Weekly power simulation, week 16 of 2024 Yet another week with solar and wind powering future-Denmark 100% of the time. Last week saw sunny spring weather here in Denmark, with most trees now budding out, and Danes enjoying the nice (albeit still not too warm) outside. The energy system was dominated by daily solar spikes upwards of 15GW, on top of a relatively consistent 'base layer' of onshore and offshore wind. In total, 2.7 TWh renewable electricity fed into the grid, of which roughly half to cover regular demand, a third available for PtX - and 0.4TWh exported or curtailed. ----- Each week, I run a simulation using real-world generation data from the Danish power grid, with #windenergy and #solarenergy scaled to match future (2033) capacities, as forecasted by the Danish Energy Agency. See earlier posts by searching for #WeeklyPowerSimulation The original idea for such a simplified, but very illustrative, simulation is David Osmond's from Australian Windlab. His version is found on twitter here: https://t.co/5Y3UiKB5Di
Ulf Westberg
10mo
Why this enormous overproduction? Nuclear power (like three Westinghouse AP1200 sold to Poland) and possibly a small battery will solve the problem - this set-up is bound to kill the prices which is good for the consumers (usually, except at Dunkelflaute), but who will do (and pay) for the investment?
Master's Student at DTU Engineering Physics | Focus on Nuclear Engineering | Analyst at 92 Ventures | IDA Nuclear Board Member | Volunteer at Foreningen Atomkraft Ja Tak | Comercial Songwriting
10moI still am very confused as to how those storage companies are gonna make money. That's not a lot of business in a week. Do they make money from replacing thermal generators in doing grid stability? According to ENTSOE data, today there's not a single hour in the year with no thermal generation, and I believe the plan at this point is just to keep biomass plants indefinitely. Should that be added to your graph? If we still assume thermal power plants will provide emergency backup then I believe they will have to be running low power the rest of the time (correct me if that's wrong). Also, it'd be very nice if you added a weekly curtailment/export percentage for these simulations. From eyeballing it, it looks like about 20% of this week's production is gonna be exported or curtailed (everything above the dashed line). And we're probably not gonna be able to export 10 GW on windy days (15 GW on 16th of April) when it's also windy in neighboring countries on those days. Again, if thermal generators run low power year round, this will increase curtailment/export share over the year.