Liz Powell’s Post

The 2024 election was a major setback for Democrats. They lost the presidency decisively (by 21st-century standards), and Republicans may have one of their biggest Senate majorities in decades. Then there’s the House, where dozens of races remain undecided. It’s quite possible Democrats could gain seats there, and it’s still within the realm of possibility that they could flip the GOP-controlled chamber. It would be a consolation prize, sure. But it would be a substantial one that would give Democrats a major check on President-elect Donald Trump’s and the GOP’s grip on power. So where do things stand? #can #democrats #still #win #House #of #Congress #with #several #seats #undecided #yet

House Republicans will hold internal leadership elections for the 119th Congress on Wednesday, with some surprises in store. Conservatives are considering a last-minute challenge to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), and President-elect Trump's pick of House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be United Nations Ambassador is setting off a scramble for her position. The closed-door leadership elections will be conducted by secret ballot, with a candidate forum in the morning and elections in the afternoon. Speaker nominee Johnson is seeking to keep his gavel, emphasizing continuity of leadership. However, he faces a potential protest challenger due to conservative frustrations with his handling of spending and policy issues. House Republican Conference Chair Stefanik's nomination has opened up the No. 4 House GOP leadership slot, with Reps. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) and Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) vying for the messaging-focused role. Chair of the Republican Policy Committee Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) is seeking another term as policy committee chair, facing a challenge from Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) who promises to strengthen relationships with the Senate and Trump Administration. House Republican Conference Secretary Several candidates are seeking the secretary position if Rep. McClain wins the conference chair race, including Reps. Mark Alford (R-Mo.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), and Erin Houchin (R-Ind.). Uncontested races House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), and House GOP Vice Chair Blake Moore (R-Utah) are all seeking second terms in their respective roles. #ConservativePolitics #ElectionLaw. Read more: https://lnkd.in/g39Xf7xU

Dive into FOCUS' post-election report to get a detailed look at this year's most impactful legislative races across the country. With Republicans making surprising gains, breaking Democratic strongholds and flipping key seats, the balance of power has shifted in states like Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Democrats saw critical victories of their own, with promising results in Arizona and strategic wins to block GOP supermajorities in North Carolina and Wisconsin. Uncover the nuances of these developments, from Vermont’s shifted supermajority to the uncalled races that could still change everything.

https://lnkd.in/e5WuKdhR As the 2024 presidential election approaches, I think the most likely scenario is the double flip of Congress—with Democrats retaking the House and Republicans taking control of the Senate. A Republican-controlled Senate would likely block much of President Harris's legislative agenda, while a Democratic House would counterbalance President Trump's policy goals and ramp up investigations into his administration. In either scenario, how will this gridlock shape the next four years? #USPolitics #2024Elections #DividedGovernment #PoliticalAnalysis #Gridlock #Congress #TheDoubleFlip

What Senate polls could indicate about Biden's chances For FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver offers some fresh insights into the presidential race from a Senate perspective: "...Democratic candidates have led in most recent polls of key Senate races like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin* even as President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in the very same polls. today, split-ticket voting is quite rare. In 2016, every state voted for the same party for Senate that it did for president, and in 2020, every state but one (Maine) did. There's no guarantee that he'll be able to do it, but if Biden can just win over every supporter of Casey, Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego and Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin,** he has a good chance of erasing his deficit in those states. even if every not-Biden Democrat and every not-Republican-senator Trump supporter comes home in the end, the election in most states is going to come down to which way a more unpredictable group of voters breaks — the truly undecided." https://lnkd.in/eux6KeFk #USpolitics #politics #USelection #JoeBiden #DonaldTrump #USSenate #polls #forecasting #forecasts

Love being able to monitor these races and share our thoughts on this important election. Stay tuned for a webinar in November that will recap the implications for your business.

For those interested in the primaries in CT, check out this insightful article by the Connecticut Mirror 's Mark Pazniokas covering the races. 🗳️ Link: [CT Primary Election Races](https://lnkd.in/eCndDKyc)

Are Republican women's groups in sync with their party? We've been watching races where women are running this cycle, and according to our analysis through May 21 primaries, Republicans are nominating many fewer women than Democrats, this cycle. One factor likely contributing to that is on display tonight. In several races, female candidates have backing from women's groups (like VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, or Winning for Women), but they are running up against candidates endorsed by Trump or the NRCC. Tonight in Kansas's 3rd District, Karen Crnkovich has an endorsement from VIEW PAC, but the NRCC and a slew of party leaders endorsed Prasanth Reddy. In Michigan's 8th, VIEW PAC and Winning for Women are supporting Mary Draves, but Paul Junge (who lost in 2022) has Trump's endorsement. And in Washington's 3rd District, VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, and Winning for Women are backing Leslie Lewallen, but Joe Kent has Trump's endorsement (Kent also lost in 2022). Parties have factions, of course, but it is interesting to see several examples of women's groups and other GOP groups in direct opposition, tonight, in some potentially consequential races. —Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor https://lnkd.in/gjbU3pEf

I am a NO on #colorado Prop 131. As a former state chair of the Colorado Forward Party and against the position of the national Forward Party, why?  It’s simple.  Prop 131 is designed to weaken political parties.  All parties. Not just the ones you currently dislike.  Prop 131’s backers prefer a system which favors wealthy independents, not organized ones. We attained party status in Colorado to provide a community for voters who don’t connect with the two major parties.  We have the national infrastructure to power the independent vote. We attract the politically homeless, former #Democrats and #Republicans alike along with #independents. We can be the political muscle for electoral reform organizations like RCV4CO.    So isn’t Prop 131 the type of political reform we need?  That’s the majority opinion of the Colorado and national Forward Party’s leadership.  But there’s a reason several of Colorado’s political parties do NOT support Prop 131.  When its backers say “political parties have too much power” they mean all political parties - not just the Democrats and Republicans.  When they first crafted the language for what would become Prop 131 they included proposals to eliminate the ability for minor parties to nominate candidates through the process of assembly, a right that has existed in Colorado for 30 years.  Why?  Because they want fewer names on the final ballots, not more. Plutocrats, like major parties, want as little competition as possible. Political parties play an essential role.  People organize so that everyone has a chance to shape our democracy, not just the wealthy.  Prop 131 limits the ability of smaller, newer parties like Forward to compete in the general election as they will likely be cut off in the Final Four primary stage 131 proposes.  There are aspects of Prop 131, like RCV in the general election, which present badly needed reform.  But why not utilize eg multi-winner RCV  in the primary election if the goal is to reflect the broader consensus of the people?  Prop 131 paves the election path for highly resourced individuals with agendas informed not by party membership or even necessarily their communities, but by direct instruction from their wealthy backers. Forward created a home for Coloradans determined not to give up our country to left or right extremists and to secure a stable democracy.  Not by storming the Capitol or burning our cities down.  But by building something new and promising. Something that attracts candidates pledged to civility, the rule of law, and compromise for the better of their communities.  Something we can be for, not just against.  Join us!  But please don’t kneecap us just as we’re getting started.  We need to reform the system, but not the way of Prop 131.  It will throw the proverbial baby out with the (dirty) bath water.  Vote NO on Prop 131. Green Party of the United States Colorado Democratic Party Ron Tupa, M.A.

Is Hakeem Jeffries on the verge of becoming the next Speaker of the House? While most people are paying attention to the Presidential election, James Roguski would like to encourage you to pay attention to the 435 congressional races nationwide. The House will likely fall into Democratic hands regardless of who wins the presidency. 414 (207+207) of the 435 Congressional races are relatively lopsided and not very much in doubt. These races are evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. That leaves only 21 Congressional races that are considered to be competitive. Twelve of the Congressional races involve incumbent Republicans. Seven of the Congressional races involve incumbent Democrats; two are in districts where the Democratic incumbent did not seek re-election. If all 9 Democrats win their Congressional races and only 2 of the 12 Republicans lose to their Democratic opponent, the Democrats could gain control of the House of Representatives by the slimmest possible margins (218-217).