OBX Data’s Post

📊 Summary of Oil Industry Movements - Week 42 Speculative Interest: ⚡ Net spec length saw a significant increase, suggesting a bullish outlook for oil prices. Chinese Imports: ⚡ Commodity imports from China continue to rise, despite macro headwinds. Diesel vs. Nat Gas: ⚡ The price gap between Diesel and European Nat Gas is narrowing, potentially indicating a floor for Diesel prices. US Refinery Shutdowns: ⚡ P66's decision to shut its LA refinery will further constrain US refining capacity. Chinese Refinery Runs: ⚡ Chinese refinery runs have rebounded but remain below last year's peak due to weak margins. Overall, the oil market is showing signs of bullish momentum, driven by increased speculative interest and strong demand from China. However, factors such as the narrowing price gap between Diesel and Nat Gas and the ongoing challenges facing US refining capacity could introduce some volatility. #oil #oott #oilandgas #saas

Happy Friday! In our Global LNG report this week: Asian spot liquefied natural gas (#LNG) prices inched up this week as temperatures below seasonal normal levels in #China pushed buyers back into the market, especially as prices had recently fallen below that of some oil-linked contracts. The average LNG price for April delivery into north-east Asia rose to $8.60 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), a level last seen in late April 2021, from $8.30 the previous week, industry sources estimated. "This week, we've seen Chinese LNG imports being supported by chilly weather, especially in the southern regions," said Ryhana A. R. , LNG analyst at data analytics firm Kpler. "There is also the potential for emerging spot demand to keep imports lifted in the weeks ahead as spot prices have fallen below some oil-linked contracts," she added. Overnight temperatures for north-east China are forecast to remain below seasonal norms through the second half of March — later than the typical mid-March end to the region’s heating season, said Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus said. Good added that the Chinese demand that emerged this week is largely for deliveries later this year and into 2025 and from regional firms. In #Europe, gas storage remains at record highs for the time of year. Continued weak industrial demand and abnormally mild weather are leaving the market comfortably positioned for the rest of the winter and thereby reducing storage injection demand for the summer ahead, said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS. "The market’s looking pretty well-supplied at the moment and for the summer ahead but it doesn’t look like it will be slipping to 2020 pandemic levels anytime soon," Froley said. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in April on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $7.962/mmBtu on March 7, a $0.40/mmBtu discount to the April gas price at the Dutch TTF hub. Argus assessed the price at $7.950/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $7.861/mmBtu. Meanwhile, continued tensions in the Red Sea have strengthened the East Mediterranean's premium to north-west Europe. With Qatari cargoes bypassing the #Suez Canal in favour of the longer route through the Cape of Good Hope, the added voyage time has forced East Mediterranean countries to pay a higher premium for spot cargoes, S&P said. In the United States, U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 6% to a one-week low on Thursday on smaller-than-usual storage withdrawals last week when warmer-than-normal weather kept heating demand low. Spot LNG freight rates continued to trade in a tight range, with Atlantic rates estimated at $50,250/day on Friday, and Pacific rates at $51,500/day, said Qasim Afghan, an analyst at Spark Commodities.

🌍 Crude Oil Markets Facing a 2025 Surplus – What’s Next? The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected a major surplus in crude oil supply by 2025, with growth outpacing demand by over 1 million barrels per day. A significant driver? The slowing demand in China, where economic shifts and a focus on cleaner energy sources are reshaping consumption patterns. With non-OPEC+ producers ramping up output and market dynamics evolving rapidly, businesses must adapt to stay competitive. 💡 What does this mean for you? At ICIS, we provide the data and insights you need to make informed decisions in these unpredictable markets. https://lnkd.in/gxFwG3ya

📊 Energy Market Intelligence Update: Numbers Tell the Story Just dove into today's fascinating energy market dynamics, and the data is telling a compelling story. Here's what caught my strategic eye: US crude production has shattered records, hitting an unprecedented 13.513 million barrels per day. Yet simultaneously, our inventories are running 5% below the five-year average – a classic supply-demand puzzle. Key market movers today: WTI crude: -2.00% ($1.40 decline) RBOB gasoline: -1.19% drop EIA reported a surprising 5.07M barrel draw in crude inventories US rig count at a 2-3/4 year low of 477 rigs What's particularly intriguing is the global picture: Bloomberg's vessel tracking shows Russian exports jumped by 570K bpd to 3.36M bpd, while China's demand dropped 5.4% YoY to 14.07M bpd. All eyes are on the December 5 OPEC+ online meeting. Market intelligence suggests they might delay their planned 180K bpd production increase until Q2 2025. These numbers paint a complex picture of global energy dynamics. What's your take on these market movements? #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #MarketIntelligence #GlobalTrade #EconomicAnalysis #OPEC #EnergyTransition #MarketAnalysis #CommodityTrading #GlobalMarkets

Crude oil prices looked set for yet another weekly loss, pressured by the perception of softer-than-expected demand in China. The decline comes in spite of the International Energy Agency’s recent upward revision of oil demand growth for this year. That could be because the agency also revised its 2025 demand growth projection, but downwards. For this year, the IEA sees demand growth at 920,000 bpd, while for 2025, it forecast growth of 990,000 bpd. Neither figure is impressive for oil traders, and the prediction of a supply surplus for 2025…

🔋 Energy Market Intelligence Update: Data-Driven Oil Market Analysis Breaking down the latest movements in the global oil markets with some fascinating numbers: 📊 Key Market Indicators: US crude production holding steady at an all-time high of 13.5 million barrels per day Chinese oil demand showing significant shift: -6.98% YoY to 14.176M bpd Libya makes dramatic comeback, hitting 1.3M bpd - highest in 2 months Russian exports climb to 3.46M bpd (+150,000 bpd) 💹 Market Performance: WTI crude futures (CLZ24) declined 0.82% US crude inventories tracking -3.6% below 5-year average Active US oil rigs: 482 (up from July's 2.5-year low of 477) 📈 Economic Indicators Supporting Energy Demand: US manufacturing PMI: 47.8 (+0.5) US new home sales: 738,000 (+4.1% m/m) Eurozone manufacturing PMI: 45.9 (5-month high) What's your take on these market dynamics? Are we seeing a fundamental shift in global energy patterns? #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #MarketAnalysis #GlobalTrade #OilAndGas #EconomicIndicators #MarketIntelligence #CommodityTrading #FinancialMarkets

Have you ever wondered why crude oil prices fluctuate so frequently? 🤔 Understanding the factors that impact the supply and demand of crude oil can help us make sense of these fluctuations. Set of reasons why OPEC has been continuously cutting oil production. 🛢️ Additionally, specific benchmarks like Brent and WTI are used for oil trading. Stay informed on the latest updates and trends in the energy sector to stay ahead of the game. ⚡ Read my recent story on Medium: https://lnkd.in/gFuPskJ8. #crudeoil #OPEC #energysector #Brent #WTI

Natural gas market developments: prices bouncing back from the cold I am pleased to share a blog by my colleagues Paolo Agnolucci and Matias Urzúa, summarizing the latest developments and future outlook of the global natural gas markets. The blog post is part of a special series based on the April 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. After experiencing large drops in 2024Q1 due to a mild winter, natural gas prices rebounded in mid-June. By the last week of June, U.S. and European natural gas prices were 80 and 25 percent higher, respectively, compared to their average in March. The surge in U.S. prices was driven by increased demand for power generation and expectations of higher flows from U.S. LNG (liquefied natural gas) export terminals in the coming months. In Europe, concerns over recent outages contributed to the price rise. Additionally, both markets benefited from robust LNG demand from Asia. Natural gas prices are expected to be significantly lower in 2024 than in the previous two years, with a recovery anticipated in 2025. Blog (June 28, 2024): https://lnkd.in/eMBbyhRW Pinksheet (June, 4, 2024): https://lnkd.in/en4ckgB9 Commodity Markets Outlook (April 25, 2024): https://lnkd.in/dhfrkftu World Bank Commodities: https://lnkd.in/dQ-8CUm Commodity Markets—Evolution, Challenges, and Policies (November 2022): https://lnkd.in/gWttrnti

Global crude oil demand slumped to 710,000 bbl/day in Q2 2024 as China’s post-pandemic economic rebound ran its course, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today. Representing the slowest quarterly increase since the closing months of 2022, the period saw Chinese demand decline in April and May, the agency said in its July monthly oil market report. https://lnkd.in/d-_nVg3Z

Petroleum inventories declined slightly last week. The EIA reports are out and overall, we declined 3.3 MMB to 1629 MMB. SPR climbed 1.4 MMB to 392 MMB. Crude oil inventories declined 5.1 MMB to 423 MMB. Petroleum product inventories increased only 0.4 MMB to 814 MMB.  The latter combined for a draw of 4.7 MMB on the combined inventory. That’s upward pressure on gasoline prices. All levels are in their normal operating ranges, considering SPR established a new low late last year. Net oil imported was 3.1 MMB/D and net petroleum products exported was 6.1 MMB/D. The result is 3.0 MMB/D out, a drawdown of 21.12 MMB for the week. We remain energy independent and a net exporter of products. Production climbed again to 13.6 MMB/D. The rig count also increased, up seven rigs, up five rigs chasing oil and two chasing gas (482 oil/102 gas). Two more rigs were added in the federal offshore, one in the GOM. WTI crude prices climbed $3.32/BBL while Brent lost 38 cents. LLS has been holding steady at $71/BBL and change. WTI finished last week at $68.58/BBL. Add $5.20/BBL for Brent and $2.60/BBL for LLS. Gasoline has been bouncing above $3/GAL. It was $3.03/GAL Thursday a week ago. The 3-2-1 crack spread was $8.80/BBL, down almost $2/BBL from Friday a week earlier. Natural gas at Henry Hub lost 56¢ to $2.83/MMBTU and futures lost 13¢ $3.18/MMBTU. Jennifer Hiller writes in the WSJ’s Climate and Energy, “A $20 Billion Plan to Power Data Centers Faster”. “Tech companies have a huge appetite for electricity to power AI data centers and an even bigger problem. Connecting to the grid and building new generation is a complex, yearslong grind. “To speed the process, Alphabet’s Google, clean energy developer Intersect Power and private equity firm TPG’s Rise Climate fund plan to build massive industrial parks to combine data centers with renewable power generation and battery storage. “An investment target for this decade aims to add $20 billion in new renewable power infrastructure that would be paired with gigawatts of data center capacity across the U.S., the companies said Tuesday. The idea is that co-locating would ease the burden on the electric grid and allow development to go faster. Projects will still be grid connected. “The first industrial park project—in a yet undisclosed location—aims to start operating in 2026 and be complete by 2027.” Later she writes, “Electricity demand forecasts from U.S. utilities continue to rise, with the latest expectation of a roughly 16% increase by 2029, according to a new report from Grid Strategies, a power-sector consulting firm.” Expansion of electricity demand may paint a rosy picture, but the EIA stats do not show growth in the present. August stats are out and show 2024 electricity 3% ahead of year’s low water mark, but no where near the high-water mark of 2022. The growth is not yet evident. Check out Haley Zaremba’s Dec 12 article in Oilprice.com, “The End of Lithium? Proton Batteries Offer Hope for Clean Energy”.