Millennium Group reposted this
📈 Bank Holiday 'Bear Market' House Price Graph I had a bit of fun this week analysing bear market periods in the E&W housing market, based on the Land Registry HPI, and the subsequent recovery. Since 1990 'bear markets' (periods where the England & Wales HPI sees sustained annual price growth <2%) have typically lasted around 13 months. The recent market slowdown was fairly typical, but is now overperforming on the exit than any other slowdown. ➡ Average 'bear run' duration since 1990: 13 months. ➡ May 2024 saw a return to 'normal' growth, exactly 13 months after the market first dipped below 2% in April 2023. ➡ Current recovery pace is the fastest compared to previous 5x bear markets. 🤔 Reinforces my view that the ONS//HMLR house price inflation rate will be >4% by December'24. 🔮 Given all the supply-side restrictions & latent demand in the market, we are increasingly likely to see a 'bull market' (periods where the England & Wales HPI sees sustained annual price growth >7%) in the coming 18 months.
