Peter K. Lee’s Post

Very happy to contribute an Australian perspective on the potential value and utility of 🇦🇺 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 trilateral cooperation for the Asan Forum. To summarise my discussion: Australia's enthusiasm for this emerging grouping is "accompanied by a clear-eyed assessment that such a grouping will need to prioritize function over form and to set realistic near-term objectives in order to deliver tangible value for all three countries. To avoid trilateralism for its own sake, Australia would prefer for this new grouping to focus initially on prioritizing the coordination and harmonization of each country’s existing regional order-building initiatives, rather than prematurely creating new initiatives. Rather than prioritizing defence cooperation—a naturally attractive but ultimately limited vector for valuable trilateral engagement—they ought to do so by focusing on regional capacity-building and development assistance, areas where the three countries’ shared interests and comparative strengths are most engaged."

New Post for Peninsula Dispatch 🚨 After securing victories in the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, it appears increasingly likely that former US President Donald Trump will be chosen as the Republican Party's nominee for the presidency. He may even be able to secure a second term in office. If Trump does decide to once again prioritize the Korean issue as president, what would this mean for the rapidly worsening state of inter-Korean relations? Would a second Trump presidency help defuse tensions on the Peninsula or further aggravate the situation? In this article, I include part of one chapter of my PhD dissertation which looked specifically at what roles the US played in inter-Korean relations under the Trump presidency. While it's challenging to predict the specific policy direction a potential second Trump administration would take, valuable insights can be gained by looking back at what policies his government adopted toward the Korean Peninsula in his first term and how these affected North-South ties. https://lnkd.in/gPzHjidN

I appreciate getting the frequent announcements from the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, and thank their staff who get the messages out. (Thanks, Allison Aprahamian and William P. for all the announcements.) The committee's announcements - like many of those coming from other U.S. Congressional committees - are often noteworthy and important to contemplate, as is this one out today this week: "Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party alongside U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), U.S. Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE), and Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) wrote to Washington D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, calling on her administration to establish sister city ties with Taipei, Taiwan.....'We write to urge you and your administration to establish sister city ties with Taipei. Congress, and the city of Washington, DC, have long played a leading role in U.S.-Taiwan relations, and the greater Washington metropolitan area is home to one of the largest Taiwanese American populations in the country.'” Good to see such a sister-city move is being urged, and the arguments for doing so are worthy of all Americans' as well as the mayor's support. Of course, this is not effectively calling for dual recognition of both China and Taiwan despite that Taiwan's capital is the focus here. If so, however, it would be an important step in challenging Beijing's desired control over Taiwan and its relations with the world via the Chinese Communist Party's "One China Principle" that it follows, instead of any "One China Policy." That's also not calling for the U.S. or any nation to end relations with one government on one side of the Taiwan Strait and switch official diplomatic relations to the one on the other side of it. Such a binary choice was the one taken by many nations starting from the United Nation's resolution to expel Taiwan in 1971, and regrettably it continues to be relied upon to supposedly keep the peace in the Taiwan. The increasingly frequent, larger and closer Chinese PLA military incursions around all of us here in Taiwan would indicate that such adherence to the policy demanded by Beijing is not as effective in keeping the peace as it once was. If Washington, DC can find a way to build such relations with the city of Taipei as it already has with Beijing, then perhaps the UN can find a way to permit all nations to simulataneously recognize both sides of the Taiwan Strait, as it permits them to do so with the societies on both sides of the DMZ on the Korean Peninsula. It should be pointed out that one side there - North Korea - creates more tensions for the world in one day with its missile launches than Taiwan creates chips for the world in a year, via Taiwan's peaceful society that respects human rights. Surely that is worthy of more than simple sister-city relations. https://lnkd.in/gNHN4HR6

🔍 Explore the complexities of U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a captivating discussion featuring Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of German Marshall Fund of the United States, Indo-Pacific Program, and our Senior Associate. 🌍 In partnership with University of Washington Taiwan Studies Program, the conversation addresses the challenges posed by China, from military pressure to gray-zone tactics. American policymakers' crucial role takes center stage. Watch the full video for expert insights: https://lnkd.in/gEFf-uNd #Geopolitics #USChinaRelations #pacificforum #GMF #TaiwanSecurity

Just re-read Charles S. Maier's 2021 thoughts on the first Trump administration: "The Trump 'Legacy' for American Foreign Policy": https://lnkd.in/edVfp9CA "I believe it is appropriate to defend values as well as interests, although to what degree military force should be engaged has to be weighed case by case. There is a case for speaking loudly as well as wielding a big stick. Speaking truth to power is a more appealing way of putting it. I would submit it is the best choice for dealing with China even while the United States reengages with regional Asian and European allies. Human rights cannot be the only guideline for policy but neither can acceptance of the _fait accompli_. Public opinion loves to find a suitable 'doctrine' for foreign policy – the Monroe Doctrine, the Truman Doctrine, the Nixon Doctrine, etc. – but case-by-case wisdom is probably more useful and will certainly be more necessary. Ironically, the Trump presidency may have done one indirect public service through all its brutal disruptions if it compels a rethinking of what foreign policy the American imperial republic can and should defend...."

As the NATO alliance marks 75 years, what will be the most important issue for the alliance over the next 75 years? Enter your idea to CEPA's policy pitching competition and win prizes today! #competition #policy #pitch

Currently there is a debate about the question whether Donald Trump could end the US membership in NATO should he be elected for another term. Some background on the domestic and international legal requirements and the political dynamics at play with respect to US participation in multilateral treaties can be found in my book. https://lnkd.in/dW9WCGAK

My latest essay in Foreign Policy is a book review of two excellent volumes on South Korea and the US-ROK alliance, written by Ramon Pacheco Pardo and Scott Snyder. Although I disagree with Pardo's argument that South Korea has a grand strategy, his book is a fantastic survey of South Korean politics and strategic debates since its transition to democracy in 1988. Snyder discusses how domestic politics in the United States and South Korea inform and challenge the long-term viability of their security alliance. #strategy #southkorea #unitedstates #alliance   https://lnkd.in/drWARrB5

In a 🆕 Red Cell, Distinguished Fellows Robert Manning and Mathew J. Burrows reflect on the Biden administration's foreign policy achievements while forecasting their legacy in the shadow of a second Trump administration. Read the full memo below ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/eekZfTBb

In a 🆕 Red Cell, Distinguished Fellows Robert Manning and Mathew Burrows reflect on the Biden administration's foreign policy achievements while forecasting their legacy in the shadow of a second Trump administration. Read the full memo below ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/eekZfTBb