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Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has just finished a tour of the three countries in the Pacific that recognize Taiwan as well as Hawaii and Guam. Caught in geopolitical competition with the People's Republic of China, it is increasingly important for Taiwan to manage its diplomatic relations. Presidential visits are a fruitful tool of deepening ties. Recognizing Taiwan is an important means of keeping China's malign influence at bay. These nations are also fierce advocates of Taiwan on the global stage.

In a pivotal moment for US-China relations, Assistant Secretary Kritenbrink is set to visit China from April 14-16, 2024. This diplomatic effort aims to sustain open dialogue and manage the strategic rivalry through increased cooperation and understanding. #AssistantSecretaryKritenbrink #bilateralagreements #cybersecuritychallenges #Economiccooperation #globalpowerbalance #InternationalDiplomacy #militarystrategy #technologicalrivalry #Tradenegotiations #USChinastrategiccompetition

Panama’s 2017 decision to jettison Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with China caught the United States off guard and signaled Beijing’s growing influence in Latin America, I wrote in Foreign Policy. Now, there is a chance Panama “might consider reversing the trend it started,” a decision that would represent a triumph for Taiwan and a rare win for the United States in its fight for influence in a region where its power was once largely uncontested. https://lnkd.in/eyrZXepr

The future of diplomatic relations between Guatemala and China is at a crucial crossroads. Guatemala, one of the few countries still maintaining formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, is now exploring avenues to strengthen its ties with China. This move could have profound implications for the region.   The desire to enhance relations with China comes at a time when Beijing is increasingly extending its influence across Latin America through significant investments and trade relationships. For Guatemala, the prospect of deepening economic and diplomatic ties with the world’s second-largest economy presents an array of opportunities, from infrastructure development to increased trade; however, a China policy establishes that any country seeking to establish formal relations with mainland China must sever official ties with Taipei, resulting in Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation from most of the international community.     Read the thoughts of Harper Meyer Partner James Meyer in the latest edition of the Latin America Advisor as he shares his opinion surrounding this delicate diplomatic balancing act that could set a precedent in diplomatic strategy and potentially offer a new model for other countries grappling with similar dilemmas. Access the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ewGwPDiJ

Navigating Global Uncertainty: Antony Blinken’s Six-Nation Tour writes Parag Gilada #Analysis #USA #Blinken Blinken’s Diplomatic Tour: Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s six-nation visit to Asia, from July 24 to August 3, 2024, aimed to reassure U.S. allies of continued American commitment amid growing international tensions and political uncertainty at home. Reassurance of U.S. Stability: During the tour, Blinken emphasized that U.S. foreign policy would remain consistent regardless of the political changes in Washington, addressing concerns about potential shifts in American leadership and strategy. Focus on Regional Security: The trip highlighted U.S. efforts to strengthen alliances and security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, with notable discussions on deepening relations with the Philippines and addressing tensions in the South China Sea. Broader Strategic Implications: Blinken’s visit underscored the Biden administration’s focus on reenergizing alliances in response to challenges such as China’s rise and ongoing global conflicts, while also raising questions about the effectiveness and speed of U.S. engagement in the region.

Published my first article on Oxford Diplomatic Dispatch! Trying my hand at writing a policy brief to raise awareness about geopolitics in Southeast Asia and articulate my thoughts on Chinese foreign policy. Writing a policy brief is challenging because it requires identifying a pertinent problem, understanding what has already been done to address it, and finding potential areas for improvement to ameliorate the situation. Not only is 500 words extremely brief, but I also wanted to have a bit of fun by referencing Kennan's pivotal "Long Telegram," which set US policy towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Unlike Kennan's extensive document, mine is much shorter and focuses on China and its immediate neighborhood. Much has been discussed about what Southeast Asian states should do about China, but far less has been said about what China should do about its Southeast Asian neighbors. This article is influenced by two events: the recent and ongoing tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea and the publication of the most recent State of Southeast Asia Survey, where 73% of Southeast Asian respondents expressed concerns about China's regional strategic and political influence. In response to China's assertiveness in the South China Sea, Southeast Asian states have welcomed the US' military involvement in the region, thus generating fears of containment within China. Therefore, I recommend that China adopt two key policies to alleviate its regional security challenges. Firstly, China should deepen and strengthen its economic relations with its neighbors, particularly in infrastructure development. Secondly, it should engage in negotiations to resolve the South China Sea dispute to mitigate threats posed by perceived US containment attempts. These policies are not new; Chinese leaders have employed them in the past under Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and even currently under Xi Jinping during his 2013 Peripheral Diplomacy Work Conference. China should certainly use these non-military measures, instead of military force, to address its regional security challenges. Lastly, thank you Julia Hoffmann for encouraging me to write this piece and for your professional editorial assistance! Read all about it below! https://lnkd.in/gsVhzBvZ

While the Biden-Harris Administration has shown signs of diplomatic softening in its approach to U.S.-China relations, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen making it clear that the United States is not pursuing a path of economic decoupling from China, her pointed criticisms of China's overcapacities, particularly in the green technology sector, highlight ongoing concerns. Yellen's stance suggests a nuanced strategy: striving for engagement with China while openly addressing the challenges posed by its economic practices, which appears to be more favorably received by the Chinese side. In contrast, the perspective offered by Matt Pottinger (Former Deputy National Security Advisor of the United States 2019–2021) and Congressman Mike Gallagher represents a significant hardening of the U.S. stance towards China. Their latest piece in Foreign Affairs Magazine, titled "America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed," articulates a view that the U.S. should adopt a far more assertive posture. They argue against the notion of merely managing the complex relationship through diplomacy and economic interdependence. Instead, Pottinger and Gallagher call for a strategic shift towards decisively countering China's global ambitions, which they perceive as undermining democratic values and global security. They advocate for a comprehensive U.S. strategy that encompasses bolstering military capabilities, ensuring economic independence, and strengthening alliances to effectively challenge China's influence and encourage a reevaluation of its governance model. This approach underscores a belief in the necessity of a clear-eyed, confrontational stance in securing a future where U.S. interests and global democratic standards prevail.

VOA: Do you think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is inevitable, or what should the U.S. do to deter that invasion? Waters: I don't think that conflict is inevitable, and I think at its core the U.S.’s interest is peace and stability. That's what's anchored the prosperity in the Indo-Pacific over the past couple of decades. The ability for commerce, for trade, for people-to-people flows regionally to thrive in an environment where there is no war. And so, I think if we take that as our starting point, I don't think that conflict is inevitable, but I do think that the U.S. and Taiwan are focused very much on the question of how to ensure that the leadership in Beijing never believe they have a viable military option and an acceptable cost. And if that condition holds, then I think it will fall to the diplomats and to the channels that exist between the parties to manage this issue carefully. VOA: During your career as a U.S. diplomat, what’s your experience dealing with your Chinese counterparts? What are some striking and most challenging aspects or moments that left an impression on you? Waters: I've been fortunate to deal with Chinese diplomats for the better part of 30 years. And what I will say is irrespective of what you think of China's policy or political system, they do have a very professional diplomatic corps. They've got very talented people in the system. What I think has changed over the past few decades is it's a much more disciplined system. So, it's very difficult, especially in official meetings, for Chinese diplomats to move too far off of the established line. So, I don't think that we should misunderstand the level of talent in the system when we look at it through its structural constraints. But I do think that as China's overall foreign policy has become more assertive, as you know, the leadership has talked about China playing a greater role on the international stage. It has gone through periods where the wolf warriorism, the change in tone from the podium, has characterized a different era of Chinese diplomacy than what we saw before. But I actually think, in some ways, there are plenty in the system who understand the counterproductive nature of those tactics, and I've seen a little bit of a tactical recalibration over recent years in how they express their foreign policy views publicly. https://lnkd.in/gHwAFHw3

A new UTS:ACRI Analysis, 'Australia-Taiwan relations: Prospects and limitations | Part 2: Diplomatic and economic links' by UTS:ACRI Adjunct Fellow and former Australian representative to Taiwan Kevin Magee discusses how Australia can navigate its one China policy and economic and trade relations with Taiwan, and how Canberra might respond to Taipei’s desire for greater diplomatic space, ahead of President-elect Lai Ching-te’s inauguration on May 20.   This is the second of a three-part series. The series is based on interviews the author conducted in late 2023 and early 2024 with representatives from Taiwan’s two main political parties, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Kuomintang (KMT), senior officials from Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of National Defense and Taiwanese academics and analysts.   Read: https://bit.ly/4bgMTDd Revisit Part 1: What does a Lai presidency mean for Australia and cross-Strait relations?: https://bit.ly/3y8RLLJ

My latest: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s surprising decision to step down is expected to throw the future of Sino-Japanese relations into deeper uncertainty, with experts predicting that Japan will continue its strategic coordination with the US to counter China. No matter who succeeds Kishida, observers said Japan’s next prime minister would face two pressing challenges abroad: rising geopolitical tensions with China, and Donald Trump’s potential return as president of the United States, Tokyo’s only treaty ally. Thanks Stephen Nagy, Zhiqun Zhu, Ryosuke Hanada for the thoughts! Read here: https://lnkd.in/gFegg2PH #japan #china #diplomacy #sinojapanrelations