RODY NASO’s Post

RSIS | S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies report on Syria’s trials ahead Factionalism in Syria’s Future Governance Both Bashar Assad and his father, Hafez Assad, relied on sectarian and ethnic divisions to consolidate power, thereby institutionalising factionalism. This factionalism – deeply influenced by external forces – exacerbates instability and fragmentation. Porous borders facilitate the influx of foreign fighters, weapons, and resources, fueling the proliferation of militant factions. Jihadist and Kurdish groups, entrenched within Syria’s fractured landscape, form the structural core of its factionalised conflict. These overlapping divisions underscore the immense challenges to achieving political cohesion and sustainable stability in a post-Assad era. The critical concern with these groups lie in their competing ideologies and divergent sub-interests. As the unifying goal of removing the Assad regime disintegrates, these ideological rivalries are likely to crystallise, transforming them into adversarial entities. Upcoming challenges A complete transition by HTS to civilian governance, severing its Islamist and jihadist ties, would likely alienate hardline elements within HTS ranks while provoking opposition from other factions, including Kurdish Islamist forces and remnants of ISIS. Such a shift risks internal fragmentation and external hostility, leaving HTS ideologically and militarily isolated. Corruption, deeply embedded in Syrian society since the Hafez Assad era and further entrenched under Bashar Assad, remains a systemic issue. Its pervasive nature is likely to endure, obstructing any incoming government’s efforts to establish a just and stable order and leaving the state structurally weakened from the get-go. The exposure of the Assad regime’s brutal prison system reveals a legacy of profound psychological trauma and systemic repression. This enduring trauma threatens societal cohesion and fosters long-term resistance, undermining prospects for stable governance. The “Islamist” Factor The “Islamist” factor is the most critical driver of possible confusion, external intervention, and internal conflict in Syria. The Muslim Brotherhood’s tenure in Egypt from 2012 to 2013 highlights the challenges Islamist movements face in transitioning from opposition to governance. Their experience, which led it to be banned in several Arab countries, reinforced fears among regimes of the destabilising potential of Islamist groups in power. This apprehension stemmed from concerns that such movements could embolden domestic Islamist factions, threatening regime survival. Additionally, Islamist groups often struggle to balance ideological commitments with the pragmatic demands of governance, limiting the feasibility of Islamist rule despite strong grassroots support. https://lnkd.in/gbra7hyk

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗱: 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀  The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a seismic shift in the Syrian and regional landscape, presenting both opportunities and challenges for all involved parties. Here's a brief look at the winners and losers in this pivotal moment: 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 1. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲: After enduring over a decade of civil war and decades of authoritarian rule, Syrians now face a chance for a new beginning. However, this hope is tempered by risks of power vacuums and factional conflicts. 2. 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆: Leveraging its support for Islamist rebels, Turkey stands to gain strategically by curbing Kurdish aspirations and benefiting economically from Syria's reconstruction. 3. 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹: Assad’s fall weakens Iran and Hezbollah, strengthening Israel’s security. Proactive measures are being taken to manage potential chaos along the Syrian border. 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀 1. 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗞𝘂𝗿𝗱𝘀: Autonomous governance in northeastern Syria may erode under a new regime influenced by Turkey-backed Islamist factions. 2. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗹𝗮𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆: A key pillar of Assad’s rule, the Alawites now face potential reprisals for their alignment with the regime. 3. 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮, 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗛𝗲𝘇𝗯𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗵: These strategic allies lost a critical foothold in Syria as resources are diverted to other challenges, such as Russia’s focus on Ukraine and Hezbollah’s diminishing influence after setbacks against Israel. The road ahead for Syria is full of uncertainty. While Assad’s departure signals an end to a brutal chapter, the challenges of rebuilding, reconciliation, and avoiding new conflicts remain formidable. Let’s hope this marks the start of a brighter future for the Syrian people. #Kadhum_Jabbar #Business #Consulting #Politics #Syria #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Russia #Iran #Turkey #Israel #Iraq

conflict proposal part 2 Israeli side (act of decolonization) WEST BANK IS NOW  the 3rd country in the world with Jewsafter Usa and israel !!!!   • Change in the full proportional election system that favours colonizing and extremist parties in Israel   • Plan for 100% of the settlers to withdraw (without destroying buildings and infrastructure in place) taken over by the Palestinians   • On the few overpopulated settlements, land swaps to expand the Palestinian territory in proportion (like exchange done between france and Switzerland and Germany in many case )   • International assistance for the relocation of refugees to Israel   Set up tribunal for extremist on both side based on Gacaca in Rwanda in order to give a chance to the future   Long-term (20 to 25 years )   ·      Control the education and remove the religion part of it   • Promote exchanges between the two communities   • Condemn strong sentences for extremism on both sides (terrorist attacks and extremist settlers )   • Set Arabic as the second language in Israel with English   • Put Hebrew as the 2nd language in Palestine with English   • Mobilize Israeli Arabs as ambassadors for reconciliation   • Twinning town villages on both sides (friendship Franco-German plan in the 1960s)   • Organize exchanges (know each other )   • Slap hard on the extremists   Do not deviate in the long term   If we bring development and hope Tensions will reduce and we will slowly leave the place to resilience     Of course, many will criticize but just propose ... or should we continue like this , just counting the deaths of 2 “future fraternal “peoples ?.        

Iran’s involvement in Syria and Yemen faces criticism for escalating conflicts, highlighting the costs of its regional strategy. #Iran #IranPolitics #MiddleEast #MiddleEastPolitics #Geopolitics #GlobalPolitics #IranForeignPolicy #ConflictResolution

Syria's crisis reflects challenges of division, sectarianism, and foreign interference in the Islamic world. Unity, governance reform, and education are vital to overcoming turmoil and fostering progress. By Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal Read more👇 https://lnkd.in/dQeFv3q4

https://lnkd.in/eHpuiq8y Syria Statement The Islamic Human Rights Commission affirms the fundamental right of both the Syrian and Palestinian people to resist oppression and tyranny and live a dignified existence. Justice and moral consistency demand that we cannot trade one people’s rights away to secure another’s. Yet once more we are being asked to choose between the two by an imperialist/Zionist hegemon that seeks to expand its nefarious influence in Muslim lands. Just as the US and its allies sought to destabilise Syria and destroy the integrity the state in 2011 by hijacking the uprising there, the same forces are using the opportunities presented by the genocide in Gaza to do so again. It is no coincidence that regime change has happened in Damascus while Gaza and its people are being pounded into oblivion in a genocide in which Syria serves as an important conduit for weapons to the resistance groups fighting Israel. The US-Zionist aim is to sever that supply line, switch fronts away from Israel and keep Muslims fighting each other to weaken resistance to the Zionist project. No one should be under any illusion that good ever comes out of regime change that arrives on the back of US-funded troop carriers. We need only look at the recent examples of Afghanistan, Sudan, Iraq and Libya to see that this kind of “revolution” brings neither liberation nor peace and security. We hope and pray that the latest upheavals do not fall prey to Western/Zionist designs and lead to the genuine empowerment of the Syrian people.

"The 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 Islands" (جزایر تنب بزرگ، تنب کوچک و بوموسو) 👉 The Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Bu Muso islands have been part of the Persian empire since the 6th century BC. They have been under Iran's control since 1971 after the withdrawal of British forces from the 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 (خلیج فارس). 🗺️ From the 1880s, there had been frequent disputes between Iran and England over the ownership of the islands. In all maps available before 1898 AD, these islands are part of the territory of Iran. A joint statement by the European Union and the 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 Cooperation Council (GCC) has urged Iran to relinquish control of three islands in favor of UAE - a country which was formed in 1971! 🤔 I am not sure why the incompetent and passive EU would get involved in this, but the timing could not have been more unfortunate. 🙌 Dr. Tirdad Daei had a very insightful post about this matter titled "𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽𝘀" earlier today. He argues that given the current geopolitical tensions in the region, these events questioning Iran's territorial integrity will only serve to strengthen the diabolic Islamist regime. Iranians are very patriotic and nothing will unite them more than efforts to take these territories from Iran. 💡 The regime obviously does not care about Iran or Iranians, as they have been stealing Iran's natural resources over the past 45 years to fund their terrorist proxies in the Middle East. Over 30% of Iranians live below the poverty line. 👊 Real change will have to come from Iranians inside Iran. These developments will provide an excuse for the regime to further repress Iranians and any movements to achieve personal, economic, religious and political freedoms. Long Live the Brave Patriots in Iran. 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗟𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲, 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻. پاینده باد ایران آزاد و متحد و ایرانیان وطن پرست #PersianGulf #خلیج_فارس #زن_زندگی_آزادی #WomanLifeFreedom #JinJiyanAzadî

In 1955, Syria and Egypt entered into a political union, which was perceived as a threat by Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. These nations invested billions of dollars in Syria, leveraging the Alawite minority community to propagate divisive narratives. They influenced public opinion by portraying Egyptians as descendants of the Pharaohs. Sensing growing discontent over the presence of Egyptian forces in Syria, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser decided to dissolve the union. He claimed that the Egyptian army left Syria in 1958 without engaging in any violent conflict. He said, how can an order use violence against my own Syrian brothers? Subsequently, an alliance between the Alawite minority and Christians emerged, exerting significant influence over Syrian politics. By 1963, the majority Sunni population had been systematically marginalized within the military. By 1967, Syrian Sunnis were politically disenfranchised and relegated to the status of second-class citizens. The 1979 Iranian Revolution marked a turning point. Iran encouraged Syrian President Hafez al-Assad to invest in Shiite militias in Lebanon, which could be deployed to suppress dissent within Syria. This strategy led to the establishment of Hezbollah, which operated under the guise of Islamic resistance. Unlike Egypt, which withdrew from Syrian affairs, Iran and Hezbollah entrenched themselves deeply in Syrian political and military structures. The consequences were catastrophic. Thirteen years of civil war ensued, leaving cities and villages in ruins and millions displaced. According to Human Rights Watch, between 2013 and 2024, approximately 150,000 individuals were extrajudicially executed on charges of political dissent. The overarching lesson is that ideological principles often diverge sharply from their practical application. The invocation of terms such as "Islam" or "Islamic" does not inherently reflect the values of the faith or its adherents. While Assad purported to lead an Islamic resistance, his actions in practice aligned more closely with authoritarian repression, turning Syria into a network of de facto concentration camps.

The Kurdish Dilemma in Syria: Autonomy and Global Power Struggles The future of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is at the center of intense debates in post-Assad Syria. As the interim government pushes for centralization under Turkish influence, the SDF faces critical challenges, including demands for disarmament and the loss of autonomy. Turkey, viewing the SDF as a threat to its security, pressures Damascus to dismantle Kurdish governance structures. However, the SDF holds significant leverage due to its control of resource-rich territories and its alliance with the United States. The outcome of this struggle will not only shape Syria’s future but also set a precedent for minority governance and regional stability in the Middle East. Resolving this dilemma requires international cooperation, dialogue, and a commitment to minority rights. Without such efforts, the risk of conflict escalation and regional instability remains high. #SyriaConflict #KurdishAutonomy #Geopolitics #MiddleEastStability #GlobalDiplomacy #SDF

🌍 Alienation from Slogans in the Syrian Conflict: A Path to Political Solutions In the context of the Syrian conflict, I want to explore the concept of alienation from slogans. This refers to the emotional and psychological detachment from the slogans raised in political movements, where individuals no longer believe in their sincerity, turning them into hollow tools that fail to achieve their intended goals. 💬 A question posed to me about the rise of HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) in northern Syria – "Will al-Jolani rule Syria?" – perfectly captures this alienation. It reflects a deep disconnection from the slogans once raised by both the government and opposition, driven by fear and shifting agendas. What began as the cry for "freedom and dignity" morphed into a justification for political maneuvering after the conflict escalated and regional powers intervened. As a result, extremist groups like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra thrived, and the revolution's slogans lost their meaning. ⚖️ On the other side, the pro-government base has faced its own existential alienation. Historical roots in Ba'athist rhetoric have given way to slogans like "resisting the conspiracy" and "protecting sovereignty," but these no longer align with reality. Corruption deepened, and the influence of Russia and Iran overshadowed Syrian sovereignty. ⚔️ The latest developments in the battlefront show HTS as a rising power. But can HTS transform into a democratic political entity? 🔄 For HTS to gain popular and international support, it would require a dramatic shift in its ideology, behavior, and relationship with both Syrian society and the international community. It must abandon its extremist stance and adopt a civil-state model that respects religion while ensuring political and legal freedom. Without this transformation, HTS risks alienating its base. 🌐 The international community should seriously consider the futility of continuing the war. Rather than further conflict, the focus should shift to a balanced international peace process that addresses the humanitarian crisis, fosters stability, and removes the scars of war. Only then can the fractured Syrian society rebuild, and issues like a unified Syrian flag become a point of consensus. 🕊️ In conclusion, the alienation from slogans in Syria is not just a political issue—it’s a deep societal challenge. It’s time for new, inclusive approaches to move the country forward.