Middle East Institute’s Post

Transcript

Well, you know, Jim, coming on your show today, I knew that this interview wasn't going to win me many fans. I'm not optimistic. I'm very glad that we finally got into this agreement. We a lot of us know people in the region who have been suffering suffering through this conflict. But the deck is stacked against it. And I'll I'll talk briefly why very clearly here Iran is going to want to try and replenish Hezbollah now diminished stockpiles of missiles and and precision guided munitions. Hezbollah being on its back foot. This is part and. Parcel of a much broader conflict between Iran and Israel to reshape the balance of power in the in the region. And it would be very surprising to me if Iran does in fact step back from this. And then also just listening to the speech by the Israeli Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu, again underscoring that the his troops need to refresh, I believe was the word that he used and that this is part and parcel of the broader campaign against Iran and that he has succeeded in dividing the various fronts. Your unity of fronts having been a core strategy of Iran in this war, but that this war, this conflict continues with Iran and its various manifestations. So I really do think that we're have perhaps we're going to pause of some sorts and then this doesn't have to be a binary outcome. It's not war, no war. I I would predict that we're going to go to some kind of a low intensity conflict with new rules of engagement after this 60 day report. Part of the goal and Netanyahu referenced this is. That. It separates, at least for a time, the wars in Lebanon with Hezbollah from the war in Gaza with Hamas, which were intentionally joined right following the October 7th attacks. Hezbollah stepped up its attacks in northern Israel in in sort of solidarity with Gaza. Does this effectively and again four time separate those two that linkage? I think it does, and I think that's a major victory there for the Israeli Prime Minister. Again, the unity of fronts, as as the Iranians and their allies in the region have liked to term it, was a key component of what they tried to do from day one in support of Hamas. So be it the Houthis in Yemen, the various Iranian sponsored militias in Syria and Iraq, and then Hezbollah, the crown jewel of Iran and the first line of defense for the regime should it come under attack from Israel in Lebanon. And so Hezbollah now has been diminished. Enough demoralized enough, particularly the wealth to fight amongst the Lebanese population which really did not want to be dragged into this war from the 1st place, that I do not. I do not see that Hezbollah will in fact rejoin this fight on behalf of Hamas, but if there's an expansion of the war in a significant way to Iran, then all bets are off. There are some elements to this that just based on experience have failed at, One being that we will again see UN peacekeepers. Involved to some degree in in keeping the peace along along the border there. But then there are other questions as well. Because if if Netanyahu is saying that he wants to focus on the Iranian threat now, does that mean that we see another exchange of fire between Israel and Iran? I think that's very much possible. And you know, I, I've been talking to many analysts here who follow Iran very closely and I could tell you that there are many of them who see a window of opportunity. Iran's air defenses are down as a result of Iran's, sorry, Israel's last strike on Iran. Iran is very vulnerable right now. And then again, Hezbollah being the 1st and most formidable line of defense that proxy groups sitting right there on Israel's northern border to defend the regime should. I'm under attack. That is also down right now and on its back foot. So there are many who are looking around and saying, you know what, in the coming months, if Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu really wanted to take it to Iran's nuclear program, well, he's got an open window right now. And there's a good chance that he might act. Or at a very minimum, he's going to want to try and keep Hizbollah down, keep Iranian defenses down to extend that period of time in which he can act against its nuclear program. Of course, it's a role for diplomacy, but we'll have to see if there will be backroom. Diplomacy here when the Trump administration comes in, well, given that we will have a new president in in less than 60 days. What do you believe the Trump administration's reaction would be if Israel were were to push ahead and attempt to take out Iran's nuclear program? We know that the Biden administration quite explicitly pushed Israel back from attacking nuclear facilities in its most recent retaliatory strike. But we also know that Trump, as much as he backs Israel, does not want a war in the Middle East. So would he attempt to hold back Israel as well? And and would Netanyahu listen to him? Well, here's what we know about President Trump. President Trump has at least two camps under his his broad tent when it comes to foreign policy. There are isolationists and then there are Hawks, foreign policy Hawks who are very, very anti Iranian and very much would like to see Iran being dealt a blow. And President Trump and his style likes to listen to both these camps and then make the decision on his own. And so I really do think that we saw Elon Musk meet with the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations not too long ago. I really do think that. The Trump administration is gonna go at diplomacy with Iran. They're gonna give him an opportunity to come in to try and iron out some kind of new arrangement for a new, a much more diminished Iran in the region. But that failed. If that fails, I do think that the Hawks would get the upper hand and there would be an argument for for doing something or at least allowing the Israelis to do something. There are there are a lot of folks who believe they can negotiate better than the diplomats who've been attempting to negotiate some sort of agreement between Israel. Between Iran and the US through the years, of course, you did have the JCPOA during the Obama administration, which Trump then removed the US from. But now he's talking about his own agreement. Is Elon Musk the right emissary for that kind of negotiation? Yeah, hard hardly. So, I mean, I don't, I don't see any track record there of, of diplomacy at large, let alone diplomacy and a complex place like like the Middle East or with, with somebody like the Iranians who are of course renowned for being strategies and who, who plan for many, many years ahead. So I, I don't see that Elon Musk himself would be the right person. But there certainly could be an envoy, Brian Hook, for example, of somebody who might come back into the new Trump administration. He was the previous envoy for Iran with. The first Trump presidency. So there are capable figures. It is. You know, it's beyond me why Elon Musk was the person to meet with that Iranian ambassador. But then again, there are many things that happen in the Trump camp that we all don't understand. Well, there'll be four more years of surprises for us. Thanks so much for joining. Thank you still to come.