Olga Rybachuk’s Post

11 April became the “black” day for Ukrainian coal generation. 😔 ❗❗ During a massive combined attack on Ukrainian energy with drones and missiles of various types (there were 82 units of weapon in total, including 6 aeroballistic “Kinzhals” ), russians fully destroyed Trypilska TPP, which was the last remaining power plant belonging to the state company “Centrenergo”. Trypilska TPP supplied electricity to three regions: Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Zhytomyr.   ❗ As the experts explained, Trypilska TPP generated more than 1 GW of electricity. But the loss even of this electricity amount is significant for the Ukrainian power system, as the latter has already a certain electricity shortage.     The last russians’ attacks on Ukrainian territory aimed at destroying its power system and are nothing more than another kind of terrorism targeting civilian infrastructure. There is only one way to deal with this horrific attacks which is on the battlefield where Ukrainian defenders are fighting against those who want to take over our freedom, peaceful life, and independence. #supportukraine to defeat russia as soon as possible. Source: https://lnkd.in/dbtgSZDC

#CNO (Computer Network Operations) by and against Russia are heating up. In Germany during the last days, most security discussions have been centered around the interception of a German airforce conference-call about Taurus missiles by Russian intelligence. While embarassing from an #OpSec viewpoint, neither the content nor the likely attack vectors are spectacular. It is more relevant in view of #PsyOps and hybrid warfare as it has quite an impact on Chancellor Scholz' positioning and the #NATO allies view of Germany as a dependable partner. At the same time, though, a lot more is going on, some of which seems quite a bit more sophisticated than an intercepted phone call. #GUR (Ukrainian military intelligence) today announced a big breach of Russian MOD's servers, accessing documents (and "ciphers") to also get a full overview of organisational structures and identify key personnel of the Russians. https://lnkd.in/eCNvCEwV #Blackjack (a "Ukrainian hacking group" - FISU? SBU?) not long ago penetrated a construction company overseeing all Russian MOD construction contracts - i.e. blueprints/building-plans of military sites. https://lnkd.in/eDNwvbmF https://lnkd.in/eCFGxtx4 #BO Team recently breached and damaged (by manipulating the aircondition) a geoinformation center of Russia - weather and satellite data for Russian government entities. https://lnkd.in/eCC-4Dum I am not sure why so much of this communicated in the open. Maybe for morale reasons, maybe the Russians already caught on to it, maybe to distract from something else. Exciting developments nevertheless, and as a German I really hope that we are prepared for this level of conflict in the cyber-realm.

Situation update regarding the russian invasion as of 6.00 a.m., December 19, 2023 Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, posted 19 December 2023 07:06 During the past day, 105 combat engagements took place. In total, the enemy launched 1 missile and 6 air strikes, carried out 62 MLRS attacks At night, the Russian occupiers once again attacked Ukraine, using 2 Shahed-136/131 UAVs. Air defense destroyed all attack UAVs Over the past day, Ukranine's Air Force shot down 5 Shahed-136/131 UAVs and destroyed 1 Kh-59 guided missile Units of missile forces hit 2 areas of remote mining and 1 enemy artillery Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast) was hit by airstrikes. More than 140 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions came under artillery fire Khortytsia Joint Operations Force in the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainians repelled 5 enemy attacks in the areas of Synkivka and east of Petropavlivka, Kharkiv region Lyman direction, Ukrainians repelled 10 attacks by the occupiers near Makiivka, Luhansk oblast, and east of Terny, Spirne, Donetsk oblast Bakhmut direction, Ukrainians repelled 21 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka, Donetsk region. Ukrainian Forces continue to inflict losses on the enemy Tavria Joint Operations Force in the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainians continue to restrain the enemy, who does not stop trying to surround Avdiivka. Ukrainian Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks in the areas of Avdiivka and another 13 attacks near Severne, south of Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske, Donetsk region Marinka direction, Ukrainian Forces are holding back the enemy near Novomykhailivka Donetska, where 13 attacks were repelled Zaporizhzhia direction, our defenders repelled 17 enemy attacks west of Novopokrovka and Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia oblast Melitopol direction, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to actively inflict losses on the occupiers Odesa Joint Operations Force in the Kherson direction, Ukrainians continue to hold their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro River, conduct counter-battery combat, and inflict fire damage on the enemy https://lnkd.in/eTY-RzrT

Recognition of landscapes on the way and the rectification tower of a Russian oil refinery at the end of the path by a Ukrainian unmanned light aircraft without communication with the outside world, except for the perception available in a certain electromagnetic spectrum, does not turn this unmanned aircraft into a combatant according to the Geneva Conventions. Technical vision is a much more complex thing than correcting for the relief with an old cruise missile and correcting for Sirius with an old ballistic missile on a submarine. However, this is not a general artificial intelligence with the beginnings of self-awareness. It is a specialized artificial intelligence with the beginnings of multidimensional perception. It is still far from having feelings and the sensation of pain. Russian cruise missiles attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, trying to cut off the energy corridor between Ukraine and the EU, on the contrary, reduce the capabilities of recognizing the surrounding world and focus on correction based on simpler features. Their control systems become cheaper with the aim of maximizing production, as the Russians are running out of missiles, and not all production can be expanded in Iran and North Korea. We see a clear competition of quality against quantity in a war of attrition. Artificial intelligence systems are becoming cheaper to implement autonomously in a larger number of weapons. Weapons without artificial intelligence are becoming even simpler, so that more can be produced. For to everyone who has, more shall be given, and he will have an abundance; but from the one who does not have, even what he does have shall be taken away. But from the one who does not have, even what they have will be taken away. Ukraine will win because Artificial Intelligence in on Ukraine’s side. https://lnkd.in/dCBrbkBD

North Korea's missile capabilities, even at their best, fall short of Russia's modern technology, witch itself is not so high. Furthermore, the DPRK possesses only a limited number of relatively modern missiles. While there are numerous modifications of the older Scud missiles, these are primarily of symbolic value, offering marginally more threat than the relatively rudimentary gasoline drones developed by Iran. Putin might want DPRK missiles to enhance “Kim the Terrifying's'” image surpassing Hamas in intimidation. This could boost Kim’s confidence in his missile effectiveness, enabling him to launch attacks on his own, believing the world, already wary of Kim as it was of Putin, would not intervene. Russia could leverage 'Kim the Terrifying' to hinder the influx of South Korean and Japanese weaponry into Europe. By highlighting the potency of Kim's missiles, Russia might suggest an even greater threat to Kim's neighbors than to Ukraine. China hardly needs this stupid game. It may just be beneficial for China that South Korean and Japanese weapons run away to Europe, and not be used to prepare for a major war over Taiwan. Putin faces a challenge in shaping 'Kim the Terrible.' Kim Jong-un is likely aware of Hamas' situation, which might have been promised an easy victory and favorable negotiations with the West. However, Israel's strong response against Hamas, only pausing for negotiations under significant international pressure, presents a stark reality. For Russia to persuade Kim Jong-un that aggressive actions would be safe for his regime, it may first need to demonstrate the ability to prevent Hamas from facing total defeat. Russia evidently aims to maximize destruction, ideally using nuclear weapons. However, there is a fear of facing consequences for such actions. In Ukraine's case, Russia likely believed it would escape punishment, given Ukraine's lack of alliances and seemingly modest armed forces. Generally, Russia adheres to the global nuclear order, deterred by the potential repercussions of attacking a nation under nuclear protection. Russia is confident it won't face repercussions for provoking a DPRK attack. This belief might stem from the observation that no one has been punished for Hamas' attacks against Israel. Absent Israel's response, Hamas might have also avoided consequences. If Russia could orchestrate an attack by the DPRK and Iran on Ukraine or a Western country from Belarusian territory, it might do so. Currently, this seems unfeasible, but future possibilities are uncertain. How would the world respond if, hypothetically, weapons of mass destruction were deployed from Belarus against Ukraine or even a NATO country, and Putin claimed that Iranian ayatollahs and North Korean leaders were responsible? Ukraine's reaction is predictable – it would continue to defend its freedom.

Situation update regarding the russian invasion as of 6.00 a.m., December 24, 2023 Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, posted 24 December 2023 07:02 At night, the Russian occupiers once again attacked Ukraine, using 15 Shahed-136/131 UAVs. the Air force reported 14 attack UAVs destroyed During the past day, 81 combat clashes took place. In total, the enemy launched 11 missile and 34 air strikes, carried out 62 MLRS attacks Over the past day, the Air Force of the Defense Forces struck 18 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment and 5 anti-aircraft missile systems of the enemy. Also, the forces and means of the air defense of Ukraine destroyed 1x Kh-59 air-launched guided missile and 2x reconnaissance UAVs of the enemy. Units of missile forces hit 6 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, a radar station, 2 artillery pieces, 3 ammunition depots and an enemy command post Airstrikes were carried out: Leonivka, Chervonyi Khutir of Chernihiv Oblast; Synkivka, Kharkiv Oblast; Serebryansk forestry of Luhansk region; Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk Oblast About 100 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions came under artillery fire Khortytsia Joint Operational Force in the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainians repelled 17 enemy attacks Synkivka area of the Kharkiv region, where the enemy unsuccessfully tried to break through the defenses of Ukrainian troops Bakhmut direction, Ukrainians repelled 11 enemy attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka, Donetsk oblast Tavria Joint Operational Force in the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainians continue to restrain the enemy, who does not stop trying to surround Avdiivka. Ukrainian Forces repelled 25 enemy attacks east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, as well as 15 attacks near Severne, Pervomaiske and Nevelske of the Donetsk region Maryinka direction, Ukrainian Forces continue to restrain the enemy in the areas of Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, Donetsk region, where our defenders repelled 4 attacks Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian Forces repelled all enemy attacks in the areas of Robotyne and northwest of Verbovo, Zaporizhzhia oblast Odesa Joint Operational Force in the Kherson direction, Ukrainians continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not stop trying to dislodge our units from their positions. Thus, during the past day, the enemy carried out 17 unsuccessful assault actions, received a worthy rebuff and retreated Ukrainian Forces of Ukraine continue to inflict losses on the occupying forces in manpower and equipment, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line

Today's terrorist attack by the Russians once again demonstrated the significant vulnerability of our energy system. Especially, using the example of what is happening now in Kharkiv and Zaporizhia, I would like to call on the entire expert community, those who make decisions: we must decentralize electricity/heat supply as soon as possible! P.S. I will refer to my blog a year ago with criticism that the year was lost on балачки....https://lnkd.in/d7u9W4eg.

Russia to organise military drills with tactical nuclear weapons. According to certain military experts, “targets are precisely identified on the soil of Ukraine (ie., military personnel from NATO countries and their weapons. First and foremost, the French military personnel). Moreover, “Russia’s General Staff has finalised its plan called preventive military operation that includes using strategic nuclear weapons in case NATO countries dare to send their military to Ukraine. This preventive plan aims to attack “the centres of decision making in Paris, Brussels and London” with nuclear weapons (eg., ICBM) and it has been approved by the president of Russia. Whether Russia is bluffing or not, will be the very question the Intelligence & Security Services in the West will try to answer in the near future…

Military transport of the Russian Defense Ministry's "nuclear" department arrived in Crimea #Military transport of the "#nuclear" department of the #Russian #Defense #Ministry has arrived in #Crimea, writes " Krym.Realii " with reference to reports from local residents. In particular, the #vehicles of the 12th department of the military department were spotted in the #eastern part of the peninsula, including the city of #Kerch. The license plates of the vehicles are marked with code 39, which is used to mark vehicles of the 12th department, the publication points out. The 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense is responsible for the #storage, #operation, and #maintenance of nuclear #weapons. It also includes the Special Control Service, which monitors nuclear tests in other countries. https://lnkd.in/dVtmtNBM

This is the first time that I have seen an M15 mine in Ukraine.   Russian forces found the American-made M15 anti-vehicle mine laid but unfuzed. The M15 is a large metal-bodied mine that was developed in the 1950s and saw service in the Korean War.   It contains 10.3 kg of Composition B explosive (60/40 RDX/TNT with 1% wax added), so can cause significant damage when detonated.   M15s are typically fitted with M603 pressure fuzes or M624 tilt-rod fuzes.   https://lnkd.in/gxc3X879   #ukrainewar #osint #EOD