Rob Lott’s Post

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Owner, Lead Creative at Blue Trumpet Creative

In 2009, the London Philharmonic Orchestra and its conductor, David Parry, selected and recorded what they believed to be the 50 greatest pieces of classical music. The list includes 5 pieces by Beethoven, 6 by Mozart, and 3 by Bach. To create those masterpieces, Beethoven produced 650 pieces of music, Mozart wrote more than 600, and Bach composed more than 1,000. If they were baseball players, Mozart’s batting average would have been .01—one in one hundred. You don’t even make a Little League team with that kind of batting average. Bach’s and Beethoven’s batting averages were even worse! And Handel only had one hit. There are two errors that we make in evaluation—a false positive and a false negative. A false positive is a false alarm. It’s the boy who cried wolf when there was no wolf. A false positive is believing something to be true that turns out to be false. In business, it’s a product that is expected to be a home run but turns out to be a swing and a miss. A false negative is the opposite. It’s expecting failure but experiencing success. A psychologist named Aaron Kozbelt has examined letters written by Beethoven, in which he evaluated seventy of his works. Kozbelt compared Beethoven’s self-assessment with the opinions of experts, and he found that Beethoven committed fifteen false positives. In other words, compositions that he thought were major turned out to be minor. He also committed eight false negatives. He criticized pieces that are some of his greatest works. That’s a 33 percent error rate even after receiving audience feedback. Win The Day by Mark Batterson

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