With Ireland adding 800k jobs every 10 years, a 30% growth a decade in jobs and a number constrained by legacy undersupplies in regions, low housing & infrastructure and lowering SME credit, the next ten years sees at least another 800,000 jobs.
Why?
When / if the forthcoming NPF updates to include the higher jobs runrate than original to include the impact of higher wealth, higher housing supply to EU levels, higher infrastructure to EU levels, lower carbon and a rebalancing of regions, Ireland is easily 6m people by 2033 and 7m by 2040, as 1.3m young not owning getting access to homes means a population explosion of babies (adding 100k extra babies a decade) & some of the young are moved back proactively into their towns / communities, let’s assume 10%, or 100k.
That’s 3m homes by 2033. 3.5m to 3.8m by 2040.
Or, 90,000 homes a year. Which to get to 65% young home ownership, removing the existing homes of 15,000 a year, would be 58,000 first time buyers of new homes a year.
And what about carbon, give the high carbon sector?
70% less carbon in the build & energy of the home & transport of those 900,000 homes every 10 years saves 45 million tonnes and creates whole new green SME sectors, than pay the fine for missing targets. Plus, children of the future deserve action and a better planet, rather than the inaction presently.
Doing so in regions ahead of the curve, with fast build factories and JV’s with those already delivering at scale sees ramp up of speed and social value urgency that communities youth require, as the Housing Commision rightly points out; it’s an emergency, and moreso in regions, where the rate of young first time buyer ownership is 50% less per person than in other countries.
But how to finance?
Our community cash in communities.
Taping in to what looks to be, by 2033, the c€400bn cash on deposit to fund growth via SSIA’s that recycle cash into a housing fund, than be dependent on international finance pushed by lobbyists, as 15% of cash would be €60bn a year in mortgage & development value for rent to own or social homes.
That means we have the opportunity to create supply in hinterlands (where’s highest % undersupply), towns and city cores of homes, infrastructure & energy ahead of that curve.
What’s it by county?
See below the opportunity value, by county, to close the gap on EU levels by 2033.
It’s c €150bn undersupply opportunity in housing on current market values and c€80bn wealth gain for young that with the right people and a much more realistic, less pessimistic National plan, unlocks a generation of wealth for young people in every county. Not just Dublin/outer Dublin. Investing in infrastructure in regions ahead of this growth unlocks growth on far lower cost than Dublin.
