Oxcap Analytics’ Post

How do we improve forecast accuracy today? Remove Positive Bias

#Systemschange 101: 1. What bottlenecks lead to poor outcomes in your system of interest? 2. How can those bottlenecks be turned into levers for change? Curious? More here: https://lnkd.in/e42Yq3qw

https://lnkd.in/eEpxW2-B In The Cycle, we question the common narrative that all rate cuts are good for equities. We draw a careful distinction between initial cuts into a growth slowdown, as compared with all rate cuts. We show that following rate cuts into seven slowdowns since 1973, the subsequent return on the S&P500 is -21%. However, if we examine all rate cuts (~25 >100bps since 1971) it is true that investors enjoy double-digit returns, one year down the road. The investment debate is partly around timing, partly knowing what phase of the growth cycle you are in. Honest answer is no-one knows for sure. But we think having a historic framework to think about these things is a good idea. Visit www.oxcapanalytics.com for more detail.

How to exploit the performance dispersion opportunity in the current cycle? What fundamentals best capture the outperformers? Here you can find some interesting insights. https://lnkd.in/dDRYGY9g

Last week was packed with market activity, including key earnings reports, economic data, and a shifting jobs picture. About a third of S&P 500 companies reported their Q3 earnings, with most beating estimates but while high-expectation stocks like the "Magnificent 7" struggled to impress. Meanwhile, job growth stalled, and manufacturing data pointed to a slowdown, hinting at potential economic challenges ahead. With rising treasury yields and mixed signals across sectors, the Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act in its upcoming meeting.

Apple's stock price surged by over 60 times between 2002 and 2012, but fell in 48% of the trading days in that period? What does it tell you about "Buy Right, Sit Tight" strategy that sounds so simple on paper?....here is an interesting video post from us on how to follow through on that simple strategy in the face of constant stream of narratives & headlines that are designed to pull you off the track. Interesting video for the current volatile times. Pls do watch and share!

It is one thing to say, "Buy Right and Sit Tight" but it's a whole different challenge to follow through on that in the face of heightened volatility, especially when there is a growing fear of correction driven by carry trade unwinding and concerns about a potential hard landing. In this video, our fund manager shares key insights on how one can bring this key skill of staying-put without yielding to the trap of timing in and timing out the markets by following our proven four-pronged approach! To know this and more, tune in to our latest edition of video post 👇 Click on the link to learn more details: https://lnkd.in/ghYKgyjT To express your interest, visit: https://lnkd.in/gXAFnaeA #TrustLine #AIFinvestment #PMSinvestment #MarketWisdom #StrategicInvesting #FinancialSuccess #LongTermGrowth #ValueInvesting #InvestmentStrategy #IntrinsicSeries #WealthManagement

How to hack growth: prepare for what's next with predictability and confidence. Dive into the insights: https://okt.to/M0qdK2

The following chart is drawn to scale. Do you agree that something's gotta give?

Beyond Single-Number Forecasting: Embracing Probabilistic Methods Traditional single-number forecasting predicts one specific outcome, much like betting on a cricket team to win a match. This approach works well for predictable items but falls short when faced with variable demand patterns. Probabilistic forecasting, on the other hand, uses advanced algorithms to account for a range of possible outcomes, helping to manage uncertainty and improve decision-making in complex, volatile environments. By considering multiple possibilities, probabilistic forecasting enhances inventory planning, minimizes risk, and improves service levels. This method not only provides more accurate predictions but also enables better decisions for harder-to-forecast products, unlocking competitive advantages. Unlike single-number forecasts that lead to excessive safety stock and higher costs, probabilistic forecasting builds trust in the planning process, making it a smarter choice for modern supply chain management. Here are some relevant hashtags for your post on probabilistic forecasting: #ProbabilisticForecasting #SupplyChainPlanning #InventoryManagement #DemandForecasting #AdvancedAnalytics #SupplyChainInnovation #RiskManagement #ForecastAccuracy #DataDrivenDecisions #SupplyChainOptimization #PlanningForUncertainty #DigitalTransformation #InventoryOptimization https://lnkd.in/g_chiDUf