Razumkov Centre’s Post

Irreversible Changes Underway in Russian Society Kseniya "Kassie" Kirillova for Eurasia Daily Monitor Executive Summary: •The Russian population’s interest in the war against Ukraine has significantly declined over the past two years, confirming some sociologists’ conclusion that the initial considerable pro-war sentiment was more about adapting to a new “normal” than genuine public support. •Russian society has experienced a significant increase in violence and acceptance of that violence due to the return of pardoned convicts from the front and increased societal distress due to the prolonged war. •The Russian public’s acceptance of increased violence alludes to a future of societal regression, which directly influences society’s potential for democratic changes in the short term. https://lnkd.in/e5n32Czk

I see the point and agree that the term "post-Soviet" is often misused as a shortcut to the region often failing to recognise the individuality of nations in the region (similarly, I see some of my students referring to this or that Central Asian country as "one of those stans"), but the suggestion to abandon it overlooks the rationale behind the concept. In more refined views, traditionally, it has been used to highlight the unique challenges of the transition period and shared histories of the ex-Soviet republics rather than merely serving as a geographical indicator. The post-Soviet is not only or necessarily about Russia or aligning with Russia. Moreover, the term has no strong normative weight to justify the push to discard the "post-Soviet" label. Hence, the political motivation for these efforts remains vague. The reasons offered in this note below in favour of abandoning the concept have been there for the past 32 years but are seemingly discovered only now. No doubt, it is about the war in Ukraine. Yet, for a sensitive eye, the war in Ukraine itself is a very post-Soviet phenomenon. The post-Soviet identity has evolved dynamically from its initial state, moving beyond its early-1990s context to what I describe as post-Soviet 2.0. This evolution reflects not only divergences but also enduring commonalities among these nations. The concept of "Eurasian continuities," as introduced by Libman and Obydenkova, aligns with this perspective, advocating for a nuanced understanding over the outright dismissal of post-Soviet narratives (see here: https://lnkd.in/g3n739zm). Nevertheless, I also question the applicability of "Eurasian" in this particular context. It appears to represent a nascent identity that has not been uniformly, or even necessarily, adopted across the entire region. In contrast, I would consider "post-Soviet continuities" to be more suitable as a conceptual framework or guiding principle. https://lnkd.in/gqBMkBNM

An excellent piece from the Letters to the Editor published in The Economist issue of July 27, 2024. Really questions the double standards as we see today. Bear hug double standards You ran a story on the meeting between Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, and Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, ("Bear-hugging bros", July 13th). Just before the meeting, Russia launched missile strikes across Ukraine, including on a children's hospital, killing 44 people. Every sincere person would condemn this brutality and unprovoked attack by Russia on a sovereign nation. You then said Mr Modi still went ahead with the meeting and gave Mr Putin a bear hug. Yet how many times have Western leaders given bear hugs to Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, while Israeli forces bombed civilians, including children, in Gaza and did not spare hospitals. What we in India fail to comprehend is the double standards of the West, where Mr Putin is seen as a violent renegade, and rightly so, but where Mr Netanyahu's constant violations of human rights in Palestine are not only excused but also supported and condoned. Until Western countries condemn Mr Netanyahu in the way they have done with Mr Putin, their claims of being concerned about the Ukraine war on humanitarian grounds will fail to cut ice with those of us in non-aligned countries. Ethics demand that what's bad for the goose must also be bad for the gander. Bear-hugging Mr Netanyahu while condemning Mr Putin reeks of hypocrisy. SAKET GOKHALE MP Rajya Sabha Parliament of India Delhi Well done Mr. Gokhale - you have spoken for over 3 billion people who are baffled by the double standards being shown by many including the US, UK, Germany and many of their poodles in ostracizing Russian President Putin while embracing the war criminal and genocidal Netanyahu. #stopthegenocide #freepalestine #netanyahuisawarcriminal #israeliwarcrimes

Israel serves as the perfect alibi as the West extends its control over the oil-rich Middle East, disrupting the emergence of any non-subservient power blocs that might ally with potential rivals like China and Russia. And all the while, Washington can redirect the blame to a supposedly defiant Israel – or more specifically, a rogue Benjamin Netanyahu – for committing the atrocities the US empire needs to maintain that control. Israel is the West’s teflon coating. Israel carries out a genocide in Gaza, sending a message beloved by all gangsters that defiance is not only futile but suicidal. Israel further hollows out the sovereign state of Lebanon, and tries to reignite its lengthy, catastrophic, sectarian civil war. Israel isolates and boxes in Iran from its allies, and provides the belligerent mood music to stop at any cost Tehran from developing a nuclear arsenal equivalent to the one that Israel already possesses. And Israel helps to foment the conviction among western publics that they are in a permanent, existential clash of civilisations against a barbarian, Muslim East – a supposed clash that requires more expenditure on the West’s war-waging, homeland security and surveillance industries, and more austerity measures on public services to pay for it all. Meanwhile, the same western publics are encouraged to devote their attention, not to these endless resource grabs from the power-elite, but to a supposed threat posed by immigrants fleeing to our shores from the wars we initiated on their shores. And if we raise out voice to protest any of this? Be in no doubt. The Guardian and the rest of the establishment media will be only too sure to remind us that it is we who are the antisemites.

Long but interesting read on Russian geopolitics and pathways forward.

New peer-reviewed research explains many "reasons" for the #Russian invasion of #Ukraine - none of them were good. 1) When believers in Hitler ("lying press"), #Trump / #GOP /#Republicans ("fake news media"), #Putin ("Western media), cults and conspiracies refuse to learn from the most well-documented information from established, major media in democratic countries, then research may help - if that is not rejected too. Academic researchers also tend to be critical of the West when that is required. However, some research use models falsely assuming rational national interests are always driving foreign policies - even in a largely dictatorial, right-wing kleptocracy like Russia today. "Building on this, the article has argued that a “fuller” explanation requires us to explore the interrelation of different factors. Moving beyond the general claim that “everything somehow matters,” we offered an account focusing on the interplay of three sets of factors: first, Ukraine’s strategic and historical-civilizational importance to Russia; second, Moscow’s declining influence in and over Ukraine; and third, Putin’s misguided views on Ukrainian statehood coupled with Russia’s highly centralized and personalized political system." "In the fourth article, Tor Bukkvoll and Frank Brundtland Steder examine Ukrainians’ willingness to fight and resist. Presenting original survey data, they show that Ukrainians’ willingness to fight and resist increased dramatically after Russia’s 2022 attack. Moreover, Bukkvoll and Steder suggest several factors to explain this trend, including a rise in civic, but not ethnic, sense of national pride; increased trust in Ukrainian political institutions; a rise in trust in the Ukrainian armed forces; and an impression that Ukraine is not alone in its war against Russia." The Russian attack "In the final article of this special issue, Roy Allison takes on the important task of critically deconstructing the legal, pseudo-legal, and political arguments used by Russia to legitimize the war against Ukraine. Allison identifies a realpolitik core of Russia’s legal claims and discusses the weaknesses of this line of argumentation. He then moves on to examine the Kremlin’s political rhetoric – such as Putin’s frequent references to the notion of “historic justice”. Allison concludes that Russia’s abuse of legal and normative arguments poses not only a threat to Ukraine but also to the existing system of global rules and norms." https://lnkd.in/dbxR6Etv Articles with the ocus on #Belarus and #Moldovia are also included. Meanwhile, the renewed Ukranian access to weapons are making a big impact on the battlefields and Russian strategically important sites. 1) Götz, E., & Ekman, P. (2024). Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Context, Causes, and Consequences. Problems of Post-Communism, 71(3), 193–205. https://lnkd.in/d4ttHeR4

If you want to understand what is really going on with respect to Israel read this (long read):

"Yes, Russian society is in a state of conformist apathy, justifying the war to itself by borrowing words given to the public by the authorities; the political opposition is in exile, in jail, or dead. Yet over the past few months, a series of incidents have quietly shown that Russia does have a civil society—that is, communities of people who are prepared for peaceful resistance to the regime. Indeed, the dynamic between free-thinking Russians and the state is much as it was in the Soviet era of stagnation during the later decades of the Cold War. In the 1960s, Soviet dissidents made themselves known. It was hardly noticed by the general public, but the history of resistance really began in those years. These writers, scientists, and activists were not trying to overthrow the Soviet regime; they were merely seeking to force the authorities to honor the rights and principles enshrined in the Soviet constitution. For a while, the authorities did not know how to respond, because this peaceful behavior did not qualify as “anti-Soviet activity,” and yet it could not go unpunished. But then they discovered they could criminalize these actions by changing the law. So began a new wave of repression that, after a few years, quashed nearly any independent expression of civil society. By 1972 the Soviet writer and dissident Lydia Chukovskaya could write in her diary, “There is no public life or activity in Russia: the state has gobbled it all up.” To anyone who has experienced Putin’s Russia, the process that Chukovskaya described is familiar." https://lnkd.in/e7Uriw6v

IRAN: Change Must Come... but from Within I have resisted talking about this subject for a very long time: Iran's Domestic Politics. Before, I begin, and in anticipation of the (inevtiable) abuse and invective I will receive, I am no apologist for the 'Islamic Republic' of Iran, whose submission to the Dustbin of History remains one of my unyielding desires. My comment is simple: Those outside Iran (including myself) have no place to criticise or suggest alternative arrangements, most especially when these involve fomenting foreign powers to become involved. The Iranian people must achieve sovereignty by gaining the political maturity to accept responsibility for change. Change that they must shape and instruct from within Iran. Any nostalgic ideas Mr Pahlavi has of resuming the monarchy are equally idiosyncratic and unwelcome. Iranians have been struggling for democracy for more than a century, and deserve the same Propositions of Equality that others in the most advanced nations enjoy. Mr Pahlavi, if you wish to participate in Iran's domestic politics, then have the courage of your convictions and return to Iran; take up the mantle of leadership you crave, as Benazir Bhutto, Aung San Suu Kyi, Gandhi and Mandella and countless others have done by being among their people, not some Wizard of Oz in an Emerald City, far away. https://lnkd.in/dmV97Zja