Mathieu Primeau’s Post

On Friday Canada released an #Arctic Foreign Policy. Its strongest feature is the clear-eyed assessment of how the Arctic is changing and the threats and challenges from #Russia and #China and their growing partnership. Meanwhile, melting ice is unlocking new commercial opportunities and challenges, demanding that #Canada step up its economic, security, and environmental stewardship. The language of a “North American Arctic” underscores that Canada cannot tackle these challenges alone, and must deepen its collaboration with the #UnitedStates. Likewise, its recognition of a North Pacific dimension acknowledges the importance of #Japan and #SouthKorea, key Indo-Pacific partners whose interests converge with ours in ensuring a stable Arctic region. The document also highlights the role of Indigenous and First Nations communities, whose knowledge, stewardship, and leadership are vital in charting the Arctic’s future. The new policy is a good start—informed by consultation with stakeholders at home and abroad—but one not backed by sufficient resources and whose durability is uncertain should political winds shift. #Arctic #IndoPacific #Resources #Leadership https://lnkd.in/g8ssrw6U

Canada Chinese Arctic Threat: Find Cooperate China is perceived as a ‘pacing’ threat. https://lnkd.in/gtrqANSA Jonathan Berkshire Miller, MLI Director of foreign policy, national defence, and national security points out. https://lnkd.in/gbsTxRhe Clearly China is on the side of Moscow and this threatens the peace and security of Trans-Atlantic Arctic Pacific community, with Canada being a founding nation of NATO. “Canada doesn’t have a serious foreign strategic policy document that outlines these threats. We have not outlined why these countries [China] pose a challenge to us.” Canadian Arctic Foreign Policy - first chapter ‘Strategic Challenges in the Arctic‘ section 5. Find COOPERATE in the Policy: https://lnkd.in/ggFVxUsZ 5. Increasing challenges to Arctic states’ primacy Canada’s approach to the Arctic is guided by the fundamental principle that the Arctic should be governed by the Arctic states in collaboration with Arctic and northern Indigenous Peoples. As in other regions, strategic competition in the Arctic is growing, with non-Arctic states and actors increasingly expressing foreign policy or security aspirations, thereby pushing for greater roles in Arctic affairs. Since 2019, there has been a growing narrative among some non-Arctic states that they should have a greater say in Arctic governance. China, in particular, has expressed an ambition to become a “polar great power,” by 2030. Among China’s priorities in the Arctic are developing commercial shipping opportunities, including a “Polar Silk Road,” as well as natural resource exploitation, including of critical minerals, oil and gas and fish. China is also active in Arctic research, much of which can be considered dual use. China seeks to shape the international order into a more permissive environment for interests and values that increasingly deviate from Canada’s commitment to a rules-based international system. China can be expected to use all the tools at its disposal to advance its geopolitical interests, including in the Arctic. Canada will challenge China when it ought to and cooperate when its interests align with China’s. China, like all states, has rights and responsibilities related to its use of the world’s oceans that apply equally in the Arctic. For example, in accordance with UNCLOS, China can only conduct marine scientific research in the exclusive economic zone of another state with the consent of that state. Canada will carefully review any such requests related to its own exclusive economic zone and provide or withhold consent consistent with the provisions of the convention. Consistent with its Indo-Pacific Strategy and in collaboration with partners, Canada will always act on matters of Arctic governance to protect national and northern interests, including when dealing with China. Canada will cooperate with China to address pressing global issues—such as climate change—that have impacts on the Arctic.

Congrats Didi Kirsten Tatlow Again! "China is an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs. It has always participated in Arctic affairs based on the basic principles of 'respect, cooperation, win-win and sustainability,' strengthened cooperation with all parties, and is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Arctic and promoting sustainable development in the Arctic," Mao said at a regular press briefing in Beijing. "The United States distorts China's Arctic policy and makes irresponsible remarks on China's normal Arctic activities in accordance with international law, which is not conducive to peace, stability and cooperation in the Arctic. China is firmly opposed to this," she said. A recent investigation by Newsweek showed that China is increasingly making gains in Arctic science, sometimes via organizations that do not show their true military affiliation. #ccp #china #prc #arctic #research #defense #competition #science #cooperation #affairs #beijing #dod #hicks #whitehouse #pentagon #intelligence #counterintelligence #security

Canada’s participation in a trilateral icebreaker project with the United States and Finland marks a historic turning point in Canadian foreign and defense policy. For decades, Ottawa has paid lip service to the Arctic while failing to back its rhetoric with substantial investments or a coherent strategy. Now, with this icebreaker collaboration, Canada seems to be shedding its complacency and embracing its identity as an Arctic power—a shift that could redefine the country’s geopolitical role in the 21st century. This deal isn’t just about building icebreakers; it’s a signal that Canada is finally taking its Arctic responsibilities seriously. However, to fulfill its promise, this initiative must be framed within the broader context of Canada’s recently announced Arctic Foreign Policy. This new policy, along with the invocation of “Our North Strong and Free,” emphasizes security, Indigenous rights, and sustainable development as twin pillars of Canada’s Arctic strategy. Together, these initiatives provide the policy backdrop to the icebreaker deal and other concrete efforts to reorient Canada’s strategic focus to the high North. Whether Canada can follow through remains an open question, but the stakes are too high for failure.

Prof Abbie Tingstad hits the nail on the head, or maybe I should say she reveals the tip of the iceberg, in this recent article on the importance of collaborative efforts of the #USA, Canada, and Finland around #Arctic technology. The ICE Pact, signed on July 11, emphasizes mutual support in developing and maintaining icebreaker #shipbuilding capabilities among the 3 allied nations. The U.S. Coast Guard needs to acquire 8-9 polar icebreakers, including heavy and medium polar icebreakers, which underlines the importance of this strategic collaboration. The expertise shared by Canada and Finland is anticipated to benefit the construction of medium polar icebreakers greatly. This partnership could pave the way for the United States to build similar vessels for its partner nations. The Arctic is estimated to contain #economics resources of energy and minerals but also, and maybe more importantly, the NSR (Northern Sea Route), the “Arctic Golden Waterway," which could save as much as 7,000km compared to the Panama Canal route and 25% or more in fuel costs and time (plus security risks) for the Suez Canal. #China 🇨🇳, which has no Arctic borders, is increasingly making moves in the region both with and without the support of #Russia as the nation depends on exports for up to 20%+ of its GDP and imports 60%+ of its #oil. -GSP- #Security #Diplomacy #Collaboration

Canada has unveiled a comprehensive Arctic Foreign Policy in response to evolving geopolitical dynamics, particularly heightened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This policy underscores Canada’s commitment to asserting sovereignty, enhancing military presence, and strengthening collaboration with the United States and Nordic allies. Key elements of the policy include addressing climate change challenges, safeguarding Arctic resources, and promoting Indigenous perspectives in decision-making. Initiatives such as appointing an Arctic ambassador, opening consulates in Alaska and Greenland, and advancing boundary negotiations with the U.S. reflect a strategic approach to Arctic diplomacy. The ICE Pact, announced in July 2024, represents a landmark trilateral partnership between Canada, the United States, and Finland. Its mission is to advance Arctic and polar capabilities by fostering technological collaboration and developing state-of-the-art icebreakers. By leveraging shared expertise, the ICE Pact enhances the ability of like-minded nations to uphold international norms, ensure safety, and promote peace in the Arctic region. Spearheaded by innovative companies like Davie Shipbuilding, this initiative underscores the commitment of participating nations to sustainable and secure Arctic operations. Canada’s Arctic policy must deliver tangible outcomes that enhance national prosperity, secure sovereignty, and deepen industrial collaboration with allies like the U.S. and Finland. This bold framework reaffirms Canada’s role in maintaining a secure, stable, and prosperous Arctic region for future generations. ABOUT THE SAMUEL GROUP The Samuel Group provides companies and organizations with seamless strategic advisory support and enterprise-level government relations services in the United States, Canada and internationally. Contact us today for more information info@samuelgroup.us #ArcticPolicy #ICEPact #Geopolitics #Collaboration #Innovation Samuel Group D.C. Samuel Associates Samuel Strategies Samuel Group of Companies References: https://lnkd.in/erauytuB ICE PACT: https://lnkd.in/ezQwFCAz DAVIE: https://lnkd.in/e8RxbEhd

I echo all statements included in this press release, especially from Premier PJ Akeeagok. Asserting Arctic sovereignty and building a prosperous future for Northerners will take investing in critical and much needed infrastructure, such as the #KivalliqHydroFibreLink and other nation building projects. “Nunavut welcomes Canada’s new Arctic-specific foreign policy and looks forward to partnering with the federal government to advance our country’s efforts regarding Arctic sovereignty and security. Our territory’s history and geography uniquely position Nunavut to play a strategic role in Team Canada’s diplomatic endeavours. We look forward to advancing the objectives of this policy through investments in transformative nation-building infrastructure that meet local community needs, forge opportunities for economic development and address reconciliation, and our country’s geopolitical interests in Arctic sovereignty and security.” - P.J. Akeeagok, Premier of Nunavut #ArcticForeignPolicy #AFP #Nunavut ##ClimateAction #infrastructure #Arctic #security #sovereignty Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency/ Agence canadienne de développement économique du Nord https://lnkd.in/eHfD9ryd

"Since the 2000s, the EU’s #Arctic policy has developed, including towards Russia, along several vectors. Some of these centre around the #security implications of #climatechange; other vectors focus on how the #EU could gain legitimacy and influence in regional fora; the EU has also been highlighting its rights and responsibilities in the region, while seeking access to #Arcticresources and #searoutes to East Asia. For achieving to those targets, the EU almost always had difficulties with more established Arctic states, particularly with Russia and after February of 2022 the relations between two were frozen." #ArcticAwareness https://lnkd.in/dHYFnfTu

ARCTIC DEFENSE - The New U.S. Arctic Strategy Is Wrong to Focus on China - It emphasizes limited Chinese activities instead of the much more potent Russian threat. - Beijing’s ability to use bilateral channels to enhance its influence is also limited because four of the five are strong democracies and NATO members—and that number increases to seven out of eight if the entire Arctic Council (made up the five littoral states plus Finland, Iceland, and Sweden) is included. It is difficult to see any Arctic nation beyond Russia being keen on enabling China to gain a strong foothold in the region. - Indeed, evidence suggests that the Arctic democracies have all become increasingly aware and wary of Chinese overtures. For instance, when rumors surfaced in September that local Norwegian authorities welcomed Chinese investors in the Arctic port of Kirkenes, Norwegian Minister of Justice and Public Security Enger Mehl quickly clarified that Oslo will not allow such an investment if it runs counter to national security interests. Similarly, China has failed to entice Iceland and Greenland—both of which are often seen as particularly vulnerable to the lure of large Chinese investments. - In fact, most of China’s attempts at investing in Arctic resources outside Russia have been put on hold or have failed altogether. Even in the Russian Arctic, China’s economic footprint is relatively limited beyond its engagement in the Yamal liquefied natural gas project. Moreover, China’s ambition for a so-called Polar Silk Road through the Arctic Ocean has yet to result in any substantial shipment of goods through Arctic waters. - the United States 'potentially' runs the risk of overemphasizing China and the Pacific-adjacent part of the Arctic to the detriment of much more pressing security issues relating to Russia and the European Arctic. -https://lnkd.in/e3zuxKTW

A New Era of Arctic Geopolitics Russia-PRC Strategic Alignment Is Driving Unprecedented Regional Collaboration JULY 18, 2024 Heather A. Conley Sophie Arts Bonnie S. Glaser Kristine Berzina Jaine Archambeau Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, have also found common ground in weakening the United States and its leadership of the international system. Putin’s visit, with a large government delegation, to the PRC on May 16-17, 2024, the first after his most recent inauguration, suggests that he is positioning his country for an even deeper, long-term partnership with Beijing. The Arctic plays an important role in this evolving partnership. Moscow has looked to Beijing to develop the Northen Sea Route (NSR), invest in its Arctic energy projects and related support infrastructure (e.g., space and science), and enhance military cooperation. In return, Moscow has become Beijing’s conduit for greater activity in the Arctic, as the other seven Arctic Council and NATO members have become wary of the PRC’s strategic ambitions, coercive economic tactics, and focus on dual-use infrastructure investments. As the analysis in this paper will show, Russia-PRC cooperation in the region supports commercial and military ends. This is the last and concluding brief in a series of four papers assessing Moscow’s and Beijing’s growing alignment in the Arctic. Previous briefs assessed their cooperation in space, especially in the realm of satellite navigation supporting Arctic operations, their scientific collaboration and exploration, including research supporting undersea technologies, and their deepening civil-military collaboration, including efforts to pursue joint maritime law enforcement on the NSR. This paper summarizes their evolving Arctic collaboration in the context of a deepening strategic partnership and relies on open-source government documents, policy analysis, and anonymized interviews with leading experts and officials from North America and Northern Europe.