NKD Advisory LLC’s Post

IMPORT PRICE INDEX, February 2024 • Import Price Index increased 0.3% in February 2024 after a 0.8% gain in January • Import Prices Minus Fuel rose 0.2% • Cost of imported goods had fallen steadily and contributed to lower U.S. inflation --- that trend appears to unwinding. • Inflation reports published earlier this week on US wholesale and consumer prices rose in February more than predicted --- reigniting questions as to whether the FED will begin to cut interest rates. #importpriceindex

The Ministry of Consumer Affairs monitors stable domestic edible oil prices amid improving import stocks. Analysts predict current price ranges will persist for 2-3 months. This development coincides with cooling fuel prices and consumer inflation at 4.75% in May, down from 4.83% in April. The RBI maintains an inflation forecast of 4.5% annually, with projected retail inflation at 4.9% for April-June and varying between 3.8% and 4.6% for subsequent quarters. #MinistryOfConsumerAffairs #DomesticEdibleOilPrices #ImportStock #CurrentPriceRange #RBI #ConsumerInflation

To keep pace with inflation, for every $100 you used to purchase basic goods in January 2021 would require you to spend $120.61 today - as of November 2024, over 20% increase in inflation. From January 2017 to December of 2020, for every that $100 required spending $107.72, roughly 7% inflation. Bidens 4 years - CPI 20% inflation. Trumps 4 years - CPI 7% inflation. I didn't make this up. It's directly from the government's BLS website (https://www.bls.gov/). There is a handy CPI calculator on the website above. You can plug in dates to see how much a basic basket of goods costs based on years. In other words, how much more (or less) you would need to purchase eggs, etc.

  Interest rates began flat this morning after another session that dropped the 10 yr note another 8 bps yesterday to 4.24%. The note did slip in overnight activity to 4.20% the lowest level since the beginning of April. Inflation cooling in both May CPI and PPI, weekly jobless claims increased yesterday more than estimates. Markets also impressed with the vey strong 10 yr and 30 yr auctions, both saw very strong demand, especially from foreign banks and large foreign investors driven by turmoil in France, he called for a snap election after right winger Marine Le Pen’s win for the EU parliament.   At 8:30 more good news on May imports and export prices. Imports expected to be unchanged frm April’s +0.9% increase but declined 0.3% m/m, yr/yr thought to be +1.5% increased just 1.1%. Export prices forecast at 0.0% declined 0.6% and yr/yr +0.6% frm +1.0% in April. Import prices declined for the first time this year; prices for non-fuel imports fell by 0.3% amid lower costs for foods, feeds, and beverages (-1.3%), industrial supplies and materials (-0.4%), and consumer goods (-0.2%). Export prices the lowest since last Dec.   The G-7 meeting began yesterday in Italy continuing today and over the weekend. Based on thew schedule there isn’t anything in the meeting that will directly influence interest rate markets.   At 9:30 the DJIA opened -176, NASDAQ -58, S&P -20. 10 yr at 9:30 4.23% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 yr coupon at 9:30 -2 bps frm yesterday’s close and -6 bps frm 9:30 yesterday.   At 10:00 am a few minutes ago the U. of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index, the index was expected to have increased to 73.0 frm 69.1 at the end of May, yr ahead inflation at 3.2% down frm 3.3%. The sentiment index dropped to 65.6. The declines in the survey add support to the interest rate outlook as consumers turn more cautious. 

Shipping costs for imported goods could spike due to under-capacity, a Panama Canal drought, the Red Sea conflict causing longer routes, and bad weather in East Asia. All of this could impact inflation, which was the topic of the day yesterday causing markets to be very volatile. Extreme shipping costs could be a factor in encouraging goods made locally: The goods made locally may be more expensive to make, but that could be offset by the volatile costs of shipping long distances. (CNBC) # CPI # Inflation

3️⃣ US CPI rose 2.5% YoY in August. On September 11, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that in August, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% year-on-year, continuing to decline for the fifth consecutive month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 2.9%. In August, the CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with market expectations and the previous value. The US core CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in August, as estimated at 3.2%, and the previous value was 3.2%. It rose 0.3% month-on-month, as estimated at 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.2%. #US #UnitedStates #America #CPI #market #August 2️⃣ France's GDP is expected to grow 0.4% QoQ in the third quarter. Recently, the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Research said that France's GDP is expected to grow 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter and -0.1% in the fourth quarter. France's inflation rate is expected to be below 2% for the rest of 2024 and reach 1.6% in December. #France #GDP #French #inflationRate #December 1️⃣ Uzbekistan's exports increased by 5.5% YoY in 2024 H1. Recently, the Uzbekistan State Statistics Agency released Uzbekistan's foreign trade report for the first half of the year. In the first half of 2024, Uzbekistan's total foreign trade volume reached 31.8 billion US dollars, of which exports were 13 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year, imports were 18.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, and the trade deficit was 5.8 billion US dollars. #Uzbekistan #export #trade #report #ForeignTrade #import #tradeDeficit #tradeVolume

Continuous fall in Chinese market recalls 2015, #billet prices hit unexpected low Though prices in the Chinese billet market have been dropping since late last week, this week the pace of the fall has accelerated, and today, August 14, local and export billet prices have again hit the lowest levels seen in a number of years, recalling the peak export year of 2015. Weak credit data and a three percent drop in futures prices have contributed to this situation. “At present, #rebar has touched a seven-year bottom and #HRC is at a four-year low. Local prices are in chaos and most mills changed daily base prices two or three times by RMB 40-60/mt,” one more Chinese source said... Full story: https://lnkd.in/dwsxGf6z

Continuous fall in Chinese market recalls 2015, #billet prices hit unexpected low Though prices in the Chinese billet market have been dropping since late last week, this week the pace of the fall has accelerated, and today, August 14, local and export billet prices have again hit the lowest levels seen in a number of years, recalling the peak export year of 2015. Weak credit data and a three percent drop in futures prices have contributed to this situation. “At present, #rebar has touched a seven-year bottom and #HRC is at a four-year low. Local prices are in chaos and most mills changed daily base prices two or three times by RMB 40-60/mt,” one more Chinese source said... Full story: https://lnkd.in/ddD7pVeE

#NZD - New Zealand Trade Balance Actual 588M (Forecast -, Previous -218.0M) - New Zealand Imports dipped from previous $6.11B to $5.91B in March #AUD -Australian CPI YoY Actual 3.6% (Forecast 3.5%, Previous 4.1%) - RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ Actual 1.1% (Forecast 0.9%, Previous 0.9%) - Australian CPI QoQ Actual 1% (Forecast 0.8%, Previous 0.6%) - Australia CPI rises 3.5% year on year in March: ABS - Australia G1 RBA Weighted Median CPI up 1.1% quarter on quarter according to source poll - Australia G1 RBA Weighted Median CPI up 4.4% year on year, exceeding poll expectations by 0.3%