RavenVolt Inc, An ABM Company’s Post

https://lnkd.in/eCZ5fW8B A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today (8 October) if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula this evening. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 knots from TAFB, with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and 165 mph (145 knots). Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with maximum winds estimated to be 165 mph (145 knots). Another Air Force mission is entering Milton as we speak. Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term 12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 knots). Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw model fields think the hurricane was centered at 18:00 UTC, and this has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours (around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60 nautical miles, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday. Milton is expected to maintain Forecaster Berg. Advisory Number 15. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Evacuations are underway in the Tampa Bay area and other parts of the Florida Gulf Coast as Category 4 Hurricane Milton rapidly intensifies and is forecast to make landfall midweek. The storm poses a dire scenario of a direct hit on Tampa Bay from the west-southwest, which would push an unprecedented 8-to-12-foot storm surge into the Bay and other locations along and to the south of where the eye crosses the coast. Hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued along the state's west coast. For comparison, the peak surge in Tampa Bay during Hurricane Helene was in the range of 4 to 8 feet. It proved extremely damaging and raised awareness about the city's overall surge risk exposure. A storm track just to the south of Tampa would spare the city from the worst surge impacts but put other heavily populated areas at greater risk. The storm started Monday with 100mph maximum sustained winds, and during a NOAA hurricane hunter flight, winds increased to a whopping 150mph by 9:05 am ET. This puts Category 5 intensity in a far more likely range than previous forecasts and demonstrates how fast these storms can take off. Florida is already seeing heavy rain unrelated to the hurricane, which will raise the risk of flooding once Milton arrives. The NHC is calling for a total amount of rainfall that may range from 5 to 10 inches across the state, with up to 15 inches in some areas. The urban flood risk includes Miami and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Orlando. The intrigue: Hurricane Milton comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene hit the Big Bend region of Florida, sending a damaging storm surge into Tampa Bay and other parts of the state's northern and central Gulf Coast. The federal and state governments may be stretched in responding so quickly to another destructive storm, particularly one that could knock out power to millions and flood thousands of homes and businesses. According to the NHC, Milton is forecast to continue to rapidly intensify Monday. The storm intensified by 90 mph in 24 hours, which is extremely rare. The current forecast peaks Hurricane Milton as a 145 mph Category 4 storm, though Category 5 is possible for a short time. The storm is forecast to encounter a more hostile environment as it nears Florida, leading to some weakening. Its wind field and rains may expand near landfall to become a larger storm with more widespread impacts.

Helene Accelerating, Forecast to Bring Catastrophic Storm Surge and Winds to the Northeastern Gulf Tonight Hurricane warnings extend inland as far north as Macon, Georgia, with a considerable, life-threatening flood threat into the southern Appalachians through Friday Michael Lowry Sep 26 Hurricane Helene approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Thursday morning. Credit: Colorado State University/CIRA Helene steadily strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane early Thursday morning and is poised to strike the northeastern Gulf coast tonight as a major hurricane, bringing catastrophic winds and storm surge into Florida’s Big Bend from east of Apalachicola to Florida’s Nature Coast, centered on Apalachee Bay. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting up to 20 feet of life-threatening storm surge, one of the most dire storm surge forecasts you can expect to see from NHC. The most at-risk coastal communities for catastrophic storm surge flooding include St. George Island, Alligator Point, and St. Marks eastward to Keaton Beach, Steinhatchee, Suwannee, and Cedar Key. Because Helene is so large, with its strongest winds on its eastern side, a wide stretch of Florida’s Gulf Coast will see significant coastal flooding, including into Tampa Bay where up to 5 to 8 feet of coastal inundation is possible for low-lying communities. Coastal tide gauges were already approaching moderate flood stage along the coast of southwest Florida on Thursday morning as Helene’s center churned nearly 300 miles offshore, a testament to the storm’s power. Extreme winds and flooding across the southeast U.S. Helene is a notably larger hurricane than recent storms into the Big Bend and the breadth of its tropical storm winds (winds 39 mph or higher) stretches nearly 500 miles across, more than half the width of the entire Gulf of Mexico. By Thursday afternoon, nearly the entire Florida peninsula will be experiencing tropical storm winds from Helene’s massive circulation. Conditions will deteriorate quickly in north Florida by late Thursday afternoon and evening, with hurricane conditions expected across west-central Florida and the eastern Florida panhandle tonight. On the current forecast track, the core of Hurricane Helene – with its worst winds and considerable, widespread impacts – is expected to move near or over the state capital in Tallahassee by the midnight hours. Because the hurricane will be accelerating so quickly, destructive wind gusts are expected to be stronger than usual across inland areas. A critical 12 hours ahead Helene steadily strengthened overnight but as of Thursday morning hadn’t yet rapidly intensified. That said, it is moving into the most conducive environment for strengthening that it’ll encounter, including squarely over the notorious Gulf of Mexico loop current with a nearby warm “eddy,” a pocket of unusually deep, warm water.

Category Four hurricane HELENE close to Florida landfall. Storm Watch Thursday 26 September 2024 Stay informed and be prepared. From west to east: Hurricane HELENE is now 260 miles west of Tampa headed slightly east of north at 26 knots. The glass is still falling, and rapid intensification has produced a viable eyewall in a robust convection column. Landfall is now expected somewhere south of Tallahassee tonight as a vast and powerful storm with a hurricane severity index rating of 30 out 50 points (15 for both size and intensity). In real terms, this will be a Category Four landfall producing winds gusting 120 knots, with a hurricane force windfield of 60 miles and a tropical storm force windfield of almost 350 miles. Storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the centre particularly to the east which will be bad news for much of Florida, particularly the Big Bend area where traditionally conservative observers are describing a catastrophic and deadly storm surge where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above sea level along with destructive waves. Even before landfall, damaging and life-threatening hurricane force gusts will penetrate well inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. A fast groundspeed also means HELENE will retain hurricane intensity ashore and in addition to wind and rain, threaten catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding including numerous significant landslides in elevated terrain as far as the southern Appalachians. Disturbance Thirty Six is now crossing the Lesser Antilles with enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. This will track into the Caribbean which is not currently favourable for development although this will change by the middle of next week as it approaches central America. Tropical Storm ISAAC is currently centred around 700 miles south-sou’east of Newfoundland. ISAAC is shaping up to become a hurricane in a few days as it tracks east-nor’east across the open Atlantic but will be well clear of land and only bother fish and sailors. Weakening will follow early next week, well to the north of the Azores. Disturbance Thirty Five is now three days’ steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands and becoming better organised in favourable environmental conditions and is likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend. A track towards the west-nor’west is expected over the next few days followed by a turn towards the northeast forecast and a dash into north Atlantic anonymity as a fish storm. Disturbance Thirty Eight has just slipped the African coast and is headed west into marginal development prospects. Stand by for hurricane landfall and widespread damaging impact along the coast of Florida and inland. All opinions expressed in these reports are those of Captain Adroan McCourt and not Tysers Insurance Brokers or Munich Re Syndicate. Image CIRA/RAMMB

A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today (8 October) if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula this evening. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 knots from TAFB, with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and 165 mph (145 knots). Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with maximum winds estimated to be 165 mph (145 knots). Another Air Force mission is entering Milton as we speak. Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term 12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 knots). Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. In addition, the stronger-than-normal winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Forecaster Berg. Advisory Number 15. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

MILTON set to deliver second powerful strike to Florida. Storm Watch Monday 07 October 2024. Stay informed and be prepared. From west to east; Category Two hurricane MILTON is still in the east-central Bay of Campeche around 200 miles west of Tampico. Aerial images are showing a robust eye developing. One regular reader at sea has advised me of line squalls with winds gusting 105 knots, increasing as the glass falls. This is not good. Warm water and a slow ground speed towards the east will allow this to intensify into a major hurricane later today, then peak tomorrow as it passes north of the Yucatan with a hurricane severity index (HSI) rating of 26 out 50 points (10 for size and 16 for intensity). Optimistic observers are relying on wind shear cutting in to the convection cycle as it then proceeds towards Florida but even then, will remain a major hurricane at landfall on Wednesday south of St Petersburg, perhaps as a category three storm. I hope they are right. If wind shear does not perform as hoped, this will be a very catastrophic blow indeed. At the moment, MILTON is expanding its footprint and tidal surge on the west coast of Florida is the greatest threat with significant wind and wave impacts for the southeast coast of the United States. Despite (hopefully) weakening before landfall, this will be a damaging storm as it moves across the Florida peninsula, then on into the Atlantic with strong winds to the north of its track across the northern Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia, and coastal South Carolina. Category One hurricane KIRK is on the down ramp now, centred 470 miles west of the Azores and headed east-nor’east at a brisk 30 knots. This is still producing some lusty windspeeds with gusts touching 100 knots but is weakening and likely to lose its tropical characteristics as accelerates to the east-nor’east as it passes well to the north of the Azores. KIRK has a tropical storm force windfield of 300 miles which might brush the Azores, but fairly lightly. Category One LESLIE is also halfway down the gangway. Currently 1,500 miles east of the Caribbean and moving to the northwest at 12 knots, LESLIE will gradually weaken over the next few days as it tracks to the north-west and eventually disappears into the gloom of an early North Atlantic winter. Clouds are gathering over the African coast with unusual enthusiasm which may indicate an emerging system with a twinkle in its eye. We’ll keep an eye on this. Stand by for hurricane conditions across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. All opinions expressed in these reports are those of Captain Adrian McCourt and not those of Tysers Insurance Brokers or Munich Re Syndicate. Image NOAA

https://lnkd.in/eCZ5fW8B Category TWO HURRICANE MILTON. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later today (6 October) or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to the forecast. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening. A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 75 mph (65 knots). These winds reduce down to the surface to about 65 mph (55 knots), and this value will be the initial intensity. The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Forecaster Blake. Advisory Number 5. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

https://lnkd.in/eCZ5fW8B Category TWO HURRICANE MILTON. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later today (6 October) or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to the forecast. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening. A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 75 mph (65 knots). These winds reduce down to the surface to about 65 mph (55 knots), and this value will be the initial intensity. The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or 105/5 knots. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula. As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been a southward change to most of the guidance this morning (6 October). The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatán Peninsula as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last Forecaster Blake. Advisory Number 5. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Hurricane Rafael heads for Gulf of Mexico as Category 2 storm November 7, 2024 at 02:45PM https://ift.tt/qo5lnzi https://ift.tt/pVbeMAX The Yucatán Peninsula is bracing for intense rainstorms on Thursday as Hurricane Rafael slowly makes its way into the south-central region of the Gulf of Mexico. Rafael — a Category 2 hurricane as of 2 p.m. Mexico City time Thursday, down from a Category 3 on Wednesday afternoon — was about 350 kilometers north-north-east of Cabo Catorche, Quintana Roo, according to Mexico’s National Water Commission (Conagua). As Rafael passes by Mexico, it will continue to weaken but bring tropical-storm-force winds to the Yucatán Peninsula and to states along the Gulf of Mexico coast as it takes about five days to move through the region. (NHC) Rafael’s arrival in Cuba Wednesday as a Category 3 storm took out the island nation’s power grid with over 200 km/hr winds and brought flooding and heavy damage to Havana, Mayabeque and Artemisa, according to President Miguel Diaz-Canel’s account on the social media platform X. Cuba was still experiencing residual rains from the storm on Thursday afternoon even as the storm headed toward the Gulf of Mexico. Current models have Rafael moving slowly west over the weekend before turning slightly southwest early next week, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. If the model holds (initial models had Rafael heading toward the U.S. Gulf Coast), the hurricane is likely to weaken as it veers toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico in the direction of the states of Veracruz and Tabasco.  Conagua reported that as of noon, Rafael was featuring sustained maximum winds of 155 km/hour, gusts of up to 195 km/hour and was moving northwest at 15 km/hour. The advisory also warned that the hurricane’s outer bands would increase humidity across the peninsula, stoking heavy rain (25 to 50 mm) in the states of Yucatán and Quintana Roo, as well as cloudbursts in Campeche on the southwestern side of the peninsula. A hazardous weather outlook was also issued for Yucatán and Quintana Roo as Conagua warned that the outer bands would bring winds of up to 60 km/hour while also producing waves reaching up to 2 meters in height on Thursday afternoon.  Yucatán’s Civil Protection authorities advised residents in eastern, central and southern municipalities to take precautions as storm conditions worsened throughout the day, according to the newspaper Diario de Yucatán. Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) expects Rafael to weaken throughout the weekend, with maximum sustained winds dipping to 65 km/hour by Tuesday. If the forecast holds, Rafael would be downgraded to a tropical storm and not make landfall in Mexico, according to the newspaper Milenio. Instead, the storm would dissipate and drift north while remaining 400 kilometers or more off the coast of the state of Tamaulipas.  With reports from Milenio and Diario de Yucatán The post Hurricane Rafael heads for Gulf of...