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With the US election now decided, attention turns to the implementation of President-elect Trump's agenda. The combination of tax cuts and higher spending is expected to see debt levels rise over his term. This note examines trends in and the outlook for US public finances, both from a long-term perspective. It does so in the context of what this could mean for one of the key components of bond yields, the risk (or ‘term’) premium. In doing so it provides a range of estimates for what the potential impact of the US' fiscal trajectory might be on its borrowing costs. The piece is the fifth in a series on the drivers of bond yields with others able to be found here: https://lnkd.in/g9Jx9MEe To receive an alert when the next notes in this series (or any of the others that we do) are published, you can sign up here https://lnkd.in/gVEaDjY.

In this article, the fifth in a series, QTC Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz takes a deep dive into a topical issue, which could impact one of the key components of bond yields, the risk (or ‘term’) premium. That issue is trends in and the outlook for US public finances. Read the full economic research article here ➡️ https://lnkd.in/gTirq2ra #InterestRates

Are you attending the Michigan Government Finance Officers Association 2024 Spring Seminar? If you are, stop by Bryan Derdenger's interactive discussion reflecting on the past year and a half of macroeconomic activity and identifying key economic indicators, giving insight into what is ahead in 2024. #WeAreBaird

What can we learn from a year of market resilience? From defying inflation fears to navigating geopolitical tensions, James Thorne revisits the highs and lows of 2024. Find them in his Market Insights year in review: https://lnkd.in/gMqmfQv5 #marketinsights #yyc #calgary #calgarybusiness #finance #investing101 #crescowealthmanagement #markets #economy #yycliving

In macroeconomic analysis, understanding a country's balance sheet strategy is crucial. In my published article titled, 'Long-term Finance Key to Budget Amnesty,' I explore the challenges of solely relying on internal funding when fiscal space is constrained, the transitory nature of the deposit/funding profile at macro scale, and the potential implications for long-term sustainable economic growth. Although I wrote this years ago, it’s amazing how relevant it remains today. The math becomes even more complex when factoring in multi-currencies; the nuances of local currency in this basket, and the consequent impact on macroeconomic dependencies. I recommended a sectoral approach to drive export-led growth; public-private partnerships to free up fiscal space; taking advantage of resource-endowment and promoting multilateral engagements through the private sector. #SustainableEconomicGrowth #MacroPolicy #ThoughtLeadership

It's not a bad thing to have foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries, here's why. Join Chris and Bryan, financial advisors at Vision Based Planning, as they dive into the topic of foreign ownership of US treasuries. Discover why having foreign owners isn't necessarily a cause for concern and why media interpretations can sometimes miss the mark. Gain insights into the nuances of global economics and financial strategy with our expert analysis. To see the full webinar click here: https://lnkd.in/g-wKrmQS To register for Q3 Economic Update click here:  https://lnkd.in/gqt4Z-VZ

Investors have been favoring the higher-quality segment of the high yield market - BBs in particular. We think that there's an opportunity to overweight the credits that may outperform throughout the credit cycle. Hear insights from Associate Portfolio Manager Christopher Romanelli and more of our experts in the video below, and click here to discover more outlooks: https://lnkd.in/e3t4UKG4 #HighYield #Economy

Insights from the Latest Market Watch Webcast I recently attended the latest Market Watch webcast featuring Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA, and Vincent Juvyns, Global Market Strategist. They provided a comprehensive analysis of the recent election results in the UK and France, and their potential implications for the economy and markets in the short and medium-term. Key learning objectives covered during the webcast included: - Summarising the Election Results: A detailed overview of the outcomes and their immediate effects. - Interpreting Possible Outcomes for Fiscal Policy and the Economy: Exploring how these election results could shape fiscal policy decisions and economic trends. - Discussing Market Implications: Analyzing the potential impacts on various markets and investment strategies. The insights shared were incredibly valuable for understanding the current political landscape and its economic ramifications. A big thank you to Karen Ward and Vincent Juvyns for their expertise and to J.P. Morgan for hosting such an informative session. #MarketWatch #Economics #Investment #Webcast #Learning #Finance #PoliticalEconomy #UK #France #JPMorgan

Here is another update of our popular webinar series of macroeconomic and financial updates, this time given by Swedbank's Economists Carl Nilsson and Emma Paulsson, together with Senior Advisor Olof Manner. The recorded webinar from Monday 15th April is available here (in Swedish). #swedbank #macroeconomics

In this article, the third in a series, QTC Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz seeks to identify what might be behind movements in the building blocks of bond yields. Future notes in the series will provide topical deep dives into specific factors which could influence these components and present long-term projections for bond yields. Read the full economic research article here ➡ https://lnkd.in/g2pHKKpY #InterestRates