Oleg Shklovtsov’s Post

📰 A sharp increase in the #price of #soybean #oil in Chicago supported the prices of other vegetable oils 📈 August soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 6.8% this week to the highest level since April at $1,035/t amid increased use of soybean oil in US biodiesel production and higher oil prices.   ⚖ According to the USDA, in May the volume of soybean processing in the USA increased by 7.9% compared to April to 5.23 million tons.   📈 September Brent oil futures on the ICE Futures exchange in London rose by 10% to $86.3/barrel (+2.1% for the week) on the back of improving data on the economy in the US and a possible escalation between Lebanon and Israel during the month ), which is the maximum value since the end of April.   🤔 The quotation supports the expected increase in demand for oil and fuel due to increased travel by Americans on Independence Day. In addition, the strengthening of Hurricane Beryl, which has been forming in the Atlantic since the beginning of the year, to the 5th category, may lead to a reduction in oil production in the United States.   💡 It is worth considering that the Russian Federation continues to increase oil production, and in May increased it to 9.39 million barrels/day, which is 3.8% higher than the agreed target of 9.049 million barrels/day. In addition, during June 24-30, oil exports from the Russian Federation increased by 620,000 barrels/day to a 2-month high of 3.67 million barrels/day, which will increase pressure on prices in the near future.   📈 August #palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange also rose 6% during the week to 4,089 ringgit/t or $867/t (+2.7 % per month).   💡 Malaysia cut palm oil exports by 15.4% in June compared to May, according to surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia, but the market is awaiting official data on production, exports and stocks.   📈 On the Dalian exchange, the most active contract for soybean oil rose by 2.1% yesterday, and for palm oil - by 2.75%.   🔎 According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers remains at the level of last month at $930/t, as the volume of rapeseed oil offers has significantly increased on the EU market. 📻 Source: GrainTrade / Ukrainian electronic grain exchange Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 9% for the week to 3,926 ringgit/t, or $821/t (-10.6% for two weeks), amid slower exports and lower soybean oil prices. Chicago May soybean oil futures fell 3.6% to $978/t for the week (-10% in two weeks) amid advancing soybean harvest in Argentina and lower soybean prices. According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers for the week fell by 0.7% to $867/t (-2% in two weeks), in particular in Ukraine – by $5-10/t to $790-800 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, $840/t with delivery to Bulgaria and $870-880/t with delivery to Italy. https://lnkd.in/dYeSH_JS

June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 9% for the week to 3,926 ringgit/t, or $821/t (-10.6% for two weeks), amid slower exports and lower soybean oil prices. Chicago May soybean oil futures fell 3.6% to $978/t for the week (-10% in two weeks) amid advancing soybean harvest in Argentina and lower soybean prices. According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers for the week fell by 0.7% to $867/t (-2% in two weeks), in particular in Ukraine – by $5-10/t to $790-800 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, $840/t with delivery to Bulgaria and $870-880/t with delivery to Italy. https://lnkd.in/dYeSH_JS

June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 9% for the week to 3,926 ringgit/t, or $821/t (-10.6% for two weeks), amid slower exports and lower soybean oil prices. Chicago May soybean oil futures fell 3.6% to $978/t for the week (-10% in two weeks) amid advancing soybean harvest in Argentina and lower soybean prices. According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers for the week fell by 0.7% to $867/t (-2% in two weeks), in particular in Ukraine – by $5-10/t to $790-800 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, $840/t with delivery to Bulgaria and $870-880/t with delivery to Italy. https://lnkd.in/d6EHDe4k

📰 Prices for #palm and #sunflower #oil have slightly decreased, while those for #soybean oil remain consistently low 🤔 As the rapeseed harvest begins in Europe and the expectation of increased availability of new crop rapeseed oil grows, the demand from European biodiesel producers, who actively bought soybean and sunflower oils from Ukraine in May, has started to decline, leading to a reduction in prices.   🔎 Over the past week, the asking prices for soybean and sunflower oils from Ukraine decreased by $20-30 per ton to $900-920 per ton with delivery to Poland and Bulgaria, which is also linked to the decline of the euro against the dollar. According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil delivered to buyers decreased by 1% over the week to $933 per ton (+7.2% for the month), but the shortage of supplies from Ukraine supports the quotations.   📉 During the past week, August futures for palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia exchange fell by 1.2% to 3900 ringgits per ton or $828 per ton, under pressure from the slowdown in export rates in June following May. According to independent surveyors AmSpec Agri Malaysia and Intertek Testing Services, the export of Malaysian palm oil products from June 1 to 20 fell by 8.1% - 12.9% compared to the same period in May.   📉 Pressure on quotations is also exerted by the decline in soybean oil prices on the Dalian exchange by 0.99%, and palm oil by 0.78% at the end of the week.   📈 July futures for soybean oil in Chicago rose by 1% over the week to $968 per ton (-2.4% for the month), supported by rising oil prices.   📈 August futures for Brent crude oil on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by 3.1% over the week to $85.2 per barrel (+3.9% for the month) due to increased risks of a potential war between Israel and Lebanon.   🤔 The rise in oil prices is expected to support vegetable oil prices in the near future. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/eBqZzaje Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

Prices for palm and sunflower oil declined slightly, while soybean oil remained steadily low Amid the beginning of the harvest of rapeseed in Europe and the expectation of increased supply of rapeseed oil from the new harvest, there is a decrease in demand from European biodiesel producers, which actively bought soybean and sunflower oil from Ukraine in may, which led to a sharp rise in prices. During the past week, the demand prices for soybean and sunflower oil from Ukraine decreased by 20-30 $/t to 900-920 $/t with delivery to Poland and Bulgaria, which is also due to the depreciation of the euro against the dollar. According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil for delivery to buyers for the week decreased by 1% to 933 $/t (+7.2% for the month), but the shortage of supply from Ukraine supports the quotes. Over the past week, the August futures for palm oil on the Bursa exchange in Malaysia decreased by 1.2% to 3900 ringgit/t or 828 $/t under pressure from the slowdown in exports in June after may. According to independent surveyors AmSpec Agri Malaysia and Intertek Testing Services, the export of Malaysian palm oil products for the period from 1 to 20 June fell by 8.1%-12.9% compared to the same period in May. Additional pressure on the quotes is exerted by the decline in prices for soybean oil on the Dalian stock exchange by 0.99%, and for palm oil by 0.78% at the end of the week. July futures for soybean oil in Chicago for the week rose 1% to 968 $/t (-2.4% for the month), receiving support from rising oil prices. August futures for Brent crude oil on the London ICE Futures exchange for the week increased by 3.1% to 85.2 $/barrel (+3.9% for the month) due to increased risks of Israel’s war against Lebanon. Rising oil prices will support vegetable oil prices in the near future.

📰 Sunflower oil is falling in #price amid falling prices for palm and soybean #oil 🤔 Oil prices fell slightly yesterday after earlier speculative gains, despite Iran's shelling of Israel on Saturday, as the latter has not yet responded to the attack, and therefore the conflict has not escalated into open military confrontation.   📈 Brent June futures on London's ICE Futures exchange rose 0.8% to $90.45/barrel on Friday and fell 0.34% to $90.14/barrel on Monday (-0, 5% per week, +4.5% per month).   🤔 Oil prices were followed by palm oil and soybean oil quotes, especially as a report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board turned out to be more upbeat than traders expected, adding pressure on quotes.   💡 According to the report, Malaysia in March compared to February increased crude palm oil production by 10.57% to 1.39 million tons and exports by 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, as a result of which stocks decreased by 10, 68% to the 10-month low of 1.71 million tons.   📉 June #palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia yesterday fell 1.86% to 4,204 ringgit/t or $880/t (-2.2% for the week).   🔎 For April 1-15, the export of palm oil from Malaysia increased in comparison with the same period in March by 9.2% to 633.7 thousand tons according to the estimates of the surveyor Intertek Testing Services and by 28.5% to 697.45 thousand tons according to the data of the surveyor Amspec Agri Malaysia. After the end of Ramadan, oil production will increase.   ⚖ In an April report, the USDA raised its forecast for global production of vegetable oils from 222.85 to 223.17 million tons (217.88 million tons in FY 2022/23), and lowered its forecast for palm oil imports to India and China by 0.2 million tons to 9 and 6 million tons, respectively, and its export from Indonesia by 0.35 to 27.35 million tons.   📉 May futures for #soybean oil in Chicago for the week fell by 5.2% to $1,002/t (-7.2% for the month) against the background of increasing offers of cheap soybeans from South America. Quotations were not supported even by data on the increase in soybean processing in the USA.   🔎 According to Trading Economics, for the week the average price of #sunflower oil with delivery to buyers decreased by 0.8% to $873/t, and in Ukraine prices fell by $5-10/t to $800-805/t with delivery to ports Black Sea, $840-850/t with delivery to Bulgaria, $880-890/t with delivery to Italy.   📊 Against the backdrop of a decrease in the forecast of palm oil exports, the USDA increased the forecast of sunflower oil exports from Ukraine by 0.15 to 5.9 million tons and the Russian Federation by 0.1 to 4.4 million tons due to an increase in imports by Egypt by 0.25 to 0.6 million t. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/e5msGt7y Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

📰 Falling crude oil and #soybean #oil prices have not yet affected palm and #sunflower oil quotes 🤔 This week's 5.4% drop in crude oil prices and 5.3% drop in Chicago soybean oil prices have so far not affected palm and sunflower oil prices, which are supported by a pick-up in physical demand.   📉 June Brent oil futures on London's ICE Futures exchange fell 4.7% to $83.8/barrel for the week, and July soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 5.2% to $952/barrel. t.   📉 A report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board was more upbeat than traders had expected, with June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia falling just 0.8% for the week to 3,844 ringgit/t, or $809/t, while the market had expected their sharp decline following oil prices.   ⚖ In March, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia increased by 10.57% compared to February to 1.39 million tons, and exports (in particular to India) - by 28.61% to 1.32 million tons, as a result of which stocks decreased by 10.68% to the 10-month low of 1.71 million tons.   📊 The world's largest buyer of vegetable oils, India, in April increased palm oil imports compared to March by 41% to a 3-month high. At the same time, Malaysia in April reduced palm oil exports compared to March by 9-11.5% (according to surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Amspec Agri) as a result of reduced demand.   ⚖ According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), in February 2024, palm oil exports from Indonesia decreased by 34% to 2.17 million tons compared to February 2023. This indicates that buyers prefer cheaper competitors - soybean and sunflower oil   🔎 According to Trading Economics, during the week the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to buyers fell by 13% to $857/t, in particular in #Ukraine – by $5-10/t to $790-800/t for deliveries to Black Sea ports. At the same time, the demand for oil deliveries to Poland, Italy and the Baltic countries grew, for which buyers are ready to pay $870-900/ton.   🤔 Delays in soybean harvest in Argentina are disrupting soybean oil supply timelines, helping EU sunflower and canola oil sellers to sell their products.   💡 According to Share UA Potential, Ukraine exported 628,000 tons of sunflower oil in April 2024, which is 15% higher than in April 2023 and corresponds to the level of the previous three months. In total, 4.4 million tons of sunflower oil were exported in 2023/24 MR, compared to 3.7 million tons for this period last year.   🔎 During the 2023 calendar year, Ukraine exported 5.7 million tons of sunflower oil worth $5 billion, while in 2022, 4.3 million tons of oil worth $5.5 billion were exported. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/e4jkmdwi Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

FYI: *Palm Oil Falls on Stiff Competition With Soybean Oil* (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil headed for its lowest close in two weeks on intensifying competition with rival soybean oil and as weaker prices of petroleum reduced the tropical oil’s biofuel appeal. Some buyers are turning to soybean oil, which is now trading almost on par with palm oil, said Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Manzoor Trading in Lahore.    Soybean oil’s premium over palm oil has become almost zero now, compared with a high of $565 in the past 12 months, partly due to a 15% slump in soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade this year. Benchmark palm oil prices have gained 4.4% so far in 2024 in Kuala Lumpur.  Weaker petroleum prices are also putting pressure on the market, Hameed said. Crude oil is set for its deepest weekly loss in almost a year on worries about weaker demand and ample supplies. Prices have been falling since early July on concerns about demand from key consumers, particularly China. *Drivers* Oil Set for Deep Weekly Loss Even as OPEC+ Delays Adding Barrels Malaysia Sept. 1-05 Palm Oil Exports +9.2% M/m: Intertek Indonesia Plans to Set Palm Oil Export Levy as Percentage  Ringgit Steady; Bond Yields Flat; Stocks Down: Inside Malaysia *Prices* Palm for November delivery on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives drops 0.8% to 3,885 ringgit/ton as of midday break; +4.4% YTD Soybean oil for December in Chicago drops 1.1% to 40.70c/lb Refined palm oil for January on Dalian Commodity Exchange flat at 7,862 yuan/ton; soybean oil for January +0.2% to 7,676 yuan/ton Soybean oil’s premium over palm little changed vs avg of ~$221 in past year: data compiled by Bloomberg Palm’s premium over gasoil ~$234/ton vs avg of ~$21 in past year: data compiled by Bloomberg

📰 A 9% drop in #palm oil and a 3.6% drop in #soybean oil prices for the week will increase pressure on #sunflower #oil prices 🤔 A 3.7% drop in oil prices for the week added pressure on palm oil prices, which were heavily overbought. Lower prices for palm oil will allow it to compete with soybean oil and strengthen its position in the Indian market, which is increasing imports of sunflower oil.   📉 June Brent oil futures on London's ICE Futures exchange fell 3.7% to $87.4/barrel (+2.8% for the month) for the week and may fall further if Iran does not escalate the situation. The decision of the US Congress to allocate aid to Ukraine and Israel will make Iran and the Russian Federation understand that Western countries will not allow them to violate the world order with impunity.   📉 June palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 9% for the week to 3,926 ringgit/t, or $821/t (-10.6% for two weeks), amid slower exports and lower soybean oil prices.   📉 Chicago May soybean oil futures fell 3.6% to $978/t for the week (-10% in two weeks) amid advancing soybean harvest in Argentina and lower soybean prices.   🔎 According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to customers for the week fell by 0.7% to $867/t (-2% in two weeks), in particular in Ukraine – by $5-10/t to $790-800 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, $840/t with delivery to Bulgaria and $870-880/t with delivery to Italy.   ⚖ According to the Vegetable Oil Producers Association of India (SEA), in the 5 months of FY2023/24, the country increased the import of sunflower oil by 20.9% to 1.35 million tons compared to the corresponding period last year, and decreased the import of palm oil by 22.9 % to 2.59 million tons and soybeans – by 39.6% to 882.94 thousand tons.   ⚖ At the same time, the Russian Federation increased supplies of sunflower oil to India by 53.7% to 490.62 thousand tons, Romania - by 3.2 times to 486.78 thousand tons, Argentina - by 2.3 times to 165.92 thousand tons.   🚀 On Friday, the Russian Federation attacked two oil extraction plants in the port of Pivdenny to reduce the export of sunflower oil from Ukraine and gain an advantage in the world market for sales of Russian oil. After the "gas war" with Europe in 2022 and the "grain" war with Ukraine in 2022-23, the Russian Federation started a new war against Ukrainian sunflower oil. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/ejnEwVe7 Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.