MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s Post

The general election may be seven months away, but thousands of #Hoosiers will begin making important civic decisions in April. Given #Indiana Republicans’ dominance of statewide executive offices, such as governor and lieutenant governor, and both houses of the Indiana General Assembly, this primary will be a key component in selecting the next wave of Hoosier leaders. The window for early primary voting opens next week. Here is what you need to know in order to participate ⬇️ #voting #vote #elections #2024election #politics

The momentum for election reform continues to build across the country! Yesterday, Colorado Voters First submitted 213,000 signatures to the Colorado Secretary of State for a ballot measure to bring #RankedChoiceVoting and all-party open primaries to the Centennial State. That’s nearly 90,000 more signatures than needed to qualify. And just this morning,  we learned that voters in our nation's capital will get to vote on adopting RCV on this November's ballot! Kudos to Make All Votes Count DC and Lisa D. T. Rice for leading this grassroots effort. These two parts of the country are quite different, but they have at least one thing in common: Their voters want more voice and more choice. More than 80% of Americans believe our democracy simply isn’t delivering the kind of governance we need. And every day, more and more citizens are discovering that RCV is part of the solution. https://lnkd.in/ePCXdSps

The election comes down to nine to 11 states. A presidential race is 50 separate state elections to accumulate 270 electoral votes. Most states are not swing states. Ga. Pa., Mich, Minn, Ariz., Wisc. and NH are in play most elections. The reason I think Pa. Gov. Josh Shapiro is leading to be the VP nominee is that in the three scenarios for the Democrats to win, Pennsylvania is number one in each. The Dems need Pa.'s 19 votes and it is a tossup. North Carolina is a Lucy and the Football state for Democrats. Obama won in 2008, and sometimes Democrats come very close, like Biden in 2020. But except for Obama, you have to go back to 1976, when Carter beat Ford. Right now, NC leans Republican, according to 270towin.com. Biden's replacement by Kamala Harris has tightened up the race in a week. and more important, started the money flowing again, $200 million in the last few days. Every time I go on Facebook, Harris is pitching me to send $10. Her ads are way more effective than the Biden ads were. They just reminded me how tired he looked. I met him 45 years ago at a political event in Southwest Virginia that I was covering as a kid reporter. He was a senator in his mid-30s, my kids' age now, a rising star with presidential ambitions that would take way longer than he thought to be realized. We've both gotten old. But I digress. Now it is all turnout. Early voting starts in September in some states and October in others. Look at folks you see during the day and try to guess if they are likely to vote. If you guess that it is unlikely, then try to think what would make them vote. People vote from habit, or civic obligation, or a stake in the outcome. If people feel none of those things you can still get them out, but it takes a neighbor dragging them out. Lincoln said find 'em and vote 'em. In a close race, this is where one side wins, because it has motivated field workers. A TV commercial cannot give a ride to the polls. In North Carolina, in-person early voting starts Oct. 17. Around 5 to 5.5 million people will probably cast ballots. There are 7.5 million registered voters now. Why 2 million registered voters won't vote, I don't know.

We have some contrarian insights to share on the upcoming 2024 election. According to our latest survey of voters, the turnout will be higher than the record high of 2020. Check out our blog for more details on our findings and what they mean for the election. One of the most surprising insights is that more Democrats and Independents than Republicans will skip the Presidential ballot. Read more about our survey at the link below. #2024election #insights

With the primary election day right around the corner, vote totals so far are anemic at best, according to the latest returns. But first, here's what you should know about the vote totals:

In general, the vast majority of American voters support the basic principle that candidates have an obligation to accept the results of elections, with 88% saying that losing candidates have an obligation to concede once the results are certified in every state and 12% saying they do not. But that rises to 20% among registered voters who support Trump, compared with only 3% who feel that way among Harris supporters. A 56% majority of registered voters say they have just some or no trust in the Supreme Court to make the right decisions on any legal cases relating to the 2024 election, little changed from January. There's a substantial political split, with Trump supporters roughly twice as likely as Harris supporters to express at least a moderate amount of trust in the court, 61% to 31%. Trust in the court lags among younger voters, with just 8% of voters younger than 35 saying they have a great deal of trust in the court to make decisions on the 2024 election, compared with 21% among voters ages 65 or older. Black voters (9% a great deal of trust), Democrats (4%) and liberal voters (5%) also express minimal trust in the court.

With ballots arriving in the mailboxes of California voters, the below provides a snapshot analysis of the open and competitive seats in the California Legislature for the 2024 general election.

Election day 2024 map: How all 159 Georgia counties voted compared to 2020 Link: https://lnkd.in/eD-TYBzS a closer look at how each county voted in this year’s presidential election, and how Georgia’s partisan margins are changing.

Your PSA from Wisconsin Bankers Association Thank you. Important Voter Registration Deadlines Approaching for Election October 16, 2024: Deadline to Register by Mail – Your voter registration form, along with proof of residence must be postmarked to your municipal clerk no later than October 16, 2024. October 16, 2024: Deadline to Register to Vote Online – Voters who are able to match their name, date of birth, Wisconsin Driver License or State ID number, and address with the Wisconsin DMV can register to vote online through October 16, 2024. November 1, 2024 @ 5:00 p.m.: Deadline to Register in Your Municipal Clerk’s Office – Voters may register in-person in their municipal clerk’s office during the clerk’s business hours until 5:00 p.m. on November 1, 2024. November 5, 2024 from 7:00 a.m.–8:00 p.m.: Register to Vote at Your Polling Place -– Voters can register to vote at their polling place on Election Day, November 5, 2024. All voters must provide a proof of residence document when registering to vote by mail, in-person in the clerk’s office, or at the polls on Election Day. All voters in Wisconsin can request an absentee ballot be mailed to them for any reason. Voters must be registered before they can request an absentee ballot. Voters may request their absentee ballot in writing. Request an absentee ballot at MyVote.wi.gov. You must provide a photo ID with your absentee ballot request.

With 30 days left until the election, have you registered to vote? Do you plan to vote? While you may feel like your vote “doesn’t matter,” it’s important to recognize that your voice may be more important in elections both national and local. In 2020, President Biden secured an electoral victory over incumbent Donald Trump by narrow margins: ~20,000 vote difference in Wisconsin, ~12,000 vote difference in Georgia, ~11,000 vote difference in Arizona, etc. While the electoral college may make your vote feel less impactful in the Presidential race, it’s significant to recognize that mobilizing yourself and a few unregistered voters in your network could make all the difference in these closer elections. When you vote, you're able to choose who represents you in Congress; in districts like NM-02 and PA-07, Dave Vasquez and Susan Wild won their Congressional election by margins as narrow as a few thousand voters. These representatives, who vote for or against the bills brought to the floor of Congress, should represent your community and your voice. By submitting your feedback on bills -- you, as one of their constituents -- can show support or opposition for the bills in Congress that address issues such as Social Security, climate change, and others frequently brought up in Congress. By using IssueVoter, you can track who your Congressional representative is and how they’ve been voting on bills brought to the floor with our IssueVoter Scorecard to give you a better idea of how you can use your vote -- all while sending your opinion on current bills to your representative! Check out our website (issuevoter.org) or app (https://buff.ly/4emiK6O) to learn more! #Politics #Election2024 #CivicEngagement #Voting