Northstar Analytics’ Post

Yes, you can have both in 2024! For the Pacific real estate sector, we expect mid to high single-digit income growth and flat/modestly higher capital values by the end of 2024. Development activity and profits are likely to bottom out. - For Industrial and Residential, we see a continuation of last year's “rent-a-demic” as vacancy remains tight. Low supply should sustain a higher level of rents. - We also forecast further tightening of vacancy in “premium” segments of Office and Retail, in-turn driving rent growth in select sub-markets.  - We’ve pulled Office supply growth back from 1.7% to 1.0% pa to 2028. We estimate 2024 residential apartment construction is likely to be c45% below the 2017 peak level. Likewise, Shopping Centre and Large Format Retail supply is likely to be c51% below 2017 levels. - We expect cap rate expansion of another 25bps-50bps in Q1 2024, before flat-lining into late 2024. - Falling interest rates should provide a capital value tailwind for “growth” sectors including Industrial and Residential.  https://lnkd.in/gyN8eie8 #cbreresearch

CBRE's H1 2024 Cap Rate Survey provides key insights into real estate capital markets, with data informed by deals that took place in the first five months of 2024. The survey shows that cap rates have generally remained steady but have reacted differently depending on property type. Most respondents believe that cap rates have now peaked, but they don’t expect a sales volume recovery until 2025.   Key Takeaways: -Most survey respondents predicted no change in cap rates in the next six months.   -Persistent inflation and interest rates have delayed a recovery in sales volume until 2025.   -Different property types reacted differently to market changes with average industrial cap rates falling in H1 2024 and office yields continuing to climb.   -Class A office cap rates exceeded 8% and less competitive Class C spaces were in the low teens.

CBRE’s latest report offers a cautiously optimistic view for U.S. real estate in 2025, projecting a 10% recovery in investment sales volume driven by industrial, multifamily, and retail assets. Despite expected cap rate compression across sectors, persistent headwinds like high Treasury yields, fiscal policy, and inflation remain top of mind. Investors should stay attuned to macroeconomic drivers and capitalize on emerging opportunities, from Class A office and multifamily properties to evolving supply chains boosting industrial demand. With global capital flows and sector-specific resilience, the coming year promises a complex but rewarding landscape for strategic investors. 🌎💼 Website: mclennanindustrial.com  Bio: https://lnkd.in/gJihJmJ9  Google Business Page: https://lnkd.in/gHn-YT5m  YouTube: https://lnkd.in/gxz7UURi  Instagram: https://lnkd.in/g3gNBFkV  Facebook: https://lnkd.in/gNmDVBBE  X: https://lnkd.in/g4f-8_aJ  TikTok: https://lnkd.in/g8_RtaNV  LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/gms5TXMP #PugetSound #TenantRepresentation #LandlordRepresentation #SIOR #CCIM #IAMC #NAIOP #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #IndustrialRealEstate #Industrial #Logistics #Manufacturing #Warehouse #Seattle #Tacoma #KidderMathews #Kidder #SupplyChain #CommercialLand #WarehouseSpace #Warehouse #KingCounty #PierceCounty #ThurstonCounty #Seattle #Tacoma #RealEstate #SupplyChainManagement

CBRE’s 2025 U.S. real estate market outlook signals cautious optimism, with opportunities in industrial, multifamily, and retail sectors despite ongoing risks. While investment sales are predicted to rise by 10%, investors will remain cautious due to high Treasury yields and potential fiscal policy challenges. Cap rates are expected to compress slightly across various property types, although higher interest rates will maintain them at levels above the last cycle. Key considerations for investors include capital market conditions, fiscal policy, and potential geopolitical risks. Opportunities may emerge in well-located office properties, multifamily demand, and evolving industrial supply chains. Website: mclennanindustrial.com  Bio: https://lnkd.in/gJihJmJ9  Google Business Page: https://lnkd.in/gHn-YT5m  YouTube: https://lnkd.in/gxz7UURi  Instagram: https://lnkd.in/g3gNBFkV  Facebook: https://lnkd.in/gNmDVBBE  X: https://lnkd.in/g4f-8_aJ  TikTok: https://lnkd.in/g8_RtaNV  LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/gms5TXMP #PugetSound #TenantRepresentation #LandlordRepresentation #SIOR #CCIM #IAMC #NAIOP #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #IndustrialRealEstate #Industrial #Logistics #Manufacturing #Warehouse #Seattle #Tacoma #KidderMathews #Kidder #SupplyChain #CommercialLand #WarehouseSpace #Warehouse #KingCounty #PierceCounty #ThurstonCounty #Seattle #Tacoma #RealEstate #SupplyChainManagement

Global real estate snapshot from JLL, as we move through 2024. Overall a mixed picture, with some brights spots. No surprise that the outlook on global interest rates is driving sentiment. As rates reduce into 2025, expectation that momentum will pick-up. Wider bid/offer spreads reflect this, though more realistic price discovery in the US and UK is leading to transactions. By sector, there is a gradual improvement in office leasing, logistics is cooling, and continued robustness in retail and hospitality. #realestate #office #retail #logistics #hospitality ALTA website: https://lnkd.in/gNWd8zwt

Check out the Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Macro Outlook Report to see where we think the various CRE markets will be heading over the next few years. For #industrial, key highlights include further moderating of #rent growth in 2024/2025, #vacancy peaking early next year, #absorption reaching approximately 100 msf in 2024 before doubling in 2025, and new #supply in 2024 totaling about 380 msf before dropping off markedly the following year. #forecast #economy #demand #logistics #warehouse #development #manufacturing #ecommerce https://lnkd.in/eZxAXGzu

The Dexus research team has released the Australian Real Asset Review for Q4 2024. This report captures the key trends in Australia’s main real asset markets, including commercial real estate, healthcare and infrastructure. This quarter, we also include a spotlight on the office sector. Key insights include: ◾ Substantial lifts in commercial real estate and infrastructure deal flow: commercial real estate transactions up 18% and infrastructure deals doubled to US$5.6 billion ◾ Shopping centres are now outperforming other sectors: with high yields, improving rents, and occupancy ◾ Averages hiding office sector strengths: effective rent levels in core precincts are much higher than other precincts and the gap is widening ◾ There is also a divergence in office vacancy rates: premium buildings in core Sydney and Melbourne CBDs have <10% vacancy Peter Studley, Dexus Head of Research said: "Real asset investment markets passed a watershed moment in September when the US Federal Reserve cut its cash rate. Consensus forecasts for Australian interest rates to fall in 2025 bodes well for liquidity and real asset values in the year ahead.” Read more: https://lnkd.in/g2NmFiya James Melville Isabella Croker Matea Callus

Following the release of our Q3 market reports, in this video CBRE Ireland’s Head of Research Colin Richardson summarises some of the key trends from the data and also provides a market outlook for the remainder of the year. Key Highlights: 📉 With interest rates falling, swap rates are now at the lowest point since the onset of interest rate hikes in mid-2022. ✅ 60% of all Dublin office take-up in Q3 involved BER A rated space, and total take-up is on course to reach over 185,000 sq m in 2024. 💶 A bumper Q4 is expected in the investment market. Total spend this year could reach €2.5bn. 🏢 Yields are now trending stable across several of the key sectors, most notably prime offices, some of the retail subsectors, and residential assets. 📢 With the date for the next general election now confirmed, a review of rent cap regulation is required to attract institutional capital back to the residential market. cbre.ie/research

🔹 Targeted gross IRRs seen marketed for new funds and deals declined modestly across all four main property types (industrial, multifamily, retail, office) compared to the prior quarter. 🔹 Canadian survey respondents expect debt funds and banks to have the greatest amount of capital availability over the next year. 🔹 Cost of capital, development costs, and inflation remain top priorities for the next 12 months, while concerns about operating costs and tenant retention have also increased. 🔹 The majority of Canadian respondents (63.2%) believe ESG needs “investor or market demand” for it to be more widely considered and incorporated by the CRE industry.

European Real Estate Outlook 2025: Navigating the Future 🌍 The European real estate market is undergoing significant transformation, with evolving challenges and emerging opportunities. As we approach 2025, strategic investment decisions are critical. At 5 Stone Capital B.V., we are closely monitoring these shifts to guide our clients and partners. Here’s what to expect: 📈 Key Market Trends: Prime Market Adjustments: After price corrections, some assets are now up to 20% lower than 2022 levels, creating opportunities for savvy investors. Transaction volumes are expected to rise in late 2024 and early 2025. While double-digit returns may be challenging, value-driven investments in a stabilizing market remain promising. Sector-Specific Dynamics: Demand for #logistics, multifamily #housing, and prime #retail spaces continues to outpace supply. Limited new supply supports robust rental growth, with market fundamentals outweighing inflationary pressures. #Sustainability & #ESG: The demand for green buildings and energy-efficient redevelopments continues to rise, driven by regulatory demands and tenant preferences. ESG considerations are becoming essential for market competitiveness. ⚠️ Ongoing #Challenges: Financing Pressures: Higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions are challenging financing for secondary assets. Institutional investors face capital constraints due to the "denominator effect," leading to an increase in equity-driven strategies. Sector Disparities: While #logistics and Grade A #office spaces show resilience, secondary office and retail sectors face value corrections and liquidity issues due to changing workplace trends and consumer behavior. 🚀 #Outlook for 2025: While 2024 may be a year of recalibration, 2025 is expected to bring a more favorable investment environment, driven by stabilizing interest rates, improving economic conditions, and increased liquidity. Investors should focus on high-quality, ESG-compliant assets for long-term success. Disclaimer: These insights are based on reputable sources for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. #RealEstate #Investments #EconomicOutlook #5StoneCapital #Sustainability #LogisticsRealEstate #EuropeanMarkets #RentalGrowth