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Indian Economy, Trump and Much Ado About US Fed RatesNew Delhi , November 11: Trump’s resounding win did not just add US$12 billion to Elon Musk and caused a broader rally across the US equity markets. One may justify the optimism due to the expected policy changes in stocks, but the subject that is less talked about is the rates. US government bonds dropped dramatically on the expectation of higher rates and for longer.
For various reasons well known to investors, the US dollar plays an important role in global economics. It is not just the world’s reserve currency; it is also the denominator for the price of global assets and the provision of international services. From the valuation of the coal trade between South Africa and Germany to the pricing of offshore IT consulting services between Kenya and India, deals are struck primarily in US dollars. Therefore, the impact of Fed rates is profound and global, but it seems particularly pronounced in India.
The recent debates on Fed rate cuts seem to consume Indian investors and economic strategists. Shockingly, US economists do not seem to give much importance to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rate cuts. This note is my evaluation of whether US dollar interest rates continue to deserve the same VIP treatment as they have done historically. In my view, in the current context, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy should be afforded much less significance, and any material reaction to US rate cuts by the Indian capital markets could be misplaced and perhaps result in an opportunity for investors.
Bhumi Chaudhary of Astra Asset Management UK Limited shares here insight here:
What Impact does the central bank’s monetary policy have on capital markets?
Borrowing costs, corporate profitability and consumer confidence and behavior
First, to understand the impact, we should understand how the Central Bank’s policies, particularly the spot rate target, impact the economy. Although there are others, for the purpose of this discussion, I’ll focus on the following key factors:
Interbank borrowing rate: For any large economy with several established banks, the interbank borrowing rate represents the cost of liquidity in the market. It is the main driver against which financing costs are benchmarked. Yields on government bonds and Treasury bills are intricately determined by this rate, and it generally sets the tone for short
Chairman Public Relations Society| Founder at PR Professionals| Crisis Communication| Public Affairs| Govt. Relations|Growth & Strategy| Gen Secy Nirbhaya Jyoti Trust| Advisor Kalam Centre
1moCompletely with you Paritosh Ladhani Ji. This is the best time for the young entrepreneurs to ride the wave.