Oxford Economics Australia ’s Post

Australia's 2035 emissions target As the year draws to a close we’ve been thinking about ‘what comes next’. Rather than spending more time on the nuclear debate, we've taken a wider view to focus on Australia's 2035 emission reduction target. This target will shape our decarbonisation journey as we progress beyond a green grid and start to meaningfully decarbonise the transport and industrial sectors. That's also why it's so hard to set - and will be even harder to achieve. Emily Dabbs and my analysis suggests that Australia can reduce it's emissions by 50-55% by 2035 if we continue our current policy trajectory. That's well short of the early indications shared by the government targeting 65-75% reductions. There's time for this shortfall to be recovered - but it'll require even greater prioritisation of the climate than what we've seen to date. https://lnkd.in/gmJErpjY

Is there a clearer illustration that ditching wind and solar and relying only on coal, fossil gas and nuclear power, as these folks are proposing, means also having to completely give up on even extremely weak and achievable climate goals? https://lnkd.in/dKrp7r37

Number 4: "#Nuclear is not really back. Some media outlets went to great lengths this week to claim that nuclear energy was at the centre of Cop29 talks, and Bowen had been embarrassed by Australia not signing up to a UK-US civil nuclear deal. Take it from a reporter on the ground: this has no basis in fact. The UK made a mistake by listing on a press release Australia and another nine countries that it said it expected would sign up to a Generation IV International Forum on nuclear. That sentence were quickly removed once it was pointed out that no one had checked and it wasn’t true. Instead, Australia will continue as an observer, as it was in the forum’s previous iteration. The slip-up had no obvious impact on the relationship between the countries – Bowen and his UK counterpart, Ed Miliband, held an event to sign a renewable energy agreement shortly after the story broke. And nuclear has been barely visible as an issue at the talks. Thirty-one countries have signed up to a side pledge to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050, with six new countries joining at Cop29. But the global focus is renewable energy. Cop28 agreed global investment in renewables needs to be tripled by 2030, and the bulk of the non-fossil energy investment is going that way. Only one country that signed the pledge to triple nuclear, Slovakia, has started work on planning a new plant in the past year. And those plants take about 20 years to build. #StopSizewellC https://lnkd.in/ezM84nMu

No real surprise the Climate Change Committee (CCC), have expressed concerns that the UK could miss its future targets, owing to "worryingly slow" recent progress. And in May 2024 the High Court ruled for the second time in two years that the government would have to redraft its net zero strategy because its existing plan did not provide enough detail about how future targets could be met. It plans to increase offshore wind capacity five-fold by 2030, increase solar power capacity five-fold by 2035, and expand nuclear power. The government pledged that all of the UK's electricity would come from low carbon sources by 2035. However, reports by the CCC, the National Audit Office and a cross-party group of MPs have warned that the UK risks missing its 2035 target without clearer planning and much faster action. There will be less nuclear on the system by 2035 than we have today, additional renewable generation needs adequate storage and/or gas to firm it up, with a transmission system capable of supporting it. Lack of planning is definitely one of the biggest obstacles to achieving these future targets and reminds me of my Naval 7 P's, Prior Preparation and Planning Prevents P*** Poor Performance. #energy #powergeneration #netzero

The world had to listen to the rather nasal voice of an #Arsenal fan in Baku at #COP29. You can't help but feel Keir is swimming against the tide at the moment. In fact you sort of feel he is swimming in a pool of his own given the lack of many of the G7 world leaders to attend the conference and the loudly voiced intentions on energy supply dominance of a #NewTrump administration (https://lnkd.in/gpahkCUM). However, curiously on the same day (whether by design or coincidence), #GreatBritishNuclear announced it had opened discussions with shortlisted UK SMR technology providers. Given UK’s own nuclear deterrent, it’s probably one area of joined-up thinking in government – subsidize your own nuclear deterrence program while rolling out a proven military technology still unproven on #CiviStreet (https://lnkd.in/gw7BVi-a). Great if you can export it in a #BrexitWorld! With this Labour government seemingly nailing a death sign to the long-term viability for #UKNorthSea O&G in the budget, UK energy policy has officially become another experiment for the developed world. Like Germany’s Energiewende and California’s integrated energy policy, we do not know where it will end up. #FingersCrossed / #CloseYourEyes. In the EIA’s report on Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources 2022, LCOE costs for advanced nuclear (including both small and large nuclear reactors) don't look too different from the costs of nuclear of old. At around $88/MWh it's similar to other nuclear with low variable/operating costs and sky-high capital costs. This is the 2nd most expensive of dispatchable, non-resource-constrained technologies in the US. A huge amount is riding on whether technology providers/manufacturers can bring this capital cost down through planning reform, productivity improvements and an economy of scale in the manufacturing processes. Again, a gamble. At least it’s #HomeGrown with Rolls-Royce (so long as #Red #EdMiliband doesn't opt for foreign, perhaps cheaper tech). They will need to go big or go home to bring cost efficiencies in for both military and civilian use, I presume paid for, at least initially, by big subsidies and more #taxes (or #debt!). Given this high-risk strategy that #1stGearKeir seems to have embarked upon, by driving North Sea gas back under the sea from whence it came and pinning hopes on resource-constrained tech + nascent nuclear tech, he’s going to have to play international politics very well in a volatile world. I can’t see EU countries bridging this #EnergyDeficit for the UK given the current state of play…it will be LNG imports from the #Permian #theMarcellus and our partners in the #MiddleEast (Qatar/Saudi/UAE).

Low cost nuclear power can enable the rise of poor nations without the rise of CO2-emitting coal and LNG burning. https://lnkd.in/eE9Q2SuM

The inadequacy and failure of the Australian Labor government’s 2030 carbon emissions reductions targets have been highlighted by Liberal-National Coalition proposals to scrap them, and yet supposedly reach net-zero by 2050 by building nuclear power stations instead. Labor’s 2022 Climate Change Bill set a target of just a 43 percent reduction (relative to a 2005 baseline) of Australian greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The legislation was backed by the Greens as well as the Teal independent members of parliament, despite this target bearing no relationship whatsoever to the scientifically required emission cuts necessary to halt rapid climate change and the developing ecological catastrophes. https://lnkd.in/dnzCTr5Q

Many governments and industries are promoting future technology developments such as nuclear power, green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage that will take decades to implement as solutions. These approaches will allow cumulative emissions to continue to grow, driving higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. We need to focus attention on short-term action. Today’s emissions will drive heating for many years.

Climate Action -- Stale Date is 2026 No new fossil gas connections, TORONTO WE CAN DO THIS! All oil & gas subsidies stop now. Open the provincial wholesale electricity markets to firmed wind and solar power. Design the markets to SUPPORT renewable power. 2026 stop date for NEW combustion cars and furnaces. (we can keep repairing the OLD gassers) Tax rebates for electric cars and heat pumps. Upgraded transmission WITHOUT red tape (High Voltage DC transmission can be underground). And talking of red tape, remove it for wind and solar power. End support for the nonsense solutions proposed by the fossil fuel industry: carbon capture, hydrogen as a FUEL, and NEW nuclear power (nuclear can't come online for 1.5 decades --- FAR too late --- this is EXACTLY what the fossil industry wants: delay). Clean energy is cheaper than fossil fuel, with the added health benefit of clean air. https://lnkd.in/gM8JiBJk