Rick Li’s Post

A Second Trump Presidency: Potential Global Trade Policy Shifts and Economic Implications #DonaldTrump, #AmericaFirst, #GlobalTrade, #TradeWars, #ChinaTrade, #USChinaRelations, #Tariffs, #EconomicImpact, #SupplyChains, #TradePolicy, #USEconomy, #BusinessStrategy, #InternationalTrade, #TradeDisputes, #GlobalMarkets, #InvestorSentiment, #Protectionism, #USAllies, #Manufacturing, #TradeTensions

Wonder about the US trade policy? A take from William Reinsch one of the Trade Guys at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) “So, the new normal is beginning to look like the pre-World War II normal, the law of the jungle where the biggest and strongest take care of themselves and push the others around. From that perspective, the past 75 years have not been a new normal; they have just been a bug rather than a feature.” Read it here https://lnkd.in/gqrZjACr

When political capitalism creeps into industrial and trade policies! 🤫 From Ms Tett: "Seven years ago, I strode through the long black-and-white corridors of the White House’s Executive Office of the President to a room occupied by Peter Navarro, adviser to the then president Donald Trump. Navarro’s desk was buried beneath piles of paper. “I’m always messy,” the economist laughed, and presented a 140-page report with an American flag on the cover titled “Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States”. This asserted that the US had become dangerously reliant on overseas suppliers for vital goods and thus needed industrial policies and trade controls. “That’s a bit retro,” I joked. The last time such language had proliferated was during and after the second world war, when the American government tried to shape business to national ends. In peacetime, arguably the only comparable moment was the explosion of protectionism around the world that followed the Wall Street crash of 1929. That episode ended so badly that by the late 20th century, industrial policy and tariffs seemed as unfashionable as flappers. The corridors of the EOP were filled with officials with a free-market, pro-globalisation ethos, who generally viewed trade through the lens of the classical economist David Ricardo (1772-1823). Their assumption was that open trade benefits all: countries export goods to earn money to pay for imports, and if each specialises in areas of comparative advantage, then everyone is better off. ........."

This piece by Sam Lowe is brilliant. I couldn't resist sharing it. 🤩 ___ First, it summarises Trump’s simplistic #trade logic: "Exporting things is good; importing things is bad." And following this train of thought, he tries to find out "who might be on Donald's [s]hit list?"... /* Yeah, I know, my pun style, but for once, it is not me 🥹 */ ... By creating the "MAGA index". Where MAGA stands for "Measure of American Goods Advantage." However, "countries won’t be solely judged on the size of their persistent surplus/deficit. There are many other ways to find yourself on the [s]hit list, and the MAGA index doesn’t account for the actual value/volume of trade under consideration." And due to "quid pro quo arrangements between politicians and firms, as opposed to the '#information' channel linking political access to regulatory outcomes," recommends befriending "the new President and his buddies" like there’s no tomorrow... #ThatsTheSpirit ✨🌞 Then there is how #EU dealt with Trump back in the Jean-Claude Juncker days, but the way he puts it is hilarious. 🤭 "Erstwhile European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker managed to talk Trump out of applying car tariffs to the EU by telling Trump the EU would commit to buying more American soybeans and #LNG. Did Juncker have any power to actually make this happen? No. Did Juncker simply identify a #trend that was happening anyway? Yes. Did it work? Seemingly! Genius." __ A humorous but solid analysis that deserves to be read in its entirety.😉 #geotech #tradewar #geopolics #geopoliticalrisk #economicwar #techwar #policy #policymaking #diplomacy #internationalaffairs #internationalrelations #businessintelligence

For those who fear continued American domination, a protectionist America is a weak America. Perhaps we should be supporting the clown? Excerpt: "In the 1990s presidential hopefuls fought over how much America should open itself up to commerce with other countries. Nowadays, the trade debate revolves around how much America should close itself off. Donald Trump is the more radical of the two candidates, with a vision for tariffs that would turn the clock back nearly a century on economic strategy. Kamala Harris is less extreme but still sees a world in which America is best served by soft protectionism, featuring subsidies for favoured industries." (Subscription may be required) #worldtrade #ustariffs #usprotectionism #presidentialelection What America’s presidential election means for world trade https://lnkd.in/g8nzVMQs from The Economist

For a good review of the “tariff man,” Robert Lighthizer, read this piece. Lighthizer, as trade watchers know, has several claims to fame. He helped invent Section 301 in the 1970s and got Trump to pull this tool out of the box. He also pushed hard for tariff increases, in general, as a way to push US manufacturing interests. He has little use for multilateralism and isn’t fussed over the consequences of US actions for anyone else. He may well be coming back to even greater power in January. #trade #trumptradepolicy #deglobalization

🚢 The #shipping industry is navigating choppy waters as #US economic nationalism threatens global #trade. Guy Platten, head of the International Chamber of Shipping, warns that protectionist policies could return “on steroids“ if Trump wins the presidency. 🌊 The threat to world order is at its highest since WWII, with both major US parties pushing protectionist agendas. Chinese shipowners fear potential tariffs, while data shows a surge in China-Americas trade as businesses brace for possible new restrictions. The shipping industry, a cornerstone of globalization, faces uncertain times as the US shifts away from its traditional role as a champion of free trade. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 https://lnkd.in/e_d5QhhB #GlobalTrade #MaritimeIndustry #EconomicPolicy

One issue that is not getting enough attention in this election, especially for its impact on Virginia, is the growing “anti-trade” mentality of both major parties. Trade accounts for roughly one in five jobs in the Commonwealth. These jobs span various industries, from manufacturing and agriculture to defense and technology. I discuss the critical role trade plays in expanding the world's economic pie, and in creating alliances that promote peace and cooperation. https://lnkd.in/ejtkB2PH

In this latest Flint blog, our trade experts Sam Lowe, William Haworth and Kathryn Watson assess the options available to the EU and UK to protect against a potential Trump trade agenda. Read here https://lnkd.in/eTd_ynVE

Superb analysis of how and why trade policy has evolved over the years and a persuasive call for reframing US trade policy not around economics or geopolitics but as "a key element of solving global challenges that affect us all, like the green energy transition and the risks of AI and the digital economy." Peter was one of many provocative and insightful speakers at yesterday's superb @WCIT Trade Summit event in Seattle, where the need for innovation in trade policy to better benefit US companies and workers was a common theme. #geopolitics #internationaltrade