing […] The ongoing bull cycle has caused a notable rise in activity in the crypto market. For Bitcoin, CryptoQuant projects a $146,000 cycle high. In the meantime, the firm predicts Ethereum to follow a historical pattern in its MVRV Ratio to enter a second bull market. Despite the positivity in the top two cryptocurrencies, a growing number of investors are rushing into Rexas Finance instead. At just $0.125, many analysts believe this undervalued crypto could lead the next bull market run. CryptoQuant Projects $146,000 for Bitcoin Cycle Peak According to crypto-analytic outfit, CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s price cycle could peak at around $146,000. The firm claims to get this projection from the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin across the network—the realized price valuation. With Bitcoin reaching comparable highs in 2021, the realized price has been a decent gauge of market cycle peaks. Meanwhile, several macroeconomic events, institutional adoption’s ongoing upward momentum, and Bitcoin ETF interest might drive BTC above $146,000 this cycle. It is important to note that Bitcoin’s path is rocky. Geopolitical conflicts and unfavorable legislation, among other market elements, could possibly stop Bitcoin from reaching the projected high. BTC trades at $95,685 as of this writing, down just 2% over the previous day. Should the crypto market remain favorable, Bitcoin’s ascent might quicken, dragging Ethereum and other altcoins behind it. Ethereum Enters ‘Second Bull Market’ According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Ethereum’s second bull market appears to be in shape. The forecasts show that at $4,000 in Q1 2024, the second bull run will be noticeably more dramatic than the first. The analyst pointed to a similar MVRV Ratio in the Ethereum price chart. During the year’s first quarter, the indicator surged to a really high level as the price surge was in progress. However, the indicator cooled back down in the bearish consolidation that followed the run, returning to the neutral 1 level. The MVRV Ratio has once more reversed upward wi

🎄 Bitcoin to $110K by Year End? Here’s the Bullish Case You Need to Know 🎄 As Bitcoin approaches the magic $100k mark, we will either see a rejection or a push through. Some resistance is to be expected (similar to the $90k level) - let’s unpack the key drivers for an optimistic outlook. 🔍 MicroStrategy’s Dramatic Day Leaves BTC Unfazed Implied vol soared to 200% (!) with traders anticipating a 12%+ daily move. With few call options at such high strike prices, gamma vanished and we witnessed a 16% plunge in MSTR's stock price overnight. Bitcoin held strong - this is a clear positive. We believe that MSTR's strategic goal of raising $42bn (!) until 2027, comprising of $21bn of equity and $21bn of debt to purchase more BTC is still not fully priced in. ⚖️ SEC Leadership Shake-Up Gary Gensler is expected to step down on Jan 20, 2025, aligning with Trump's presidential inauguration. Gensler will not wait to be fired by Trump in an 'Apprentice Style'. This transition to a new SEC Chair could well be heralding a crypto-friendly regulatory environment in the U.S., accelerating positive market developments pre holidays. 📈 Ethereum ETF Speculation Speculation is rife that a new SEC Chair may approve Ethereum ETFs with staking capabilities. This potential approval has already sparked rallies in Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple, each surging significantly this week. The market is abuzz with the possibility of Solana and Ripple ETFs also gaining green lights, further pushing the crypto bull case. 💧 Significant Liquidity Inflows into Crypto Stable coin minting is always a strong momentum indicator: Tether (USDT) minted $10bn last month. Circle (USDC) added $3bn. These are record figures, highlighting that a huge amount of liquidity is flowing into the space. 📊 Soaring Trading Volumes Crypto trading volumes are reaching new heights: Spot volumes exceed $200bn per day. Crypto market cap has surpassed its previous all-time-high of $3.2 trillion, now rivalling the biggest market cap companies worldwide. 📈 BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Option Optimism We flagged this in our previous post. Call buyers have vastly outnumbering put buyers for the entire week. IBIT options offer a cheaper and more efficient way to gain upside exposure to Bitcoin vs. trading MSTR options at 200%+ implied vol. This could signal a significant change in investor preferences, favouring streamlined options for leveraged Bitcoin exposure vs. MSTR options. 📅 December’s Track Record December is historically a 50/50 month for BTC (as many positive as negative December months in the past). The average return stands at +9%, making a $110k price by year-end plausible based on historical performance. 📈 Sustained Upward Momentum While $100k remains a psychological barrier, the combination of strong liquidity, bullish options activity, and favourable market dynamics suggest that $110k by Christmas is within reach. Not financial advice. DYOR

Market Overview Just when we thought the crypto market was ready to soar, it decided to take another unexpected detour. You know, the kind that makes you question why you ever thought this rollercoaster was a good idea in the first place. Panic sellers have made quite the entrance once again. With Mt. Gox's repayment date fast approaching, it seems like everyone's getting a bit jumpy. Can't really blame them, though. The thought of all those long-lost coins suddenly flooding back into circulation is enough to make anyone sweat. But here's the thing about crypto—it's got more plot twists than a telenovela. One minute you're planning your early retirement, the next you're wondering if you can turn your leftover ramen packets into a meal. Now, we know what you're thinking. "Is this the end? Should I start selling my assets and prepare for another crypto apocalypse?" Well, hold on. Let’s look at the bigger picture. Remember, we've been here before, and crypto has a reputation for going on a bull run when it's least expected. So, instead of panicking, why don't we do what we do best? Dive into the news, separate the signal from the noise, and figure out what's really going on. Let’s discuss this in detail and all the other big stories that happened in crypto in the past 24 hours. Here is a quick rundown of the top headlines: First, Bitcoin's dive triggered a $200 million liquidation as the Mt. Gox repayment looms. When are they going to dump all these coins? The bearish sentiment is palpable, and the market is on edge. Next, miners are feeling the squeeze post-halving. With reduced rewards, the profitability of mining is under pressure. Are we going to experience a miner exodus? The drop in Bitcoin's price isn't helping, pushing some miners to the brink. On a more positive note, Bitwise is going bullish on an Ethereum ETF. This move could attract significant investment. How much money will this bring into the crypto market? The optimism around Ethereum's potential continues to grow. Meanwhile, Blast's Season 2 airdrop announcement met with a lukewarm response. Is the hype dying down, and who can claim this airdrop? The community's interest seems to be waning, signaling a need for fresh excitement. Lastly, Dogwhifhat's Vegas Sphere ad plan hits a snag. What's delaying the plan? This unexpected hiccup is causing frustration and raising questions about the project's future. So, instead of succumbing to fear, let's stay informed and prepared. Crypto's volatility is nothing new, and history has shown that patience and vigilance often pay off. Source- Coinmarket Newsletter

As a seasoned investor and financial analyst, I find it paramount to share my insights, especially in the wake of Bitcoin's recent milestone of hitting $60,000, as reported by TradingView. The current market dynamics present both intriguing opportunities and significant risks for investors in the cryptocurrency space. ▶ My Bitcoin Forecast: A Technical Evaluation Post technical analysis and considering various market indicators, I predict Bitcoin's target level could reach approximately $84,400 between January 2025 and June 2025. This bullish scenario, however, is primarily fueled by speculation activities, particularly among fund managers aiming to amplify returns in a market exhibiting lower trading volumes compared to the volatility peaks of 2021. The global market is currently at a peak economic cycle, a phase that historically cannot be sustained over the long term. This scenario often leads investors to bet on the market in anticipation of short-term gains. However, this strategy comes with heightened risks, as the market is overdue for a correction that could extend for a significant period, potentially stalling returns for the next three years. The Risks in Cryptocurrency Investments 1.Volatility: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are known for their high volatility. In my analysis, the downside risk for Bitcoin hovers around the $45,000 mark, underlining the potential for substantial value fluctuations. 2.Market Speculation: A significant portion of the current rise in Bitcoin's value is attributed to speculative activities rather than fundamental economic factors. This trend raises concerns about the sustainability of these price levels. 3.Regulatory Landscape: The evolving regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies across various countries adds an element of uncertainty, potentially impacting market dynamics. #investors Guide In light of these factors, investors must exercise caution and perform thorough due diligence before diving into cryptocurrency investments. Here are some key considerations: 1.Evaluate your risk tolerance and investment horizon. Cryptocurrencies should form only a portion of a diversified investment portfolio. 2.Stay updated with market trends, regulatory changes, and technological advancements in the cryptocurrency space. 3.Consult with financial advisors who have a deep understanding of digital currencies and their market implications. While the potential for Bitcoin to surpass $84,400 exists, investors must navigate this market with a balanced approach, recognizing both the opportunities and the significant risks involved. As with any investment, a well-informed and strategic approach is the key to success in the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. #bitcoininvestment #cryptocurrencymarket #financialanalysis #investorinsights #riskmanagement #BitcoinForecast #marketdynamics #investmentstrategy