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Continuity or Change: Namibia faces historic election decision: Historic Moment Awaits Namibia Namibians stand on the brink of a historic moment. Tomorrow’s elections could see the nation elect its first woman president, witness an opposition party taking power for the first time, or usher in Namibia’s youngest president. This decision rests with the voters, who will choose between continuity with Swapo or political change. Namibia’s vice president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah could become the country’s first woman president if she wins the presidential election. However, she will need to win over a significant portion of the youth, who grapple with daily challenges – notably unemployment. Job Amupanda Her biggest rival to the State House is the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) leader Panduleni Itula, who could make history if he defeats his former comrade. Affirmative Repositioning (AR) leader Job Amupanda (37) is also looking at making history by being the youngest head of state. Namibians will be choosing a new president and members of the National Assembly. Fifteen presidential candidates and 22 political parties are running in the country’s eighth general election since Namibia’s first elections in 1989. While Swapo has ruled the country for 34 years, the party faces tough competition to garner over 50% of the vote to avoid forming a coalition with opposition parties. One of the key factors that could shape this year’s election is the youth vote. At least 900 000 out of 1.4 million voters are young people (born after 1982). AR spokesperson George Kambala yesterday described the elections as a crossroads for Namibia. “It means choosing a Namibia where every citizen has access to opportunities, dignity and justice. We are not here to maintain the status quo, we are here to dismantle and transform it,” he said. According to Kambala, a vote for AR means land redistribution, affordable housing, job creation and the dismantling of systemic corruption. “Our movement is rooted in the struggles of the people, and our presidential candidate has proven himself as a fearless leader who prioritises the needs of the marginalised and oppressed. “At stake is the fight against landlessness, youth unemployment and the persistent inequality that has plagued our nation for decades,” said Kambala. He noted that this election is about ending corruption and restoring faith in public institutions. “Namibia’s future depends on leadership that dares to put people before politics, and AR is that leadership,” Kambala said. Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) president McHenry Venaani told The Namibian on Sunday his party has a track record unmatched in terms of accountability and experience. “There is no political party in Namibia that has the legislative record, experience and maturity [in terms of] holding the government to account.” McHenry Venaani Venaani…

GHANA’S 2024 ELECTIONS: A BATTLE BETWEEN A VICE PRESIDENT AND A FORMER PRESIDENT 1. The system of Governance in Ghana is a democratic one and elections are held every four years. 2. Interestingly, and just like the recent presidential contest of the US elections, the significant choice is between a former President and a current Vice President. 3. The only difference in decision is that in Ghana the President is decided based on popular votes where the winner must accumulate 50.1% and not the electoral college style of the US. When is the Election Day? 4. Ghana's general elections is due on 7th December 2024. 5. The elections will conclude President Nana Akufo-Addo's second term. 6. The opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) will face off against up-and-coming third-party candidates. 7. 12 Presidential candidates will contest and 275 constituency will elect their Members of Parliament. What are the Key Dynamics? 9. Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia(NPP) His campaign is based on the continuation of important measures like the Free Senior High School program and digital innovation. 10. Former President John Dramani Mahama(NDC). He lost in 2016 and 2020 and his campaign focuses on “reset” of the economy and has pledged on a 24-hour economy module What are the economic focus? 11. High inflation, currency depreciation, and public debt. Both candidates aim to convince voters they are better suited to stabilize the economy. What are the regional dynamics? 12. NDC strongholds are found in the Volta and Northern regions, whereas the NPP is crucial in the Ashanti and Eastern regions. Greater Accra and Central, two swing regions, will probably decide the winner. The case of third party influence. 13. Alan Kojo Kyerematen (Alliance for Revolutionary Change) who until the formation of his political party was a stalwart in the NPP decided to leave the party arguing that the Presidential primaries were extensively biased towards him. 14. Nana Kwame Bediako popularly called CHEDDAR of (New Force Movement) could disrupt the two-party dominance. Though unlikely to win, they may force a runoff by drawing votes from key demographics. What is the electoral concern? 15. High economic hardship and mistrust of political elites is a major concern. For both the main parties, mobilising floating voters and ensuring high turnout in strongholds will be essential. 16. How well the candidates handle regional dynamics, voter mobilisation, and economic concerns will determine the outcome. What is the main anticipation? 17. With Ghana's reputation for smooth transitions and democratic resilience on the line, the election is anticipated to be hotly contested. 18. Regardless,Ghana remains a beacon of hope for strong democratic institutions in Africa and must hold on to the peace. #Ghana #ecowas #Ghanaelections #peace #security #defsec

Part 3 2024 African Elections: A Crucial Test for Democracy In case you missed out on the first 2 part , it is not too late yet, I'm wrapping up with the final summary of the 2024 Election: A Crucial Test for African Democracy in the Face of Instability. November and December would have the most elections on the continent. Please take a read: 1.Tunisia has experienced the worst decline in democratic governance since the last electoral cycle, rivaling the West African military coups. Attempts to restore democracy will be central as the country grapples with the aftermath of its democratic backsliding.   2.Mauritians will vote in their 12th general election since independence in November. The ruling Militant Socialist Movement (MSM) wants to keep its majority and give Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth a fresh five-year term. Mauritius is regarded as one of Africa's strongest democracies. 3.Also, this year, Namibia will gear up for a thrilling election. The country will elect a new president following the death of President Hage Geingob while in office. In November competitive outcomes are expected as the natural growth of a functioning multiparty system is growing in that country.   4. Ghana's political landscape is set for a shake-up with upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. As the nation inches towards its seventh presidential succession, the stakes are high for a smooth transition of power. It will be keenly contested as the former president seeks to return to power and the ruling government pursues to break the 8.   5. South Sudan's President Salva Kiir's tenure has been marked by postponed elections and armed conflict as he continues to serve as a de facto president since 2005. Challenges loom large, from establishing credible elections to combating corruption and fostering a professional military.   6. Guinea-Bissau faces a volatile electoral environment in 2024, generating and sustaining momentum for a stable administration and institutional safeguards against abuse of power are key. Guinea-Bissau's instability is complex. Civil society actors continue to advocate for measures that would increase openness and supervision.    7. In the wake of a military junta's takeover, Guinea charts its course back to democracy. With commitments to hold elections, the world watches closely as Guinea navigates this critical juncture. Colonel Mamady Doumbouya led a military junta that deposed Guinea's first democratically elected president, Alpha Condé, in September 2021. It would be the first junta leadership in recent times to take Guinea back to democratic rule in the December 2024 elections. These elections serve as more than just political milestones; they are litmus tests for the state of democracy in Africa. It will be closely watched by the international community as nations take center stage in shaping the continent's political landscape. 🗳️ Thank you!

Somalia's Elections: Obstacles, Hopes, and the Road Ahead The one-person, one-vote local council elections planned for June 2024 have not yet been achieved. The lack of political consensus among stakeholders is a major obstacle. A few months ago, Somalia’s parliament unanimously voted to reinstate universal suffrage, overhaul the electoral system, limit national political parties to three, eliminate the Prime Minister’s role, and form a single electoral management body. However, these changes risk indefinitely extending the mandates of federal member states and worsen the country’s democratic processes. Similar political moves in 2021 caused a significant impasse. Given the required electoral infrastructure and consensus, expecting local and national elections to occur at the same time under a new political order within the current government’s term is unlikely. So, what's changed? Last week, Jubbland's parliament amended its constitution, removed term limits and set the presidential term to five years. This could prompt other regional parliaments to follow suit, jeopardizing discussions between Somalia's federal government and its member states regarding electoral issues. Along with other colossal challenges, mainly security and the domination of domestic power struggles in political decision-making; organizing national, federal, and state elections in a short period would be a massive challenge. For example, in May 2023, Puntland, which did not support the proposed political system, conducted its own direct local council polls. However, by 2024, it resorted to a clan-based ballot for January's parliamentary and presidential elections. Somalia has not conducted national one-person, one-vote elections since 1969. In Mogadishu, implementing an agreed-upon election timeline requires time to develop technical capacity, including political party recognition, logistics and security. Even if election timing is agreed upon, broader political consensus on modality is unlikely, possibly forcing indirect elections. Also, substantial financial resources are key to these changes. Given the security transition, troop withdrawals, and the al-Shabaab threat, shifting from the clan-based political system is improbable within the next two years. Somalia's indirect clan voting system, in place for over a quarter century, requires cautious amendments to maintain the tribal political balance. Therefore, institutional fragility suggests that the grievances that have shaped this system still exist. What can be done now? 1.The government should agree separate timelines for federal and its member state elections. 2. Ideally, indirect parliamentary elections in south-central Somalia should occur by November 2024. 3. With political stakeholders, expand the indirect electoral system, involving a fixed percentage of the population in towns that security allows. And more…

As the dust settles on South Africa's historic seventh general elections, it is clear that the political landscape has shifted dramatically. For the first time since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has fallen below the 50% mark, securing just over 40% of the vote. This unprecedented outcome signals a pivotal moment in South Africa's democracy and holds profound lessons for political enthusiasts like myself worldwide. The rise of the MK Party, founded by former President Jacob Zuma, has dramatically altered the political equilibrium. Garnering 14.59% of the vote within just over five months of its inception, the MK Party not only siphoned support from the ANC but also outpaced the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, which secured 9.5% of the vote. The Democratic Alliance (DA) maintained its position as the official opposition with nearly 22% of the vote. Reflecting on these results, one cannot help but think of Nelson Mandela—Madiba—whose vision for a united, democratic South Africa seemed unassailable. Mandela likely could never have predicted that, a few years after his passing, the ANC would face the reality of coalition governance. This is a testament to the dynamism of democratic systems and the evolving priorities of the electorate. The elections underscore several pivotal lessons for political enthusiasts and observers. Firstly, the fluidity of voter loyalty has been vividly demonstrated, as evidenced by the significant shift in support from the ANC to the newly formed MK Party. This shift highlights the critical need for political entities to remain attuned to the evolving concerns and aspirations of their electorate, continually engaging and addressing these issues to maintain their base. The success of the MK Party, despite its recent formation, illustrates the dynamic nature of the political landscape, where new political forces can rapidly gain traction if they resonate with the public's sentiment. Moreover, the necessity of coalition governments, presents both challenges and opportunities for the South African political system. Coalition-building demands a collaborative approach, ensuring that a broader spectrum of voices is represented in governance. This shift underscores the importance of political adaptability and negotiation skills. Additionally, the IEC's affirmation of the elections as free and fair highlights the resilience and integrity of South Africa's democratic processes, reinforcing the crucial role of transparent and credible elections in maintaining public trust and political stability. Being the biggest economy in Africa, South Africa's political stability and democratic processes are foundational to successfully implementing the #AfCFTA hence, the need to be attuned to the leadership shift & developments. As political enthusiasts, we must learn from this and remain vigilant in fostering a vibrant, inclusive & responsive democratic society. Asante Sana 👏

Today's #governancebythenumbers comes as we enter the elections that will usher in the 7th administration of a democratic South Africa, I present my predictions of the elections outcomes in terms of the national leaderboard (see image) and provincial government make-up for all 9 provinces: Top 10: 1) ANC (52,08%): continuing its decline as in previous elections, sped up by load-shedding and the MKP splinter group but galvanizing traditional supporters and gaining some new voters thanks to Palestinian solidarity, a“cleaner” image with RET forces like Magashule and Zuma no longer in the leadership core, a reformed Youth League, Women’s League. 2) DA (16,68%): continuning its rapid decline with ACTSA taking its liberal centre voters and VF taking more from the right. PA and NCC will also dent its W Cape support 3) EFF (12,10%): The only growing party in the top 3 will see significant growth but momentum not enough to overtake DA and growth in KZN reduced by the emergence of MKP. 4) MKP (4,55%): Big splash in KZN where they will force ANC below 50%, some considerable support in Gauteng too but very little in the rest of the country as it is seen as tribal project for fringe ANC disgruntled RET forces. 5) IFP (3,53%): The party will continue on its growth from the municipal elections and will benefit from the ANC-MK infighting and tribal solidarity wave. 6) ACTIONSA (3,23%): Municipal elections put them within range of IFP in size, will pick up more votes nationally as well, will still be mainly a Gauteng party 7) VF Plus (2,33%): Will continue to gouge the DA right leaning voters while maintaining its own voting blocks 8) PA (1,34%): Increased national profile will see it increasing its support, especially in Gautemg and W Cape where it will help push DA below 50% 9) ACDP (0,55%): will continue to shrink but staunch voters will see it retain at least 2 votes in the National Assembly. 10) NFP (0,54%): Loyal KZN voting block to see it retain 1 seat in the National Assembly and join a host of 1 seat parties, listed as “also rans”: Also rans: RISE, UDM, ATM, BOSA, Al-Jamaa In terms of provinces: A) Eastern Cape: ANC outright win, DA distant second, EFF third B) Free State Province: ANC outright win, DA distant second, EFF in third C) Gauteng: ANC (48%) led coalition with EFF (18%), DA and MK next biggest parties D) Kwazulu-Natal: Coalition government, leading parties: ANC (45%), IFP (21%), MKP (12%), DA (11%) E) Limpopo: ANC outright win, EFF distant second, DA 3rd F) Mpumalanga: ANC outright win, EFF distant second, DA close 3rd G) Northern Cape: ANC outright win, DA distant second, EFF third H) North-West: ANC outright win, EFF second, DA third I) Western Cape: DA led coalition: DA (48%), ANC (32%) , EFF (6%): coalition partners VFPlus, ACDP Summary: 3 provinces to be led by coalitions (Gauteng, W Cape and KZN), 6 to be majority ANC governments. Let me know what your predictions are: Ke laka leo. - @Akanirelo

#What Does an Election Mean to the Citizen of Namibia? General elections are due to be held in Namibia on 27 November 2024 to elect a new president and members of the National Assembly. For Namibian citizens, an election is more than just a civic exercise, it is a critical moment of participation in democracy. Voting is a platform where every eligible individual has the opportunity to influence the leadership, policies, and direction of the country. Through elections, we as Namibians can choose representatives who we can entrusted with the responsibility to govern and make decisions on behalf of us. It is a chance to hold leaders accountable, voice concerns, and set the path for the nation's future. #Why Should Every Citizen Vote? Empowerment and Representation voting gives you us a voice in shaping the future of our community, region, and country. When we vote, we choose leaders who reflect our needs, priorities, and aspirations. Without voting, our voices are left unheard, and decisions will be made without our inputs. Holding Leaders Accountable voting enables us citizens to evaluate the performance of our leaders. If leaders are failing to meet expectations whether it's addressing poverty, youth unemployment, or infrastructure elections provide us with opportunity to replace them with individuals committed to making meaningful change. Through elections we also protecting our democracy by participating in elections, citizens protect and strengthen democracy. A high voter turnout ensures that the government reflects the will of the people and that democracy remains vibrant, inclusive, and participatory. Building the Future the decisions made today have long-lasting effects. Voting is an opportunity to influence policies that will benefit not just the current generation but also future generations. It is a way to fight for better education, healthcare, job opportunities, and a more prosperous nation. #What Happens If Some Don’t Vote? Weak Representation can be the result if many citizens choose not to vote, it weakens the democratic process. A small, unrepresentative group ends up deciding the future for everyone, meaning the majority views, needs, and concerns may not be reflected in leadership. Stagnation and Lack of Change this can come by not voting, citizens allow the status quo to persist. If you're dissatisfied with the way things are whether its poverty, unemployment, or poor service delivery not voting means you are missing the chance to demand change through your vote. Low voter turnout signals disengagement from governance. When fewer people vote, the connection between the government and its citizens weakens, leading to a government that may not prioritize people's needs. #The Importance of Coming Together to Create a Formidable Voice When we as citizens come together and vote in large numbers, we create a formidable voice that cannot be ignored. #The Namibian Newspaper #New Era Newspaper 📰 #2024Novermber #Election

The expectations for the Somaliland elections include a focus on stability, transparency, and the continuation of its democratic processes. 1. Political Stability: There is hope that the election will maintain the relative political stability Somaliland has enjoyed in comparison to other parts of the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia. Despite delays, the peaceful transition of power in previous elections has built optimism that this trend will continue. 2. Voter Participation: With a history of relatively high voter turnout, Somaliland is expected to see active engagement from its citizens. The country has invested in voter education and mobilization campaigns, and there’s a sense of civic pride tied to the election process. 3. Electoral Integrity: The election’s credibility will depend on its transparency and fairness. There are expectations for the Electoral Commission to ensure that the election is free from fraud or manipulation. The presence of local observers and international monitors is also expected to play a role in boosting the legitimacy of the process. 4. Political Party Dynamics: Somaliland’s political landscape is dominated by three main parties: the ruling party (Kulmiye), the opposition (Waddani), and the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID). Competition between these parties will likely be fierce, and the election is expected to be a tightly contested battle. 5. International Recognition: While the election is seen as a key step in consolidating Somaliland’s self-declared independence, its international legitimacy remains a point of contention. The ongoing lack of recognition as an independent state by most of the international community could complicate the process, but internally, Somaliland continues to operate as a de facto independent entity.

Why do I now believe the idea of “One Nation, One Election” shouldn’t be pursued? The Union Cabinet has accepted the “One Nation, One Election” (ONOE) proposal. I once supported this idea, thinking it could reduce electoral incentives fueling communal hatred and divisive politics by ending the constant election cycle. However, after deeper reflection, I now see that the risks far outweigh the potential benefits. One of my primary concerns with ONOE is the threat it poses to India's federal structure. Our states have distinct political, economic, and social contexts, and holding a unified election risks imposing national narratives on regional issues. This could marginalize local concerns, weaken regional parties, and erode state autonomy. Synchronizing elections would turn into a referendum on national issues rather than addressing regional needs. This undermines the delicate balance of our federal system. Frequent elections may be excessive but keep governments responsive to the public’s evolving concerns. Concentrating all elections into one cycle could lead to complacency among politicians, as the long gap between elections would reduce the pressure to address public grievances. Staggered elections currently ensure continuous accountability across different states, fostering a responsive governance system that ONOE could disrupt. Apart from the logistical challenges of ONOE, another significant risk is the erosion of democratic discourse. Currently, staggered elections allow for sustained political engagement and debate across regions. With synchronized elections, national issues could dominate the discourse, sidelining important regional concerns. This would diminish India’s political pluralism, a strength that has long fueled its democratic vibrancy. Moreover, the stakes in a single synchronized election would be higher, likely intensifying the use of divisive tactics by political parties. Far from reducing polarization, ONOE could heighten it, as parties vie for power at both national and state levels. Would this lead to an escalation in religious, caste, and ethnic divides during a do-or-die election cycle? Wouldn't it push parties to exploit such divides even more aggressively? While ONOE may seem like a quick fix for India’s fragmented elections, the long-term risks—diluted federalism, reduced accountability, logistical challenges, and weakened democratic discourse—make it flawed. India’s democracy thrives on its political, cultural, and institutional diversity. Does a one-size-fits-all solution like ONOE fit such a complex system? Shouldn’t we focus on more nuanced approaches to address political violence and hatred while preserving the federal balance and diversity that define India? #ONOE #politicalscience #law #democracy #electoralreforms #policy #federalism

🇺🇾 Uruguay's Primary Elections: Key Takeaways for Investors and Businesses 🗳 Last Sunday, Uruguay held its primary elections, with the center-left opposition party Frente Amplio (FA) emerging as the most voted option. Yamandú Orsi will be FA’s candidate in the general elections on October 27th, competing head-to-head against Álvaro Delgado of the incumbent party (Lacalle Pou can't run as consecutive terms aren't allowed). Here are some key issues investors, businesses, and actors with operations in the country should be aware of: ✅ Competitive Election Landscape: The election is expected to be close and vcompetitive, with a slight lead for Frente Amplio according to polls. Despite reasonably high growth projections and Lacalle Pou’s relatively high popularity, corruption scandals within his administration and key allies seem to be tipping the balance in favor of the FA. ✅ Political Stability: Unlike other Southern Cone countries, electoral uncertainty in Uruguay does not necessarily translate into political uncertainty. A FA victory in October is unlikely to bring radical economic reforms that could significantly damage the country’s economy. ⚠️ Constitutional Reform Plebiscite: More critical is the plebiscite on a constitutional reform that will be held simultaneously with the elections. The measure would abolish private retirement savings and establish a minimum retirement age of 60. This has raised significant alarms among investors, as it could bring: ⛔️ financial risk in the long run ⛔️ reputational risk in the short term, damaging its image as a stable country with clear rules. 📊 However, the approval of the plebiscite is considered unlikely according to opinion polls. 💡 Interested in more insights on Uruguay or any other Latin American countries? Feel free to dm me! London Politica's Latin America Programme will provide you and your organisation with the tools you need to make informed decisions in this evolving landscape. https://lnkd.in/dMQ979EP