Jalal S.’s Post

What are Trump’s chances of winning? Latest estimates put his chances between 54% and 66%. Early voting turnout is high in states like Nevada, and he's performing well in critical swing states like Georgia and Arizona - key for securing the Electoral College. But “the swing states have swayed,” according to Tri-County Independent, citing polls and odds. The most recent polls in Pennsylvania shifted in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris with Election Day just under a week away. Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground state. Trump is leading in a number of swing states, according to recent polls, which might result in electoral success should he lose the popular vote. Do note that odds and surveys are subject to change at any time. #electionday #uselection #2024election #donaldtrump

Millions of Americans are already casting ballots for the 2024 election, using mail and early in-person voting. Georgia and North Carolina are leading with record-breaking early turnouts. However, a high volume of mail-in ballots in key states like Pennsylvania may delay the final results until after Election Day. Early voting is becoming a significant part of our democratic process—keeping an eye on trends can help prepare for how results may unfold. Read more in The Washington Post. #Election2024 #NWYCforAmerica #PeoplesVoice #SmallBizBIGVoice

It is unfortunate that sensible election reforms had nearly zero traction in 2024. Ranked-choice voting (also known as preferential voting) has been known as tool for ensuring elected leaders have the support of a majority of voters since the nineteenth century. It's even been the norm in Denmark for about one hundred years. Yet voters in the United States consistently pan the adoption of ranked-choice voting in favor of the polarizing status quo. This is evidence that more effort is needed to educate citizens on not just the general goals of democracy, but in the mechanics, both at the micro level (i.e., making decisions in deliberative settings) and and at the macro level (i.e., electing representatives and other political leaders). A critical mass of citizens interested in improving our representative democracy and familiar with proven tools of democracy would be much more likely to succeed in securing much-needed reforms.

No Democratic candidate has won the White vote in a presidential election since 1964 (the year of Kamala’s birth). To put it plainly, there’s no President Carter, Clinton, Obama or Biden without Black and Brown voters. This election isn't going to be any different - but Black and Brown voters will make or break the difference. Check out our latest NWER to learn more about what the data is saying in key swing states.

What happens if white swing voters actually move towards Trump at the last moment? Could Black voters (as always) be the answer to delivering Harris a decisive election victory? For this issue of the New World Election Report, our team built a tool that pulls together data on swing state voters, broken out by race, to project how subtle shifts in voter behavior could impact the final result in the Electoral College. Spoiler Alert! The results say a lot about who the Harris campaign should be betting on in the next 45 days. Check out our election scenarios below and we’ll be back soon to go deeper on how to urgently move Black voters in the final weeks leading up to the election. https://lnkd.in/etXgT75x

43 days left in this election cycle and we can’t afford to place our bets on a losing strategy. A—B ‘s latest NewWorld Election Report results explore 3 possible scenarios that could make or break this election.

The other battle Author Headshot By Nick Corasaniti I’ve been reporting on efforts to undermine the election. There are some big clashes coming in November, both before and after Election Day. Donald Trump and his allies have spent years sowing doubts about the integrity of American elections. They’ve falsely claimed, including through lawsuits, that voter rolls are full of ineligible voters and that mail ballots are often improperly counted. They’ve installed sympathetic officials at the state and local level who are ready to act on these accusations. They have hundreds of lawyers on standby. At the same time, Democrats and voting rights organizations are preparing to counter such efforts. They’ve revamped a nationwide voter protection team and built a legal army of their own. Polls suggest the presidential contest will be close. In every state where the margin is small, both sides expect a post-election battle over the outcome. (Since 2020, local officials in eight states have refused to certify various results.) The maelstrom could endanger the swift outcome that many voters expect.

Analyzing the key election trends in Michigan reveals significant shifts in voter behavior: - Record Support: President Trump received the highest number of Republican votes ever, with a 16.2% increase from 2016, winning 28 of 30 rapidly growing counties. - Rural Appeal: Support in rural areas surged by 7.4% since 2012, showing a marked increase in Republican backing. - AB/EV Voting Trends: Absentee and early voting skyrocketed by 62% from 2018 to 2022. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for strategic political campaigning and forecasting future election trends. Check out our blog to learn more: https://lnkd.in/ewCbizBt

Does it make a difference if people vote by mail or wait until Election Day? Of course it does. The direct impact of mail-in votes on the election outcome — worth up to 2 points for Democrats in the past — boils down to some simple math. I break down the significance in early voting trends in my op-ed for The Hill, as well as explain why Pennsylvania is a key state in this election. Read my op-ed here: https://bit.ly/3AuyBl1

Less than three weeks before Election Day, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by fewer than three points in national polls. Because Republicans have a structural advantage in the Electoral College, this means the Presidential race is a pure tossup. To talk about the election, Isaac Chotiner speaks with Nate Cohn, who oversees the Times’ polling operation, about why Republicans have been making voter-registration gains, what we can learn from the Times’ large new poll of Black and Hispanic voters, and how pollsters are trying to predict what voter turnout will be this year. Read the interview: https://lnkd.in/gUNdrHj3