Mercury Global’s Post

What to expect for the pound next week?: # The pound sterling can only rely on the US news background. The GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways for a long time, so it will require a very strong news background for the market to break out of this "mess." America will provide all the necessary data to increase market activity, but the strength of this data will determine whether we will see the long-awaited wave 3 or just sideways movement. Data on business activity indexes in the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors will be released in the UK. We don't expect such reports to wake the market from its slumber. Especially since these will not be the initial estimates of the March indexes, but the final ones, which rarely surprise market participants. I believe that the British news background will have no impact on the movement of the GBP/USD pair. We will discuss the American news feed in the corresponding review. In my opinion, what's extremely important for the pound right now is not just the news background, but rather the market sentiment. Over the past four months, there have been at least two Bank of England meetings, two Federal Reserve meetings, four sets of Nonfarm Payrolls reports, GDP, unemployment, and inflation data. As we can see, all these data points haven't ended the pair's sideways movement. The fifth set of reports also have a small chance of breaking the pound out of its horizontal movement. I also want to remind you that over the past four months, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut has significantly decreased. It's already clear that there won't be any monetary easing in March because the meeting has already taken place. Now the market is betting on June, but even the current level of US inflation puts this date in serious doubt. Consequently, the timing of the first Fed rate cut keeps getting pushed further out, and the number of expected rounds of cuts decreases. This whole process is referred to as the Fed maintaining its hawkish stance instead of being dovish and this should increase the demand for the dollar. This pattern works in the EUR/USD instrument, but not in the GBP/USD instrument. Therefore, regardless of the news background, it's crucial for the pound that the market stops ignoring the obvious factors. Wave analysis for EUR/USD: Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci. Wave analysis for GBP/USD: The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c will start sooner…

#What to expect for the pound next week? https://ift.tt/ARizZQF ## The pound sterling can only rely on the US news background. The GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways for a long time, so it will require a very strong news background for the market to break out of this "mess." America will provide all the necessary data to increase market activity, but the strength of this data will determine whether we will see the long-awaited wave 3 or just sideways movement. Data on business activity indexes in the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors will be released in the UK. We don't expect such reports to wake the market from its slumber. Especially since these will not be the initial estimates of the March indexes, but the final ones, which rarely surprise market participants. I believe that the British news background will have no impact on the movement of the GBP/USD pair. We will discuss the American news feed in the corresponding review. In my opinion, what's extremely important for the pound right now is not just the news background, but rather the market sentiment. Over the past four months, there have been at least two Bank of England meetings, two Federal Reserve meetings, four sets of Nonfarm Payrolls reports, GDP, unemployment, and inflation data. As we can see, all these data points haven't ended the pair's sideways movement. The fifth set of reports also have a small chance of breaking the pound out of its horizontal movement. I also want to remind you that over the past four months, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut has significantly decreased. It's already clear that there won't be any monetary easing in March because the meeting has already taken place. Now the market is betting on June, but even the current level of US inflation puts this date in serious doubt. Consequently, the timing of the first Fed rate cut keeps getting pushed further out, and the number of expected rounds of cuts decreases. This whole process is referred to as the Fed maintaining its hawkish stance instead of being dovish and this should increase the demand for the dollar. This pattern works in the EUR/USD instrument, but not in the GBP/USD instrument. Therefore, regardless of the news background, it's crucial for the pound that the market stops ignoring the obvious factors. Wave analysis for EUR/USD: Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci. Wave analysis for GBP/USD: The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c will start sooner or later. However, unless we can confirm ...

#What to expect for the pound next week? https://ift.tt/2WSDBrP # The pound sterling can only rely on the US news background. The GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways for a long time, so it will require a very strong news background for the market to break out of this "mess." America will provide all the necessary data to increase market activity, but the strength of this data will determine whether we will see the long-awaited wave 3 or just sideways movement. Data on business activity indexes in the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors will be released in the UK. We don't expect such reports to wake the market from its slumber. Especially since these will not be the initial estimates of the March indexes, but the final ones, which rarely surprise market participants. I believe that the British news background will have no impact on the movement of the GBP/USD pair. We will discuss the American news feed in the corresponding review. In my opinion, what's extremely important for the pound right now is not just the news background, but rather the market sentiment. Over the past four months, there have been at least two Bank of England meetings, two Federal Reserve meetings, four sets of Nonfarm Payrolls reports, GDP, unemployment, and inflation data. As we can see, all these data points haven't ended the pair's sideways movement. The fifth set of reports also have a small chance of breaking the pound out of its horizontal movement. I also want to remind you that over the past four months, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut has significantly decreased. It's already clear that there won't be any monetary easing in March because the meeting has already taken place. Now the market is betting on June, but even the current level of US inflation puts this date in serious doubt. Consequently, the timing of the first Fed rate cut keeps getting pushed further out, and the number of expected rounds of cuts decreases. This whole process is referred to as the Fed maintaining its hawkish stance instead of being dovish and this should increase the demand for the dollar. This pattern works in the EUR/USD instrument, but not in the GBP/USD instrument. Therefore, regardless of the news background, it's crucial for the pound that the market stops ignoring the obvious factors. Wave analysis for EUR/USD: Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci. Wave analysis for GBP/USD: The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c will start sooner or later. However, unless we can confirm t...

𝐏𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐛𝐲 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐞 Throughout the week, the British Pound (GBP) traded in a choppy fashion and struggled to extend gains seen in the previous couple of weeks against the US Dollar (USD), prompting GBP/USD to recoup ground lost in the first half of the week and flirt with the key 200-day SMA around 1.2540 on Friday. Simultaneously, the price action around the Pound Sterling came in tandem with equally vacillating developments in the Greenback, as investors continued to digest the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish stance during its May 1 meeting and subsequent comments from Fed rate setters, who maintained their prudent stance when it came to prospects for interest rate cuts. Undoubtedly, the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting was the salient event of the week. On the latter, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to maintain rates unchanged by a vote of 7-2 on Thursday. Furthermore, the BoE adjusted its inflation projections and emphasized that future rate determinations will hinge on incoming data. Additionally, Governor Bailey expressed a preference for lowering the bank's rates in the upcoming quarters and underscored recent advancements in inflation. In the wake of the gathering, the BoE's Chief Economist, Huw Pill, noted that MPC members were growing more assured regarding the likelihood of imminent interest rate reductions, although they deemed further evidence necessary to substantiate their decision. So far, market participants now seem to have started to price in the start of the BoE’s easing cycle in August, although a move in June should not be ruled out just yet. Additionally, Friday’s auspicious results from the UK docket underpinned the mood around the quid, after GDP readings, Balance of Trade prints and Industrial and Manufacturing Production all surprised to the upside. Source: FXStreet Follow us for more news about British Pounds! Visit my FB Page: https://lnkd.in/e6eAYEAG . . . #pound #gbp #dollar #gdp #news #ukgdp #ukgbp #unitedkingdom #fxstreet #fxboutique #jpy #usd #euro #BOE

GBPUSD dropped more than 40 pips in the last 1 hr following the dovish comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. As of this writing, the currency pair trades near 1.2510. Pill said it was "not unreasonable" to think the BoE could consider rate cuts over the summer. At the same time, the UK employment figures came mixed. UK's unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in March, slightly up from 4.2%. Moving ahead, for today the most important thing in the forex market is undoubtedly the release of the April US PPI numbers and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech. #gbpusd #gbp #uk #boe #forex #forexnews #forexanalysis #tradingtips #inflation #interestrates #bankofengland

Sterling slides half a percent as a 'finely balanced' BoE decision boosts chances for an August cut. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/gMvmMWNa #fx #stocks #fxmarkets #markets #economy #forex #currency #recovery #recession #federalreserve #biden #dollar #euro #inflation #dollar #spending #eu #sterling #pound #budget #currency #currencies #BoE #inflation #gdp #USD #ukeconomy #banking #ECB #Fed #cpi #debtceiling #ratehikes #fomc #fca   Image Source: Reuters

– Focus on GBPUSD today - 30th May 2024 🇬🇧 Political Shifts: The British Parliament is dissolved following the PM's surprise announcement of early general elections in July. This has sparked short-term selling sentiment for the pound due to anticipated rate cuts. 📋 Economic Outlook: Despite high interest rates in the UK, which are attractive for carry trades, inflation is cooling slower than expected. Traders now expect the first rate cut in November. 🔍 Technical Analysis Highlights: • Stochastic Oscillator: Signals a short in the overbought area on the daily chart, indicating a strong downward tendency. On the 4-hour chart, it indicates oversold conditions, with bears holding the upper hand. • Price Action & Moving Averages: A dusk star pattern has formed on the daily chart, suggesting a likely fall in the exchange rate. On the 4-hour chart, the price is close to the 65-period moving average. A rebound is likely if the neckline (1.27621) isn't breached, targeting 1.26551. 📍 Pivot Indicator: • Central Price: 1.2723 • Bullish Scenario: Above 1.2723, targets are 1.2747 and 1.2761. • Bearish Outlook: Below 1.2723, targets are 1.2673 and 1.2658. Stay informed with Ultima Markets for the latest market insights! Trade with Ultima Markets now: https://cutt.ly/eet3MouZ Trading involves significant risk, losses may exceed your deposits. #UltimaMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #GBPUSD #BritishElections #GeneralElections #Trading

28th of October 2024 - What's going on today in the world of FX? ⚡ GBP: Sterling closed out the week with a fourth consecutive weekly loss against the dollar while remaining relatively stable against the euro. The pound was pressured by comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who noted that disinflation is progressing faster than anticipated, reinforcing market expectations for a quicker pace of interest rate cuts. The primary market focus this week will be the UK government’s first budget announcement. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is anticipated to adhere to manifesto pledges, avoiding increases in income tax and national insurance. However, to raise up to £20 billion for public services, an increase in employer’s national insurance contributions is expected.   EUR: The euro followed a similar path to the pound last week, declining against a broadly stronger dollar and reaching a 2-month low. This drop was driven by growing market expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Despite this, policymakers have been sending mixed signals, with some urging caution and others supporting a quicker easing pace. This morning, Belgian Central Bank Governor Pierre Wunsch aligned with the cautious stance, stating that it was too early to discuss the ECB’s December rate decision and that there was no immediate need to hasten the easing of monetary policy.   USD: The dollar remains stable this morning after securing a fourth consecutive weekly gain against its peers. The greenback's recent strength is attributed to expectations of a more gradual pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty following Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets over the weekend. . The Central bank is now in their blackout period before their rate decision on 7th November , where the market is all but certain that they will cut interest rates by 0.25% .   Economic Calendar No major data releases As always, if you need a quotation for your FX transfers or any further assistance feel more than free to reach out on 02039536320 or alternatively click the blue link above to "Book an Appointment." 😃 #markets #FX #GBP #news #USD

#Overview of the GBP/USD Pair for December 4; The Fed Might Finish Off the Pound Sterling https://ift.tt/8i7FWQX ## On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair did not show dramatic movements, but the most notable point is that it hardly rises. We observed a slight correction after two months of decline in the British currency, but the entire drop doesn't even fit on the chart, while the correction is minimal. This suggests that the market has no intention of staying in a corrective phase for long. If the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop this week turns out strong, the pound could collapse again, as it remains overbought and unjustifiably expensive—just like the euro, a point we've been making since early 2024. An additional factor supporting the dollar could be the Federal Reserve. Recall that the market has priced in the entire or nearly the whole easing cycle over the past two years as U.S. inflation slowed. It must begin pricing in the Bank of England's monetary policy easing, which has barely started. This leaves us with the following: The pound sterling is overvalued, and the market has yet to factor in rate cuts in the UK. The Bank of England has not yet meaningfully started lowering rates. From our perspective, the pound will only continue to decline. Not only has the market already priced in the entire easing cycle, but it now appears that the Fed might lower rates far less aggressively than previously expected. The Fed is wary of Donald Trump, who is already promising to impose tariffs on any country he sees on the world map. This would likely result in retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., as no country will quietly endure such actions. Consequently, U.S. prices would also rise, triggering renewed inflation. The Fed would then have to either lower rates less aggressively or raise them again to combat high inflation. However, the market has already factored in the "Joe Biden scenario," where no new tariffs are introduced, and everything remains calm and stable. The longer this situation persists, the stronger the case for further dollar growth. The Bank of England, meanwhile, is only providing temporary support to the pound. It's worth remembering that the Bank's current indecision will eventually lead to aggressive easing. The BoE fears inflation for different reasons, and once it takes more active measures, the pound could start falling much faster. Alternatively, the BoE might adopt a prolonged rate-cutting approach, resulting in a slower but extended decline for the pound. The pound will continue moving south no matter how you look at it. The 16-year downward trend remains intact, and there are still no solid grounds to expect significant growth in the British currency. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 87 pips, considered "average" for the pair. On Wednesday, December 4, we expect movement within the range defined by 1.2607 and 1.2781. The higher linear regression channel is pointing downward,...

North American #FX Open - #Sterling continues to lose ground after dovish Ramsden opinions A weekend with no escalation in the #Israel/ #Iran conflict has seen a tentative return of positive risk sentiment, with the safe haven #Franc and #Yen registering minor losses. The Pound has been a major underperformer, with the UK unit still reeling from the the dovish talk on Friday afternoon by the normally quite hawkish Bank of England policy-maker Ramsden. Usd/Jpy has traded as high as 154.78, which is just a pip away from last week's multi-decade high. It seems that market participants are viewing the 155.00 level in the same way they did the 152.00 level, before the Apr 10 US CPI report. Asian equities have rebounded, while US stock futures point to more restrained gains later today. US 10 year yields have ticked up back above 4.65%. Over the weekend the BoJ Governor Ueda stated that the central #bank must maintain loose monetary policy for the time being as underlying inflation remains "somewhat below" its 2% target, and long-term inflation expectations are still near 1.5%. Ueda added that "irrespective of what the data will say in the near future, we will like to find a way and timing to reduce the amount of JGB purchases" and that "if underlying inflation continues to go up, we will very likely be raising interest rates." Also over the weekend the ECB's Villeroy stated that oil price uncertainty won't stop a June rate cut and that he expects the central bank to continue to ease policy at a "pragmatic" pace after a June move. A day earlier his colleague Muller declared that the ECB shouldn't loosen monetary policy too quickly and that more cuts after June could be reasonable this year. In the last hour, the ECB's Patsalides insisted that there is no set rate path and that they remain data dependent. Want to read more? Request a demo of our service here: https://lnkd.in/dtRG325Z