IER’s Post

Staying resilient despite the War – Ukraine's experience. How does a country in a war implement reforms, develop new solutions, and build partnerships? This will be discussed during a panel session at the Civil Society Policy Forum at the Annual Meetings of International Monetary Fund and The World Bank. When: Tuesday, October 22 at 14:00-15:30 ET Where: Washington DC offline on the fields of the World Bank and IMF autumn meeting and online in Zoom (the registration is required) Language: English with simultaneous translation to French and Arabic Registration is available here: https://bit.ly/4gQUQCh Offline participation is restricted only to those participants, who are registered for the participation in Autumn IMF/WB meetings in general or Civil Society Policy Forum, in particular. During the panel “How to stay resilient during the War”, members of the Ukrainian RRR4U Consortium together with high representatives of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, we will discuss the following: How Ukraine is paving its way to resilience, Key reforms that supported the country's economy during the war and driving its recovery, How resilience is ensured in the energy sector, one of the most affected sectors The role of international partnership, What allowed the European Union to make a historic decision to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession. Moderator: Sanaa Nadeem, IMF Deputy Mission Chief for Ukraine Panelists: Oleksandra Betliy, Leading Research Fellow, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting Olena Pavlenko, President of DiXi Group think tank Karlis Smits, Lead Economist and Program Leader for Economic Policy for Eastern Europe, World Bank Roman Kachur, Senior advisor, World Bank The panel discussion will be followed by a Q&A session and comments from the participants. What you hear will be useful for many other countries facing external risks and threats. So register and join the discussion: here: https://bit.ly/4gQUQCh Session organizers: International Renaissance Foundation, RRR4U Consortium (Resilience, Reconstruction and Relief for Ukraine) – DiXi Group, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting,  Center for Economic Strategy, Institute for Analysis and Advocacy.  The activities of RRR4U are supported by a grant from the Open Society Foundations.

BRICS+ is taking on Western-led institutions like the IMF, but it’s an uphill battle. In his latest piece, Ibrahim Karsany breaks down the challenges they face: conflicting national priorities, tight finances, and serious geopolitical pressures, giving insight into this ambitious global shift. https://lnkd.in/dzzZvh85

This week in Washington I have been told that the International Monetary Fund leadership has read our op-eds when deciding against the IMF mission to Russia. If true, it shows that a voice and truth still matter in politics and policy. You can argue for your cause and persuade others even if the deck is stacked against you. Thank you very much the IMF for taking the right decision and not allowing to be played by Russian propaganda. Nataliia Shapoval and I have written two pieces - one with Jeff Jeff Sonnenfeld and @Steven Tian in Fortune, another the two of us in The Kyiv Independent. Here are the key arguments The IMF has decided to normalize its relations with Russia and change its policy of isolation without providing any reasons It is not “neutrality” but complicity in the war. Western nations previously pressured the IMF to drop the idea of sending missions in 2022 and 2023. Now, the IMF is reengaging with Moscow. This decision is a big diplomatic win for the Kremlin, even if the IMF is acting as though it's business as usual. The IMF claims to be outside politics, but its actions show a blatant disregard for international law and human rights. The invasion of Ukraine isn't a matter of policy debate—it's a crime. By engaging, the IMF sends a message that Russian actions can be overlooked Managing director Kristalina Georgieva and the IMF leadership are detached from the brutal realities of the ongoing war. They are focused on a vision for a postwar order in which peace and stability prevail But this vision is built on arrogance—the belief that Fund bureaucrats understand the future better than anyone else. In reality, by attempting to move toward normalization, they strengthen Russia today, prolonging the war and emboldening future aggressions The IMF sees Russia’s war on Ukraine as irrelevant to its policy mandate. Yet the war can’t be ignored even if one insists on viewing economics in isolation from everything else Russia's aggression is reshaping Europe's economy and destabilizing global markets. By choosing to look away fromthis grim reality, the Fund is effectively enabling Russia's actions The IMF's job is to promote global economic cooperation and stability, not to ensure the financial stability of an aggressor state. If it acts to boost Russia’s economy, the IMF will beadvancing Moscow’s ability to keep the war going The only way to bring this war to a just end is by crippling Russia’s war machine. The rest of the international community—minus the Fund, —understands this well. In its reports, the IMF prefers to avoid blaming Russia for the direct effects of its invasion: economic shocks in Europe, soaring food prices in Africa, and the suffering of millions of people The world cannot afford to let the IMF continue down this path of appeasement. The Fund must be held accountable for its actions. It cannot turn a blind eye to Russian atrocities while claiming to work toward global economic cooperation and stability

IMF supports Turkey's decision to join BRICS — fund representative Earlier Julie Kozak stated that the IMF supports the expansion of BRICS in order to take advantage of global integration WASHINGTON DC, September 12/ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) supports the expansion of BRICS, which the Turkish authorities have applied to join, Julie Kozak, director of the IMF's Communications Department, said at a regular briefing. When asked to comment on Ankara's intention to join the association, she replied: "With respect to the BRICS or any other groups of countries, our view is that improved and expanding international cooperation and deepening trade and investment ties among groups of countries should be welcomed and encouraged, provided that they aim at reducing fragmentation and reducing trade and investment costs among members. The decision to join such initiatives is a sovereign decision of each member country, and I'll leave it at that." Earlier Kozak stated that the IMF supports the expansion of BRICS in order to take advantage of global integration. On September 2, Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that the Turkish government had applied to join BRICS several months ago. According to the agency, expanding the alliance may be considered at the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 22-24, to which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been invited. The official representative of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, Omer Celik, said that Erdogan has spoken about his intention to join BRICS, but there are no specific decisions on Turkey's membership in the organization yet. On September 4, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said that BRICS would consider Turkey's application for full membership in the alliance. #business #finance #financialservices

Reversing international financial disintegration—Need for the E.U. to move This is to share that the Bretton Woods Committee (of which I’m a member) published a post of mine on the upcoming deliberations to review the distribution of IMF quota shares at https://lnkd.in/eVpHQ26f. This may appear to be a slightly odd topic. But it is at the centre of international governance. The IMF is the only formal arrangement on multilateral economic policy cooperation. It just does not work well anymore.   Multilateralism is in decline. Mounting geopolitical tensions and protectionism are indicative of diminishing interest in policy cooperation. This has many reasons. One could be that if countries do not have the say they believe they should have they are not willing to cooperate.   The quota shares are sort of the “capital” subscriptions of countries at the IMF. Importantly they determine how much voting power a country has and therefore how it can influence proceedings at the institution. The fundamental idea is that quota shares represent the relative position of a country in the international economy. It basically means the bigger the economy of the country the more say it has.   The E.U. has a combined quota share of 26.2 percent today compared with the U.S. of 17.4 percent and China of 6.4 percent. This compares to the nominal GDP of the E.U. of US$18.8 trillion, of the U.S. of US$28.8 trillion and of China of 18.5 trillion. The E.U. countries are in aggregate the most over-represented and China the most under-presented.   The E.U. therefore will have to move to allow a redistribution of quota shares. China should be the main beneficiary. Prevailing politics may not quite allow for this. It could mean that China is even less interested to engage in multilateral policy cooperation.   The rules-based system of which the IMF is one of its most important exponents is worth preserving. A meaningful quota reform at the IMF may well be the most important signal that this is a widely shared view. The IMF Annual Meetings will start on 21 October in Washington, D.C. It would be a good time for the E.U. member countries to put their quotas on the table for debate. #IMF #EU

The world is in danger of becoming more economically fragmented, warns board member Paul Hilbers of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to him, conflicts and tensions have been more frequent in recent decades. However, there has always been a tendency towards further globalization and cooperation. Now "the pendulum is in danger of swinging the other way," says the Dutchman, exactly 80 years after the 'birth' of the IMF. The growing division is visible in the rising trade tensions between, for example, the US and China. This year, many countries will also have elections. There seems to be a rise of radical right and nationalism, as mentioned by many experts. For instance, Marine Le Pen's party seems to be the big winner in the French parliamentary elections this weekend. Hilbers does not want to comment on specific political developments. "We have to be careful not to equate the opposition between left and right in politics with whether or not it is for or against international cooperation," he indicates. He does acknowledge that, in some cases, "it is not going in the right direction." "So there is more for us to do," he adds. Hilbers recalls that globalization has brought "enormous prosperity." "We will, therefore, do our best to keep trade and the financial system open, to bring countries together and keep them together. That is a task of the IMF." Read More: https://lnkd.in/e45ZuSUi

🌍 Rising geopolitical tensions & polarisation are causing international financial links to diverge, exemplified by falling foreign investments in the euro area and a decrease in sovereign debt held by geopolitically distant countries. ESM - European Stability Mechanism economists warn that further escalations could exacerbate geoeconomic fragmentation. #economy Gergely Hudecz, Alexandre Lauwers, Yasin Mimir. https://lnkd.in/eiAhJ5ga 

💡🌍 IMF visit to DRC draws attention to the country's economic challenges. Sovereignty vs. international cooperation: a crucial debate for the future. 🤔💰 #DRC #IMF #InternationalEconomy

#BRICS summit: Key takeaways from #Kazan declaration: On Ukraine, the Middle East, and Western sanctions... ON THE INTERNATIONAL #FINANCIAL SYSTEM'S REFORM: "We underscore the need to reform the current international financial architecture to meet the global financial challenges including global economic governance to make the international financial architecture more inclusive and just." ON BRICS #GRAIN EXCHANGE: "We welcome the initiative of the Russian side to establish a grain (commodities) trading platform within BRICS (the BRICS Grain Exchange) and to subsequently develop it including expanding it to other agricultural sectors." ON BRICS CROSS-BORDER #PAYMENT SYSTEM: "We recognise the widespread benefits of faster, low cost, more efficient, transparent, safe and inclusive cross-border payment instruments built upon the principle of minimizing trade barriers and non-discriminatory access. We welcome the use of local currencies in financial transactions between BRICS countries and their trading partners." ON BRICS CLEAR #DEPOSITARY: "We agree to discuss and study the feasibility of establishment of an independent cross-border settlement and depositary infrastructure, BRICS Clear, an initiative to complement the existing financial market infrastructure, as well as BRICS independent reinsurance capacity, including BRICS (Re)Insurance Company, with participation on a voluntary basis." ON FINANCIAL #INNOVATION: "We welcome the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism (ICM) focus on facilitating and expanding innovative financial practices and approaches for projects and programmes, including finding acceptable mechanisms of financing in local currencies." ON THE #IMF: "We reaffirm our commitment to maintaining a strong and effective Global Financial Safety Net with a quota-based and adequately resourced IMF at its centre." ON #G20: "We recognise the importance of the continued and productive functioning of the G20, based on consensus with a focus on result-oriented outcomes." Also on "PREVENTION OF FUTURE PANDEMICS" and "BIG CATS". Source: Reuters News Agency