Magnus Hornø Gottlieb’s Post

Weekly power simulation, week 6 of 2024 Another very windy week, almost exclusively powered by renewable energy. Interestingly, Thursday night saw wind and solar generation drop to almost zero for a few hours. Here, the model's five hours' worth of storage kicks in to fill the gap. But what's important is not so much whether the storage can fill the gap entirely - what's important is its ability to reduce the need for other generation or imports. In this case, the shortfall is reduced from app. 8.4GW to 3.2GW. By no means a trivial task, but there's a huge difference between needing 3.2GW, and needing 8.4GW. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

🍃Which RES capacity mixes achieve the #emissions reduction, #renewable energy integration, and #energy autarky targets in a cost-effective way? 📄30 days left to download for free our paper entitled “Least-cost or sustainable? Exploring power sector transition pathways”, published at Elsevier’s Energy Journal, which aims to answer this question: https://lnkd.in/dHqT5Ssd Highlights: ✅ 6.5Mt of #emissions from power generation, 80% renewable energy in the generation mix and low dependency from #naturalgas by 2030, can be achieved in Greece with a capacity mix featuring at least 53% wind farms with respect to the total #wind and #solar capacity. ✅ For cost-efficient achievement of these targets, wind capacity shares should not exceed 60%. ✅ The pathway towards capacity mixes with 53-60% wind and 40-47% solar capacity requires accelerated bureaucratic procedures to keep up with the delignification plan. #REPowerEU #Fitfor55 #EUGreenDeal #energytransition #solarpower #windenergy #cleanenergy #energyefficiency #energycrisis

Weekly power simulation, week 22 of 2024 Let's talk about ramp speeds. How fast a change in generation (or demand) can the energy system cope with? This Sunday, high output from wind and solar, along with the low weekend demand meant spot prices went negative in Denmark for 3 hours, between 13:00 and 16:00. Most large renewable generators reacted by ramping down generation, though some kept producing, probably due to PPAs. This can be seen as a massive 'spike' in our simulation on Sunday, as renewable generation ramps down a massive 10.8GW in a single hour(!). And while this is in fact just a functioning market, it does beg the question: How fast ramp up/down can the grid handle? Looking at historical data, April 10th this year jumps out as the fastest ever 'ordinary' ramp-down rate of renewable generation (i.e. excluding curtailment and negative prices). This happened as winds died down in the late afternoon, just as the sun was setting - compounding solar and wind's ramp-down. In just four hours, between 14:00 and 19:00, renewable output dropped from 7.7GW to 2.7GW. In just 30 minutes, between 16:45 and 17:15, 870MW went offline in a grid app. 4.5GW demand(!). What 'saved' us was primarily Danish interconnections, ramping from exporting 2.5GW to importing 0.6GW in the same time span. It does have it's advantages being as interconnected to neighboring countries as Denmark. Of course, in our 'future' scenario, storage and demand side flexibility will play an increasing role in coping with such fast changes in output from solar and wind, potentially even more than our interconnectors. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

As renewable energy becomes more prevalent, how can we ensure the electric grid withstands the impact of extreme weather? In a first-of-its-kind study, analysts from NREL and Sharply Focused modeled scenarios to understand the answers to these questions and change the way we define "extreme weather." The study found that traditional extreme weather events don't necessarily pose greater challenges to a grid with more wind and solar power. However, prolonged moderate weather conditions, like several days of low wind and solar energy during hot or cold spells, could create new challenges. This highlights the need for new strategies to ensure the reliability and resilience of a future renewable energy grid. Read more: https://bit.ly/4c9YcNs #RenewableEnergy #ExtremeWeather #WindAndSolarPower

W𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲?⁣ ⁣ ⁣ ⁣ Here's another insight from #EUSEW24 about the contribution of Solar Thermal energy to the Solar Mandate:⁣ ⁣ ⁣ ⁣ 1.- 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝗳 of the energy consumption in the EU is for heating.⁣ ⁣ 2.- Solar Thermal makes us less dependent on the electrical grid.⁣ ⁣ 3.- Solar Thermal is the European solar energy, as it's 𝗘𝗨-𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲.⁣ ⁣ What do you think? Do we need all forms of renewable energy to succeed in the energy transition? #HeatisHalf #decarbonization #EnergyTransition #SolarThermal

Weekly power simulation, week 16 of 2024 Yet another week with solar and wind powering future-Denmark 100% of the time. Last week saw sunny spring weather here in Denmark, with most trees now budding out, and Danes enjoying the nice (albeit still not too warm) outside. The energy system was dominated by daily solar spikes upwards of 15GW, on top of a relatively consistent 'base layer' of onshore and offshore wind. In total, 2.7 TWh renewable electricity fed into the grid, of which roughly half to cover regular demand, a third available for PtX - and 0.4TWh exported or curtailed. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 11 of 2024 No such thing as perfect in the energy system - it's all trade offs and balances... HOWEVER, last week was pretty darn near perfect in our simulation. Wind and solar directly made up 97.2% of Danish power demand, but when adding storage and demand-side flexibility, Denmark was powered by 100% solar and wind last week! 97.2% renewable share year-to-date. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

Weekly power simulation, week 23 of 2024 Another beautiful week in the Danish energy system, with lots of wind and solar, making up 100% of power demand, plus enabling hydrogen and power-to-X to run at 91% capacity. Roughly 20% of renewable generation is 'excess' to be either exported, or curtailed. Power demand tends to be lower in the summer - at least, it is today, which is what this simulation is based on. Denmark consumes about 20-25% less power in June, compared to January (respectively 3.7GW and 4.7GW on average) ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di

In keeping with the optimistic tone about the growth of renewable energy in the US, Canary Media posted this headline recently: Almost all new U.S. grid capacity in 2024 will be carbon-free The good news is that renewable power generation makes economic sense, as well as being a good thing for the planet. Things are inching in the right direction. https://lnkd.in/gN9Uycgp #renewableenergy

Weekly power simulation, week 25 of 2024 For many weeks now, renewable electricity has been abundant in the daytime, thanks to 24GW solar PV in our simulation. However, night time can present the occasional challenge, if there's a wind lull. Most times, the model's 36GWh battery storage kicks in and is enough to fill the gap. However this Thursday night, batteries wasn't enough. Fortunately, however, the simulated Danish power grid was still able to maintain 100% renewable energy share last week, by activating 16.3 GWh's worth of demand side flexibility, namely EV charging, heat pumps and data centers. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation. The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di