Ryan Patel’s Post

According to the jobs report out today, the US unemployment rate saw a small drop from 3.9% in February to 3.8% in March. There were also more jobs added than expected — 303,000 compared to a forecast of 212,000. Another highlight from today’s report: the labor force participation rate ticked up to 62.7% after sitting at 62.5% for a few months. Plus, the news release said the leisure and hospitality industry “has returned to its pre-pandemic February 2020 level.” “We do see some measures that have tightness that are related to the labor market, like the quits rate has ticked down,” Nick Bunker, the economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider. “There's a way for the labor market to continue to grow and be strong and not add fuel to the inflationary fire. And I think we're seeing many signs of that in this report." Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, said the latest jobs report is "the Fed's holy grail: strong job market with non-inflationary growth." Read more at the story below. Follow Business Insider for more stories. #jobs #unemployment #jobgrowth #labormarket

Surprise! 2024 Starts off with a Bang! 🎉 Surpassing all expectations, the January jobs report reveals a staggering 353,000 job gains and upward revisions for November and December. 📈 Additionally, various industries are experiencing significant job growth, but keeping an eye on inflation and wage growth spikes is crucial! 💼 Rising interest rates are also shaking up the housing market. Stay ahead of the curve and get to know Mallory Vachon, PhD, as she provides invaluable labor market insights. Read the ERE article here: https://hubs.li/Q02lKyd80 #EconomicUpdate #JobMarketTrends #LaborMarket #Jobs

July Job Market Update: Slow Growth Signals Upcoming Recession In July, the U.S. job market witnessed a significant slowdown despite expectations. Job growth added only 114,000 nonfarm jobs, well below the expected 185,000. This downturn from the previous month's 179,000 jobs reflects a concerning trend. Moreover, the unemployment rate surged to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. Earnings for workers also faced a setback, with average hourly earnings seeing a mere 0.2% rise for the month and a 3.6% increase from the previous year, both below predictions. This unexpected turn of events negatively impacted investor sentiment, leading to a decline in stock market futures and Treasury yields. Healthcare emerged as the top job creator, generating 55,000 new jobs, closely followed by construction, government, and transportation. However, the information services sector suffered a loss of 20,000 jobs. The household survey, an alternative employment measure, reported even weaker growth, adding just 67,000 jobs and resulting in a surge of 352,000 in the number of unemployed individuals. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring this data amid conflicting signals about the economy. Although there have been indications of a potential interest rate cut in September, recent economic data has raised concerns about a possible recession. With the three-month average unemployment rate reaching 4.13%, according to the Sahm Rule, the likelihood of a recession is a pressing concern. Despite these challenges, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains optimistic about the economy, and market expectations are leaning towards an anticipated rate cut in the upcoming Fed meetings. As the job market cools, the Fed is preparing to take action to maintain stability. # Thank you Giulia Rossi for your submission!

Job growth slowed in April with unemployment ticking up to 3.9%. Job openings are down and fewer employees are leaving their jobs. There is still growth in certain sectors like healthcare. Hospitality and retail is flat after significant job growth while tech remains down. https://lnkd.in/gjpt9W6V

" US job growth surged in November, adding 227,000 jobs" By Alicia Wallace, CNN | CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report Friday December 6, 2024 CNN Business [ IA prepared ] TAKEAWAYS: ✅ Job Growth Rebound:   - November added 227,000 jobs, recovering from October’s weak numbers caused by hurricanes and worker strikes.   - October initially reported 12,000 jobs, later adjusted to 36,000—the lowest since 2020. ✅ Labor Market Trends:   - The job market remains steady but is slowing down.   - Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, with people unemployed for an average of 23.7 weeks, the longest since April 2022. ✅ Mixed Outcomes:  - If you have a job, things are generally good, but it’s harder for unemployed individuals to find work. - Economists describe this as a "K-shaped" labor market, where outcomes vary widely. ✅ Industry Highlights:   - Growth was strongest in health care, government, and leisure and hospitality.   - Manufacturing added 26,000 jobs, boosted by striking workers returning. - Retail lost 28,000 jobs, likely due to seasonal timing adjustments. ✅ Wages and Pay: - Wages grew 0.4% in November, holding steady at 4% annual growth. - Pay increases are helping people adjust to higher costs from inflation. ✅ Longer-Term Trends:  - The US has added jobs for 47 consecutive months, the third-longest streak in history. Monthly job growth in 2024 has averaged **180,363 jobs**, slower than post-pandemic but similar to 2010-2019 levels. ✅ Federal Reserve Actions:  - Interest rates have been cut twice recently to help the economy. - Economists believe rate cuts may encourage hiring, but more reductions might be needed. ✅ Potential Future Changes:  - Former President Trump’s return to office in 2025 could impact the labor market with planned policies like higher tariffs and reduced federal spending, potentially leading to layoffs. - Economists emphasize the importance of policymakers keeping the labor market stable during transitions. https://lnkd.in/gnr_c3Ri

OCTOBER JOBS REPORT 📉 U.S. job growth slowed sharply in October, adding just 12,000 positions, far below economists' expectations of 113,000. This is the lowest job growth since December 2020. Despite the slow growth, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, in line with predictions. Job creation numbers for August and September were also revised downward by a combined 112,000 jobs, indicating a softer trend than initially reported. Private sector payrolls contracted by 28,000, missing forecasts for a 90,000 rise, with the manufacturing sector seeing a significant 46,000 job loss, largely due to strike activity at Boeing. Construction added 8,000 jobs, below its recent monthly average, while healthcare remained a bright spot, adding 52,300 positions. Government employment rose by 40,000, consistent with past gains. Average hourly earnings grew by 0.4%, reaching $35.46, marking a 4% increase over the last year. However, labor force participation dipped slightly to 62.6%. The report reflects the impact of Hurricanes Milton and Helene in the Southeast, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted it couldn't quantify these events’ direct effects. Bill Adams, Comerica Bank’s chief economist, highlighted that these shocks make it hard to determine whether job market conditions are shifting, though recent downward revisions suggest cooling prior to October. This data arrives ahead of next week's Federal Reserve Board meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is anticipated, amid signs of a gradually slowing labor market. This surely will have an impact at polls come Tuesday…

Last month’s job growth marked an increase from a revised gain of 229,000 jobs in January. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked up two-tenths of a point in February to a still-low 3.9%. Though that marks the highest rate in two years, it was the 25th straight month in which joblessness has remained below 4%.

I think a lot of people were caught off guard by the weakness in the July jobs report which came out yesterday. Quite frankly, I was not- there have been clear signs for a while now that the labor market is deteriorating. And that does not mean one month of data- a preliminary estimate subject to revisions- is enough to say the employment situation is catastrophic on its own. Again, it's just one month, but the overall trend clearly shows softening. Some notables: - the unemployment rate came in at 4.3% vs consensus estimates of 4.1% (seasonally adjusted- household survey) - month over month nonfarm job gains were 114k vs consensus of 175K (seasonally adjusted- establishment survey) I've said it once and I'll say it again- the unemployment rate is by definition a lagging indicator, and is highly contingent on labor force flows which always cause it to increase non linearly late cycle. Absent an understanding of how it's calculated and what influences labor force flows, the unemployment rate in isolation tells you basically nothing. It's much more productive to simply analyze the year over year change in the stock of jobs (by industry) to see where growth is slowing (if at all). And if you're going to look at the unemployment rate, at least analyze its components. The visual below showing monthly data spanning from January 1970 to July 2024 does just that: - the top 2 charts are from the Establishment survey showing the stock & Y/Y change of jobs by industry over time. - the bottom 2 charts are configured identically (level and Y/Y change), but instead show the unemployment rate components, which comes from the Household survey My key takeaways: - growth in Private Education & Health Services (which is primarily healthcare) as well as Government jobs have been masking weakness in the labor market for quite some time now. The quality of job growth has been poor at best because there isn't broad participation across all industries. - unemployment components suggest that Job losers not on layoff (i.e. permanent job losers) is starting to materially increase which is a textbook recessionary signal. To be clear, Job losers on layoff are individuals who are temporarily out of work, but expect to be hired back. That's a long winded way of saying the unemployment rate will move higher from here because layoffs are picking up. At the end of the day, the real problem we have is mainstream media narrative spin and economic group think that discourages adequate transparency on issues like the labor market. Case in point- I've heard several well respected analysts blame hurricane Beryl for the outsized spike in the unemployment rate when there is objectively not a single data point that supports that position. All of that information is public and free! The economic cycle is not dead- hopefully this visual helps cut through the noise. #jobs #jobsmarket #labor #economy

𝐉𝐨𝐛 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐬 2024 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐠 The job market is kickstarting the year with unparalleled momentum, as U. S. employers have added an incredible 353,000 jobs in January alone, smashing earlier forecasts. Recent revisions also paint a picture of an even more robust job growth in the previous year. This surge points towards a burgeoning economy with ample opportunities, suggesting that businesses are in high gear and ready to tackle this year's challenges. https://lnkd.in/d2k_73J7