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The McClellan Oscillator (MO) is a tool which analyses the difference between the number of stocks advancing and declining on a stock exchange, such as the NYSE or ASX (source: McClellan Financial, 2024). Put simply, it measures the number of stocks going up or down at any one time. The MO posits that a change of 100 points or more could indicate a strong reversal is coming (source: McClellan Financial, 2024). Since May 2024, the MO went from negative 100 to positive 50 following the April 2024 drawdown and subsequent reversal when you apply the tool against the S&P500. This is a rare occurrence. If history repeats, the recent advancements in equity markets has a high probability of reversing any time from now to 60 days post the MO exceeding 100 points (see: 2002, 2008, amongst others) (source, GOT, 2024). Indeed, tools and models are not perfect though will history repeat this time, too? Follow me for daily short financial updates.

After slice-dicing the data in my Total US Market Model, I select $JPM, $DPZ, and $ASML as my candidates for earning speculation by the 18th after cross-checking DOW30, S&P500, and NASDAQ100. This is technical blending with slight fundamentals. The model also contains a speculative sector, but I have never bet earnings on those stocks because earnings are irrelevant to them.

Get an instant evaluation of a stock along 3 parameters - Growth, Quality and Valuation using our new Stock Ranking tool : https://lnkd.in/gq56vtN

Starting conditions matter when forecasting asset class returns. Something to consider with the Nasdaq hitting 20,000. When valuations are high like they are today, subsequent 10-year returns have been low. 📉 When valuations are cheap, subsequent 10-year returns have been high. 📈 We walk through some examples in the video below. 📺 Reversion to the mean has not gone away despite the U.S. stock market’s 12.7% return over the past decade through November 30, 2024. U.S. Growth has done even better with 16% annualized return 4% points of that above-average return is because investors are paying more for stocks today than they were ten years ago. Part of the revaluation is because there is more passive indexing with indiscriminate buyers. Passive indexing leads to higher valuations. Periods of high returns and high earnings growth are inevitably followed by lower returns and lower earnings growth. An exceptional 15-year stretch of U.S. outperformance hasn’t changed that. Now is a good time to consider rebalancing from U.S. growth to areas that have lagged. Will you be rebalancing away form growth? Note: Here is the Rob Arnott article referenced in the video: https://lnkd.in/gjpttrSU #LITrendingTopics #NASDAQ #Stockmarket #VTI #SPY #QQQ

Two Timely Insights from Trivariate Research, L.P.: - Do You Worry About Stocks At 50x Earnings?: We recently highlighted that stocks trading above 50x forward earnings for the first time in 3+ years tend to become increasingly vulnerable. At the end of November, we flagged CTAS as a new entrant to this category—and today, the stock is down 11% following its earnings report. - We Will See More Spin-Offs In 2025: Last week, we discussed the potential impact of spin-offs. Today, FDX announced a spin-off, and the stock is up over 9% in response. Looking for research-backed investment ideas? Contact us at sales@trivariateresearch.com

Owning only the S&P 500 is not "diversification". Sure, you own 500 different stocks in a single fund, so you're diversified within the sections of the stock market covered by the S&P, but not beyond that! You also need to own other sections of the stock market, such as small and international stocks. Historically, these different areas have outperformed each other in very long-term cycles. Owning them all will produce more consistent returns over time and reduce the risk of underperforming during a cycle where a single index is producing poor returns.

FOLLOW THE TREND The trend of stock prices remains higher and many securities firms have raised their price targets for this year- some (Evercore for example) raising their price target 10% higher from present levels. This should not be surprising for most as the October 2023 lows represented a definite change in trend higher for stock prices. While past results are not indicative of future results, two articles last week pointed out that it pays to stick with the trend: . Ryan Detrick, CMT: "Can this rally continue? Be aware that July has been up 9 years in a row for the S&P 500. Over the past decade? Higher 90% of the time and up 3.1% on average." . Bloomberg News: " Since 1980, the S&P 500 has never peaked in June." Long term stock investors especially those in 401(k) plans with time until their retirement-stick with the long term trend even though a "correction" in prices of 5%-10% is long overdue. Shorter term investors: "The trend is your friend" (Alan Shaw, Chief Market Technician Smith Barney. 1983) until a decline reaches your level of risk or your time horizon changes.

As Bespoke Investment Group points out, the 2Q was down aside from a handful of mega-cap stocks. The graphic below is another way to show how narrow the past 3 years have been. The average S&P 500 stock has gained 8.8% over the past 3 years vs. the historical norm of a 33.8% gain over any rolling 3-year period. #marketcommentary #secondquarter #vinyeardglobaladvisors

Market Update: Huge Profits for Nasdaq & YINN Options Traders – Correction Coming? Market Overview: As of Friday, November 8, 2024, U.S. stock markets are exhibiting positive momentum: * Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Experiencing significant gains, reflecting investor confidence in blue-chip stocks. * S&P 100: Showing robust performance, indicating strength among the largest U.S. companies. * Nasdaq Composite: Recording modest increases, with technology and growth stocks contributing to the uptick. Options Trading Highlights: Congratulations to our options traders who achieved substantial profits: * Nasdaq ETF Options: Profits ranging from 500% to 1,000%, demonstrating effective strategies in a rising market. * YINN Options: Gains between 200% and 300%, capitalizing on leveraged exposure to Chinese equities. Current Positioning: We have exited our options trades for the day, anticipating a potential market correction by the close. Recommendations for Stock Investors: * Profit-Taking: Consider realizing gains on high-performing Nasdaq stocks to lock in profits. * Covered Calls: Implement covered call strategies to generate additional income and provide a buffer against potential declines. Outlook: We will continue to analyze market trends and plan to offer specific industry and stock recommendations early next week. Thank you for your attention and continued participation.

For small cap stocks, having a market maker on their stock is crucial for several reasons. Firstly, market makers provide much-needed liquidity to these stocks, making it easier for investors to buy and sell shares without incurring significant transaction costs. This increased liquidity can attract more investors to the stock, thereby potentially boosting its price and market valuation. Secondly, market makers help reduce price volatility in small cap stocks. By continuously providing bid and ask prices, market makers stabilize the price of the stock and prevent large price swings that can deter investors. This stability is particularly important for small cap companies, as they often lack the investor base and market coverage enjoyed by larger firms. Are you ready to take your small cap stock to the next level? Contact us at https://lnkd.in/g9fhkuss #TradingReports #Stock #SmallCapCompany #ConsultingService #Investors #Reports #Trades #Liquidity #RetailTrading #BlockTrading #MarketMaking #SmallCapStocks