Norman K.’s Post

Harris vs Trump - Here's where we are at going into the final weekend before the vote on Tuesday. _____ solid lines show forecasts from "points / play money" prediction markets (Hypermind) and prediction polls (Metaculus, Good Judgment). .......... dotted lines show forecast from opinion poll aggregators (The Economist, 538) ------ dashed lines show forecasts from "real money / crypto" prediction markets (Manifold, PredictIt, Betfair, Polymarket, Kalshi). The bottom chart shows how the average forecast evolved in each category. ==> Hypermind is still only model slightly favoring Harris. ==> All the other models have Harris trending back up over the last few days.

In this quarter’s newsletter, we consider parallels between today’s market and the dot-com bubble. While artificial intelligence, liquidity, and government stimulus fuel optimism, valuation suggests that it may not be sustainable. https://ow.ly/gcp850R8LJX #equitymarkets

In this quarter’s newsletter, we consider parallels between today’s market and the dot-com bubble. While artificial intelligence, liquidity, and government stimulus fuel optimism, valuation suggests that it may not be sustainable. https://ow.ly/S7KM30sBkZI #equitymarkets

In this paper, Thomas Drechsel provides a novel quantitative evidence on the macroeconomic consequences of political pressure on monetary policy, using data spanning nearly a century of U.S. history.  #politics #centralbanks

The "central bank of central banks" just released its annual report, and it is a goldmine for economic insights. Here are the key takeaways from the annual BIS report that every investor should know: - AI Revolution in Finance 🤖: AI is reshaping the financial industry faster than any previous tech wave. It's not just hype - 70% of financial firms are already using AI for cash flow predictions, credit scoring, and fraud detection. This could revolutionize how we assess risk and make investment decisions. - Data is the New Gold 💾: The BIS emphasizes the critical role of data in the AI era. For central banks and investors alike, access to high-quality, timely data will be crucial for decision-making and risk assessment. - Monetary Policy Challenges 🎯: Central banks face a delicate balancing act. They've made progress on inflation, but the job isn't done. The BIS warns against premature easing and emphasizes the importance of retaining policy space for future challenges. - Financial Stability Risks 🌊: While the financial system has shown resilience, vulnerabilities persist. Commercial real estate and private credit markets are areas to watch. The report highlights the need for strengthened macroprudential policies to mitigate risks. - Productivity Boost? 📈: AI could significantly enhance productivity growth, potentially expanding the economy's productive capacity. However, its impact on labor markets and inequality remains uncertain. This could have profound implications for long-term economic growth and investment strategies. The BIS report underscores the transformative potential of AI in finance, while reminding us of the ongoing challenges in monetary policy and financial stability. As investors, staying informed about these trends is crucial for navigating the evolving economic landscape. BIS Annual Report: https://lnkd.in/gFbFJ_BH Image Sources: Allcot (2023); Comin and Hobijn (2004); Maslej et al (2024); McKinsey & Company (2023); IMF, World Economic Outlook; US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey; International Telecommunication Union (ITU); PitchBook Data Inc; Our World in Data; Statista, Digital Market Insights; BIS. #ArtificialIntelligence #Macroeconomics #Investing #AI #Finance

In this quarter’s newsletter, we consider parallels between today’s market and the dot-com bubble. While artificial intelligence, liquidity, and government stimulus fuel optimism, valuation suggests that it may not be sustainable. https://ow.ly/cUtm30sBs0z #equitymarkets

In this quarter’s newsletter, we consider parallels between today’s market and the dot-com bubble. While artificial intelligence, liquidity, and government stimulus fuel optimism, valuation suggests that it may not be sustainable. https://ow.ly/1lu530sBucE #equitymarkets

In this quarter’s newsletter, we consider parallels between today’s market and the dot-com bubble. While artificial intelligence, liquidity, and government stimulus fuel optimism, valuation suggests that it may not be sustainable. https://ow.ly/RF9230sBkZA #equitymarkets

Ever wondered how much that new phone costs to make, or why gas prices seem to jump overnight? Believe it or not, the answer is #FINANCE! 💼 The truth is, finance isn't just for adults with fancy suits. It's the secret sauce behind everything from the latest #tech gadgets to the world's biggest companies. 💡 Here's a peek behind the curtain: 💹 Financial #markets are like giant online marketplaces where people buy and sell things like #stocks (pieces of companies) and currencies (like Pound or Dollars). 📈 Financial #news isn't just about boring numbers. It tells the story of what's happening in the world – trade wars, new inventions, and even climate change – can all affect the financial markets! Why should YOU care? Staying informed about financial trends can help you make smarter choices about your future. For example, understanding how interest rates work will help you decide when to save or borrow money. 💰 Here are some ways to stay ahead: 📱 Follow financial influencers on social media (do your research to pick reliable sources!). 📰 Read financial news articles aimed. Remember, financial literacy is like a superpower! 💪 #finance #financialliteracy #smartchoices #financialmarkets #moneymanagement

Bank for International Settlements – BIS - Artificial intelligence and big holdings data: opportunities for central banks Source: https://lnkd.in/g6AaUyhy #ai #big #data #opportunities #overview #central #bank Credits: Xavier Gabaix Ralph Koijen Robert Richmond Motohiro Yogo Highlights: Modern central banks use a rich set of policy tools to achieve their policy objectives. In this short nontechnical companion article to our main conference paper (Gabaix et al. (2024)), we explain how a quantitatively realistic model of the asset demand system is essential to assess ex post, and predict ex ante, how policy interventions impact asset prices, the distribution of wealth across households and institutions, and financial stability. Asset demand systems specify the demand of investors for financial assets and the supply of securities by firms. By combining the model of the asset demand system with the market clearing condition, we obtain a model of asset prices. Due to the improved availability of big holdings data and advances in modeling techniques, estimating asset demand systems is now a practical reality. We show how demand systems provide improved information for policy decisions (e.g., in the context of financial contagion, convenience yield or the strength of the dollar) or to design optimal policies (e.g., in the context of quantitative easing or designing climate stress tests). We discuss how recent AI methods can be used to improve models of the asset demand system by better measuring asset and investor similarity through so-called embeddings. These embeddings can for instance be used for policy making by central banks to understand the rebalancing channel of asset purchase programs and to measure crowded trades.