KeyBank Commercial’s Post

Our 2024 sentiment report on how inflation is impacting middle market companies #iamkey #middlemarket #economy

As global shocks subside, global inflationary dynamics are becoming more region- and country-specific. This is likely to lead to divergences in monetary policy. As we exit the shock of 2020–2023, a rethink of global inflationary trends is appropriate. 👉 While executives should continue to keep an eye on global sources of inflation such as oil prices, they should increasingly turn to domestic ones, such as nominal wage growth or the strength of domestic demand. 👉 Divergent trends in inflation will, in turn, dictate the strength and speed of the recovery in purchasing power: the less time consumers spend in an environment of rapidly increasing prices, the more they can rebuild their purchasing power—the opposite holds true. 👉 Domestic drivers of inflation will also dictate the path of interest rates and, with that, the strength of activity in rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and manufacturing. Read our full view on the impact of desynchronizing inflationary patterns in different regions 👇 And then sign up to The Lens for weekly insights delivered straight to your inbox: https://lnkd.in/gxu8jgPS #globalinflation #inflationarytrends #monetarypolicy #riskmanagement

This cautious approach comes amid mixed economic signals, including varying inflation rates and labor market strength. The Fed is navigating these complexities with a clear focus on long-term stability rather than short-term adjustments. 🧭🔍 #EconomicPolicy #FedDecision

🙄 🙄 🙄 Talking points are annoying. Why did inflation explode? Was any ONE person to blame? ----------------> You won't believe this People want to categorize highly complex problems in to one neat little box. Human nature I guess. 😳 Did you know?? Many countries experienced high inflation at the same time as the U.S. Inflation growth was virtually identical. The reason inflation exploded has zero to do with any ONE person. There are many reasons why this happened. Most economists attribute the recent surge in inflation to a combination of factors: 😳 Supply Chain Disruptions: COVID-19 disrupted global supply chains, causing shortages and driving up prices as demand exceeded supply. 😳 Pent-up Demand: Reopening economies led to a surge in consumer spending, straining supply chains and pushing prices higher. 😳 Labor Shortages: Labor market imbalances and rising wages increased production costs, which were often passed on to consumers. 😳 Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus: Government stimulus and low-interest rates boosted consumer spending, increasing the money supply and inflationary pressures. 😳 Energy Prices: Rising oil and gas prices have significantly driven inflation, affecting costs across many goods and services. 😳 Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted energy supplies, further elevating prices. 😳 Consumer Behavior Shifts: A shift from services to goods during the pandemic strained production and contributed to price increases. These factors, driven by a mix of supply constraints, increased demand, and external shocks, have collectively fueled recent inflation. Be a critical thinker. . SumoLab | Total Business Growth | Jerry-Rigged Business Marketing Podcast | #inflation #talkingpoint #criticalthinking

Inflation rates are coming down. The impact on executive moves? That depends where you are. 📊✨ Read about it here, powered by TALNT data. https://lnkd.in/eKjVZAdr #Leadership #CareerDevelopment #Inflation #Insight 

The latest insights from TALNT

After Monday's global market slump triggered by disappointing U.S. labor market data, many stock exchanges have since recovered. However, the event has reignited fears of a potential U.S. recession. J.P. Morgan increased its recession odds for 2024 from 25% to 35%, while the yield curve inversion suggests a 56% likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months. The yield curve, which has been inverted since July 2022, historically signals recessions, though its reliability is now questioned ! 💡💡 Additionally, the Sahm Rule indicator also points to a potential recession based on recent employment data. The Federal Reserve's challenge remains to engineer a "soft landing" by balancing interest rates to curb inflation without stifling the economy, with Monday's market reaction possibly influencing their decision.

🚀 Exciting developments in the market today as we dive into the highly anticipated PCE inflation data for January. Is this the turning point we've been waiting for, or just another blip on the radar? 📊 Initial reactions were mixed as the PCE report coincided with a notable increase in jobless claims, raising questions about which factor truly influenced market movements. With Chicago PMI data also making waves, the market seems hungry for gloomier economic indicators. 💡 Closer scrutiny of the jobless claims data reveals interesting insights, especially as it preceded the delayed release of the PCE figures. The delayed response to the positive momentum in claims suggests a nuanced relationship between economic data and market reactions. 📉 The drop in yields following the Chicago PMI data hints at a potential preference for negative economic news among investors. This shift in behavior raises speculation about the market sentiment and its implications for future trading strategies. 🔮 Looking ahead, it will be fascinating to see how the market digests and responds to the latest data points. Will today's numbers pave the way for a significant market shift, or are we in for more volatility in the weeks to come? #marketanalysis #economics #datainsights #forecasting #investmentstrategies 📈

Can the Fed cut rates when inflation and labor market data are still strong? New York Life Investments' Global Market Strategy team shares their view alongside new market-moving data. Watch the full video: https://bit.ly/4cDlLiC #MarketInsights | #MacroPulse | #MacroInsights | #Inflation