Kevin McCarten’s Post

Just finished this book by the author of Liars Poker and Moneyball, about the rise and fall of the crypto-currency exchange FTX and its founder Sam Blankman-Fried. It describes his life, maths focused education, time as a trader, signing up to “Effective Altruism” (EA), then cryptocurrency, establishing FTX, moving to Bahamas, generating enormous financial backing, followed by huge cash inflows often deployed on sponsorships and high risk investments. The author was lucky to be close to the main characters as the business failed and the investigators were called in. This is a book about vision, ambition, enthusiasm, “probabilistic decision making” and courage. It is also about greed, corruption, loss and criminality. Takeaways: 1. SBF has a gift for numbers but no gift for rigor, order and discipline. He has a delusional superiority complex that manages to wrap together innocence, naivety, arrogance and self-consumption. 2. FTX/Alameda were two well-conceived money-making machines that went off the rails due to: too much focus on the code and not enough focus on the ethics, lack of basic controls, and absence of “serious adults in the room” 3. FTX/Alameda and their ventures were driven by the greed of investors, SBF and many of the employees, self-justified by the cloak of “Effective Altruism”. 4. “Effective Altruism” (you need to search) is often the fig-leaf support and justification for greedy people 5. Blindly making “Expected Value” the basis for decision making is dangerous when potential upsides of (low probability outcomes) are huge but the probability of ruin is high. 6. Crypto-currencies and exchanges, and everything associated with them, should be avoided by everybody other than those comfortable with losing 100% of their money. 7. The Liquidation industry is just as greedy: in this case gorging itself on the remnants of FTX/Alameda. Maybe SBF was right when claiming that if he could make sure all stakeholders were made whole. 8. The Regulators need to act more forcefully and promptly to protect the small guy with effective regulation (even thoughI have limited sympathy with those that gambled and lost). 9. Money blinds people. As SBF/FTX splashed the cash, celebrities, the rich and famous and world leaders beat the path to SBF’s door to bask in the reflected glory. This is classic Lewis: he provides easy to understand explanations of a complex subject. His understanding of the financial system combined with his gift for understanding people make for great story telling. As he ends up in the “scene of the crime” - the FTX encampment in Bahamas- he provides a running commentary as the business implodes and the investigators arrive , interviewing the main characters including hours with SBF. The book seems to suffer from “get it out quick after the FTX failure”. It is a bit light weight but easy to read. On the Edge provides deeper technical understanding and is less “reality tv”. 7/10

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Stanley Peltzen

Chief Executive Officer at Atrium Consulting Inc

2mo

Every entrepreneur should read it.

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