Nithin Thomas’ Post

The #RBA held rates for the sixth consecutive time at the August meeting this week, and according to Governor Michele Bullock, the decision was based on #inflation data, which is returning to target slower than expected. Harvey Bradley, #portfolio manager at Insight Investment, states that “we think this keeps the RBA in a holding pattern for the foreseeable future, likely at least six months leaving #rates unchanged." According to Harvey, they won’t want the market to perceive either a dovish or hawkish bias, at this point, reports Laura Dew in this Money Management Australia article. “This more balanced outlook in the near term is at odds with most other #centralbanks who continue to signal the next move in rates will be down. There has been a significant ‘risk-off’ move in global #markets leading up to this RBA meeting. Markets are now pricing in 50 bps cuts from #US and #European central banks in Q4", says Harvey. https://bit.ly/3yy9vRo

A more cautious Bank of England looking for further evidence of a sustainable fall in inflation makes it less likely to be an early mover on cuts, according to Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist & Strategist at Schroders. #Inflation #UKEconomy

INTEREST RATES?? Which way are they going 🤔 The Evening Standard report that As Bank of England policymakers prepare to vote on whether to cut interest rates, financial markets suggest that there is a 65% chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opts for a lower rate. With inflation falling to the Bank’s target rate of 2% in May and June, some economists think the MPC could reduce the base rate from 5.25% to 5%. 👉 James Smith, developed market economist at ING, believes it will be a “close call” but expects policymakers to vote for 0.25% rate cut, saying inflation “is the “guiding light” for Bank policy. 👉 Sanjay Raja, senior economist for Deutsche Bank, also predicts that rates will be cut to 5%, but says it will be a “delicate balance.” 👉 Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, says policymakers could opt to hold rates at 5.25% and use August’s meeting to “lay the groundwork” for a 0.25 percentage point reduction in September. 👉 Experts at Pantheon Macroeconomics also suggest that the MPC could keep rates on hold but “signal they expect to cut rates in the coming months.” What do you think 🤷♂️ #businessfinance #financebroker #assetfinance #supportingsmes

The BOE is getting ready to cut the base rate to around 3% by the end of 2025, according to some forecasts. The wider market is moving towards a predicted rate cut later this year. It's an opportunity for investors and businesses to reassess and prepare for the impact of these changes. More updates here: https://bit.ly/3TOqHZy How do you think these potential cuts will shape the economy? #BOE #Finance #StellarSelect #Economy

The Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to hold the official cash rate at 4.35%p.a., following their fifth monetary policy decision of 2024. According to the RBA, the process of returning inflation to target has been "slow and bumpy", with an overarching theme of uncertainty surrounding the economy. The Board remains determined to return inflation to the targeted 2-3 per cent, harmonious with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. Read more: https://loom.ly/rw4FasU #TrilogyFunds #RBA #inflation

So a 0.5% cut in the OCR in October and 0.25% in November? Economists warn there is a rising risk of deflation if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand doesn't cut interest rates fast enough. Weak pricing data in the NZ Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion just released highlights the risks. Actual data for the 3rd quarter showed a difficult third quarter and many are expecting another tough 3 months ahead. Stephen Toplis from Bank of New Zealand says the data is so weak that the RBNZ risked pushing inflation well below target. Both ANZ and NZIER are only picking a 0.25% OCR decrease this month however a lot of the market see a need for 0.5% this time. Usual questions- > What do you think the OCR should be decreased by this month and next month? > Do you feel we are at a risk of deflation and potentially a much longer recovery unless rates start coming back strongly by Christmas? #interestrates #deflation ##theeconomy

Market Snapshot: In the latest update from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the board has decided to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, which is currently at a 12-year high. This decision was made following the conclusion of the second two-day meeting of 2024 on Tuesday afternoon. It comes as no surprise to economists, as the result was widely anticipated. Despite keeping the cash rate steady, the RBA has indicated that it is open to the possibility of raising interest rates in the future if deemed necessary. This decision reflects the central bank's commitment to maintaining a balance between supporting economic growth and managing inflationary pressures. Overall, the market remains stable as investors continue to monitor the RBA's stance on monetary policy. The decision to keep the cash rate unchanged provides a sense of stability and predictability for businesses and consumers alike. It also signals the RBA's cautious approach to managing the economy in the face of evolving economic conditions. Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching for any signals from the RBA regarding future interest rate movements. Any indications of a potential rate hike could impact financial markets and investor sentiment. In the meantime, businesses and consumers are advised to stay informed and adapt their financial strategies accordingly. In conclusion, the RBA's decision to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% reflects a balanced approach to monetary policy in the current economic environment. While the central bank has left the door open for future rate adjustments, the overall market sentiment remains steady. Investors are encouraged to stay updated on the latest developments and adjust their investment decisions accordingly. #australia #uk #newzealand #usa #interestrate #dollar #sterling #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #challengercapital #willbanks #marketedge #internationalbusiness #europe

📉 Economists are closely watching the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) amid predictions that it may delay rate cuts until later this year. Despite mounting pressure, the RBA appears poised to maintain its current stance, with expectations now pointing towards November for the commencement of rate reductions. This cautious approach stems from several factors, including a resilient labor market, robust migration trends, surging house prices, and record-high stock market levels. These indicators suggest that the RBA’s previous string of rate hikes, totaling 13 since 2022, are still reverberating through the economy. While some economists remain optimistic about the prospect of rate cuts, particularly as early as May, others are adopting a more conservative outlook. Major financial institutions like HSBC and JPMorgan are among those forecasting that the RBA may hold off on monetary easing until 2025. This divergence in opinion underscores the complexity of the economic landscape and the challenges facing policymakers. Amidst this uncertainty, the RBA’s cautious rhetoric reflects a desire for flexibility in navigating future monetary policy decisions. By refraining from committing to a specific course of action, the central bank retains the ability to respond effectively to evolving economic conditions. However, the prevailing sentiment among analysts suggests that the likelihood of rate cuts outweighs the possibility of rate hikes in the near term. As the RBA continues to monitor key economic indicators, including inflation, employment figures, and fiscal policy developments, the timing and extent of future rate adjustments remain subject to ongoing assessment. In the meantime, market participants are advised to remain vigilant and adaptable in response to shifting macroeconomic dynamics. #RBAmoves #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook

RBA's future rate cuts economists predict three reductions by 2025 1) Interest Rate Cuts are Expected Economists anticipate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will initiate its first post-pandemic interest rate cut in February 2025. 2) Projected Rate Reduction The cash rate is expected to decrease to 3.6% by the end of 2025. 3) Current Rate Status The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, with no cuts anticipated before Christmas 2024. 4) Bond Market Expectations Analysts believe that the bond market's expectations for swift interest rate reductions, possibly starting in November 2024, are unlikely to materialize. 5) Governor's Statement RBA Governor Michele Bullock has explicitly ruled out a pre-Christmas rate cut, reinforcing the current rate hold. >>>> Follow us for more #propertyupdates, #investmenttips, #market data, and more! Contact us @ 02-81230180, info@successavenue.com.au | www.successavenue.com.au #SuccessAvenue #RBA #economists #interestratecut #australia (Australia, RBA, Property Market, Interest Rate Cuts, Property Market Prediction)

Insightful research produced by Leeds University Think Tank. Using Macrobond Financial data and analytics, these students were able to create professional-level research, allowing them to stand out among their peers. #studentresearch #Macrobond #macro #dataanalytics #policy