RBT CPAs’ Post

If Trump Wins Again: Challenges and Opportunities for the Logistics World Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency could trigger significant disruptions in the logistics industry. Reflecting on his past protectionist trade policies, here’s what we might expect: 🔹 Trade Policies and Tariffs: Trump plans to increase import tariffs, with Chinese imports potentially facing rates as high as 60%. These measures could shrink global trade volumes and drastically raise logistics costs, particularly impacting firms operating along the US-China trade corridor. 🔹 Supply Chain Shifts: Companies may be forced to relocate production back to the US, leading to major changes in supply chains. This will require logistics providers to rethink routes and storage strategies, potentially driving large-scale operational restructuring in the short term. 🔹 International Trade Agreements: Trump's hard stance on trade agreements could introduce significant uncertainty, posing risks for the logistics sector. Planning and executing long-term strategies may become increasingly difficult in such an unpredictable environment. 🔹 Energy Policies: Support for fossil fuel production could drive energy prices up, impacting transportation costs. This would not only lower profit margins for logistics operations but also push demand for energy-efficient and sustainable transportation solutions. 🔹 Global Economic Uncertainty: The ripple effects of Trump's policies on the global economy could extend beyond the US and China, negatively affecting Europe and potentially reducing trade volumes. This could lead to a period of slower growth for the logistics industry. In summary, Trump's re-election could present both challenges and opportunities for the logistics sector. Supply chain professionals must be ready to adapt and develop flexible solutions to navigate these changes. How do you think the logistics world should prepare for these potential shifts? I’d love to hear your thoughts! 💬

US Election Results Already Impact Supply Chains & Sourcing   Enough opinions are shared. Therefore, the following thoughts are not of a political nature. Let's get down to business and see if this has already possible effects on today's supply chains & sourcing activities. But also, let's learn from the past and consider previous decisions made during the first term in office as they still impact us today. CNBC provided an excellent summary on November 6th: 📌Retailers & manufacturing companies have been increasingly calling logistics partners, both in the days leading up to the presidential election and on Election Night, about front-loading shipments ahead of any changes in tariff policy to be pursued by President-elect Trump, who campaigned on an aggressive expansion of existing U.S. tariffs on cross-border trade 📌There will be a surge in import demand for containerized goods as U.S. companies stock up ahead of new tariffs. Especially related to goods that are not time-sensitive and will create upward pressure on freight rates in the coming months 📌Front-loading of shipping contributed to the 70% inflation in freight rates, according to data from 2018. Potential tariffs provide cost risk on global supply chains 📌 Proposed tariffs would cause companies to delay further their investment in Mexico and uncertainty around USMCA renegotiation in 2026, potentially impacting trading My observation: Overall, we see great similarities to the past. Trump’s policies notably impacted global supply chains, reshaping trade flows, manufacturing trends, and sourcing strategies. Here are some key ways his policies influenced (and probably will in the future) supply chains: ⏩Trade Wars & Tariffs. Trump initiated a trade war with China, imposing tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods -> Diversification of Sourcing to countries in Southeast Asia ⏩Renegotiation of Trade Deals. Trump renegotiated NAFTA into the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), impacting North American supply chains -> This influenced U.S. companies to source more materials domestically or from Canada and Mexico. ⏩Push for Domestic Manufacturing. Trump's administration promoted an "America First" approach-> Pressure on companies to invest in U.S. production facilities ⏩Impact on Technology and Semiconductor Supply Chains. Trump’s administration placed restrictions on Chinese tech giants like Huawei, impacting the semiconductor supply chain -> Push for Domestic Semiconductor Production ⏩Trump’s earlier policies set the stage for a trend toward "de-globalization," with companies increasingly evaluating supply chain resilience, diversity, and national security in their sourcing decisions. While Biden has taken a different approach, some of Trump’s policies, especially on China, remain influential, as supply chain resilience and domestic production remain priorities in U.S. policy. Politics & Uncertainty will keep us busy in Supply Chain. Your thoughts?

How will a new Trump presidency shape the future of global supply chains? With tariffs on Chinese imports potentially rising up to 100%, the implications for global trade are immense. Key industries reliant on overseas manufacturing, from consumer electronics to e-commerce, may soon face substantial cost increases. Businesses like Apple and Temu could be particularly impacted, while U.S.-based companies with domestic infrastructure may gain a competitive edge. This article provides insight into the expected freight and supply chain disruptions and explores how companies might adapt in this evolving trade landscape: https://bit.ly/3Ce03US #supplychain #manufacturing #USelection #economy #trump

👨🏫 👨🏫 The imminent U.S. election: How will it affect the polyester industry chain? As the U.S. presidential election approaches, recent polls indicate a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with the Democrats leading by just 1%. This political landscape has significant implications for the polyester industry, particularly regarding trade policies, tariffs, and the overall market dynamics. 1.Trade Policies and Tariffs The election results will profoundly impact trade policies over the next four years. Harris is likely to continue Biden's approach, favoring selective tariffs aimed at countering China, which could mitigate impacts on consumers. In contrast, a Trump victory may lead to more aggressive trade measures, increasing tariffs and supply chain restrictions. This scenario could exacerbate U.S.-China trade tensions, disrupting global supply chains and the polyester industry. During Trump's previous administration, between 2017 and 2020, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on approximately $370 billion worth of Chinese goods, raising the average tariff rate from 3% to 19%. This increase resulted in higher costs for Chinese products in the U.S. market, leading to a substantial decline in China's exports to the U.S. and a slowdown in overall export growth. The tense relationship between the two largest economies in the world has also heightened uncertainties in international trade, suppressing global trade growth. If Trump were to be re-elected, the implementation of such trade policies would likely lead to further decoupling of U.S.-China trade. This would have specific repercussions for the polyester industry chain, particularly in terms of raw material availability, production costs, and market dynamics................... Follow me and stay tuned for my follow-up posts on how the US election affects the polyester industry. 💪 🗽 🗽 #polyester #USElection #plastic  

𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐃𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚: 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐓𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲’𝐬 𝐂𝐡𝐨𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔.𝐒.-𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐫? As Americans vote today, the stakes are high for global trade. With Donald Trump and Kamala Harris offering different approaches, how could the result impact your supply chains? 1. 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐬 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐲? Regardless of the winner, tariffs on Chinese imports aren’t going away anytime soon. Here’s what companies are up against:   - Semiconductors: 50% tariffs by 2025 (up from 25%).   - Electric Vehicles: a 100% duty.   - Solar Cells: 50% duty.   - Key materials like steel, aluminum, and EV batteries: 25% duty. 2. 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚? 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐐𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐞.   While firms like Igloo are shifting some production to Vietnam to avoid tariffs, the Chinese market remains critical. A recent survey shows that 70% of CEOs operating in China are increasing their investments there. Why? China’s mature supply chain and innovation capacities are hard to replace. 3. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐚𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞?  Trump has hinted at even more aggressive tariffs, including a 60% blanket duty on Chinese imports. Harris, on the other hand, may push for a steadier approach. Either way, tensions with China will remain. 4. 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐁𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝? Technology is becoming the core of trade restrictions, with both candidates likely to limit access to strategic tech goods. Given that tech will drive economic growth, how prepared is your supply chain for possible tech-specific tariffs? Let's ask the big questions: ❓ How will your strategy adapt? ❓ Could your cost structure absorb such changes? Let's discuss. 👇 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have 20 years of experience in supply chain and global trade. Follow Manoj Harilela for the latest on industry trends, geopolitical impacts, and strategies to optimize supply chains across Asia and beyond. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #TradeWar #USElection2024 #Tariffs #SupplyChainResilience #GlobalTrade #USChinaTrade #TradeTensions #SupplyChainStrategy #EconomicImpact

This may be American manufacturing's last stand. That's the argument we make in a new report that examines how China's massive, unchecked overcapacity threatens U.S. industry and factory workers. China's overcapacity already decimated America's glass, paper, and tire industries. Now, it's bearing down on steel, solar, and autos, threatening the livelihoods of millions of American workers. The U.S. has taken action, with the Biden administration issuing tariffs in many sectors to combat China's unfair trade practices. But it likely won't be enough. That's because overcapacity is a feature, not a bug, of China's state-directed economy. The goal isn't for Chinese firms to make a profit; China wants to dominate global industry. The United States needs to be far more proactive and far more adaptable in response. In the report, we call for a series of 10 policy actions designed to mitigate China's industrial overcapacity, including reinstating Section 421 import surge protection; modernizing U.S. trade enforcement tools; further utilizing Section 232 and 301 measures; and ensuring that investments in U.S. industry -- including taxpayer dollars -- benefit American workers and businesses, not our foreign adversaries. Reuters has the scoop on the report below. We link to the full report in the comments.

Quantum Insights: Will Biden's China tariff policy spark another trade war that reshapes global supply chains? As the Biden administration considers imposing additional tariffs on Chinese imports, industry groups are mobilizing to challenge these measures due to potential economic disruptions. This development signals a pivotal moment for global trade dynamics, particularly for sectors deeply intertwined with the US-China economic relations. The proposed tariff hikes aim to address longstanding trade imbalances and intellectual property concerns. However, the economic repercussions could be significant, impacting industries from technology to consumer goods. 👉🏻 According to a recent report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a 10% increase in tariffs could lead to a 0.3% reduction in US GDP, reflecting the interdependencies of the global supply chain. Moreover, the semiconductor industry which is already strained by the global chip shortage, could face further disruptions. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), China's leading chipmaker, would be directly affected which could potentially exacerbate supply constraints and drive-up costs for US tech companies. 👉🏻 Data from Gartner highlights that the global semiconductor market could see a $25 billion shortfall if these tariffs are imposed. The consumer goods sector is also vulnerable. Higher tariffs on Chinese imports mean increased costs for US retailers, which are likely to be passed on to the consumers. 👉🏻 A study by Kantar found that a 15% tariff on consumer electronics could lead to a 5-10% increase in retail prices, squeezing household budgets and potentially slowing consumer spending. From a strategic standpoint, these tariffs might push US companies to diversify their supply chains, reducing reliance on Chinese manufacturing. While this shift could mitigate future risks, it involves significant investment and time. 👉🏻 A Bloomberg analysis suggests that relocating 10% of a company’s supply chain outside China could take up to three years and cost $1 billion, depending on the industry. With expert financial services outsourcing and strategic advisory solutions, Quantum Finserv is adept at assisting businesses navigating these turbulent waters. Connect with us to future-proof your business operations. Do you believe the benefits of the proposed tariffs outweigh the potential economic drawbacks? How might your industry adapt to these changes? #Quantumfinserv #qf #US #China #Trade #Economy #EXIM #GDP #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #Semiconductor #CPG #Risk

Dive into the shifting dynamics of global commerce with our latest article! Discover how trade relationships between Mexico, the US, and China are evolving amidst tariffs and trade tensions. Projections for 2024 hint at an earlier peak season as businesses seek alternative solutions in the face of ongoing issues. Stay ahead of the curve with insights into import freight, logistics, and the role of Jillamy in optimizing supply chains. #importexportbusiness #SupplyChain #logistics #internationaltrade

As Former President Trump and Vice President Harris take the debate stage tonight, their differing trade agendas are expected to be a center stage item for executives & board directors looking to understand and proactively address any shifts in corporate tax rates, tariffs, and supply chain policy. We explore what to expect from both candidates tonight in our refreshed "Trade Policy Foresight Report" here: https://bit.ly/3z1n3VW If short on time, five high-level takeaways: 1. Harris' Trade Policy: Biden 2.0? Much of Vice President Harris’ approach will feel like a continuation of President Biden’s trade agenda. Expect a pro-union, protectionist agenda with a focus on “high-fence” policies surrounding critical technologies such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and quantum. 2. Consistency with Export Controls The "small yard, high fence" approach to export controls will continue, no matter who wins. Both candidates view economic and national security as tightly interwoven—particularly for critical industries like semiconductors, quantum, hypersonics, and electric vehicles. Export controls on these sectors are unlikely to soften and are likely to intensify. 3. Tariffs: A Sharp Divide Former President Trump is advocating for two cornerstone policies: a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, regardless of HTS code, and a 10% increase in the MFN (Most-Favored-Nation) rate for all countries, which has floated as high as 20%. These policies would add fuel to the reshoring momentum and accelerate any supply chain diversification strategies already in motion. Beyond tariffs, Trump’s plans to phase out Chinese electronics and pharmaceuticals, combined with strict anti-circumvention measures, are likely to compel companies to not just shift operations but fundamentally change their supply chains. 4. Trade Agreements: A Trump Focal Point While Harris’ trade agenda suggests more of a defensive stance, the Trump Team is known for its aggressive pursuit of new trade deals. Rumored negotiations with the UK, Kenya, Japan, and even Taiwan are already being floated. For businesses, this creates both risks and opportunities—particularly for those in supply chain management. Watching these deals closely could provide first-mover advantages as they reshape trade flows and market access. 5. The U.S.-Mexico Trade Relationship: An Emerging Flashpoint The U.S.-Mexico trade relationship will be under intense scrutiny for the next 24 months, regardless of the election outcome. As the US.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) approaches its sunset, both sides will face contentious renegotiations. Expect debates around border security and tariff circumvention through Mexico to become hot topics, especially as President-elect Sheinbaum prepares to take office. Want to dive deeper? Feel free to reach out via LinkedIn Chat or email. #trade #tradepolicy #debate #POTUS #Trump #Harris #tariffs #tradedeal #supplychain #operations #strategy #geopoliticalrisk #exportcontrols

The escalating U.S.-China trade conflict is heating up. The Biden Administration has amplified tariffs on Chinese goods, including steel, aluminum, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, aiming to safeguard American industries. China has responded by pushing for self-sufficiency in high-tech manufacturing, investing heavily in domestic capabilities. Additionally, the U.S. has restricted exports from key American chipmakers to China, leading China to avoid American-made chips in government purchases altogether. This trade tension is driving a significant shift in global supply chains. Many U.S. manufacturers are relocating operations to Mexico, Southeast Asia, and India. China, in turn, is diversifying its manufacturing footprint to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs. Despite these moves, the deep-seated manufacturing interdependence between the U.S. and China is unlikely to fully unravel. This trade war, driven by the need to protect domestic jobs, is set to persist irrespective of political changes. How should you react? Reach out to us, and we'll make sure to navigate you through it! Read more in the article below ⬇