Hubris, thy name is Posidonia
‘This time, it’s different’ is one of those phrases that should be heavily regulated.
Deploying it amid the febrile atmosphere of a Greek shipping ordering binge, where owners are jumping around excitedly with their bulging pockets on fire, is at best inadvisable.
Celebrating the geopolitical carnage, which has unexpectedly supercharged earnings, is not a good look, no matter how many Australian pop princesses you fly in on your private jet to help the party along.
Talking up a golden age of shipping profitability while talking down the decarbonisation goals that are now deemed unachievable, might prompt onlookers to question whether the industry has somewhat misjudged the mood.
Of course, there are valid counters to all of the above.
It is different to the ordering boom that preceded the last financial crash — the orderbook today is less than 50% of what it was in 2008. So far.
Earnings are up across the board, defying logic and economic gravity in some cases. There is no denying strong outlooks are fuelling optimism.
And yet the lingering suspicion that we have seen all this before and will see it again lingers heavily over Athens for those who have been to enough Posidonias to hum along to a familiar tune.
The unpredictable confluence of geopolitical circumstance that led to this bonanza was not of shipping’s making and the circumstances that will inevitably unravel it are equally unknowable.
Those preaching counter-cyclical bravery and foresight today could easily be cursing the black swan that lands its droppings on them from a great height a year or two down the line.
Of course, such events are said to foretell fortune, but how many of them will be feeling lucky, lucky, lucky when that happens?
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