RODY NASO’s Post

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗱: 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀  The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a seismic shift in the Syrian and regional landscape, presenting both opportunities and challenges for all involved parties. Here's a brief look at the winners and losers in this pivotal moment: 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 1. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲: After enduring over a decade of civil war and decades of authoritarian rule, Syrians now face a chance for a new beginning. However, this hope is tempered by risks of power vacuums and factional conflicts. 2. 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆: Leveraging its support for Islamist rebels, Turkey stands to gain strategically by curbing Kurdish aspirations and benefiting economically from Syria's reconstruction. 3. 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹: Assad’s fall weakens Iran and Hezbollah, strengthening Israel’s security. Proactive measures are being taken to manage potential chaos along the Syrian border. 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘀 1. 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗞𝘂𝗿𝗱𝘀: Autonomous governance in northeastern Syria may erode under a new regime influenced by Turkey-backed Islamist factions. 2. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗹𝗮𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆: A key pillar of Assad’s rule, the Alawites now face potential reprisals for their alignment with the regime. 3. 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮, 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗛𝗲𝘇𝗯𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗵: These strategic allies lost a critical foothold in Syria as resources are diverted to other challenges, such as Russia’s focus on Ukraine and Hezbollah’s diminishing influence after setbacks against Israel. The road ahead for Syria is full of uncertainty. While Assad’s departure signals an end to a brutal chapter, the challenges of rebuilding, reconciliation, and avoiding new conflicts remain formidable. Let’s hope this marks the start of a brighter future for the Syrian people. #Kadhum_Jabbar #Business #Consulting #Politics #Syria #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Russia #Iran #Turkey #Israel #Iraq

RSIS | S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies report on Syria’s trials ahead Factionalism in Syria’s Future Governance Both Bashar Assad and his father, Hafez Assad, relied on sectarian and ethnic divisions to consolidate power, thereby institutionalising factionalism. This factionalism – deeply influenced by external forces – exacerbates instability and fragmentation. Porous borders facilitate the influx of foreign fighters, weapons, and resources, fueling the proliferation of militant factions. Jihadist and Kurdish groups, entrenched within Syria’s fractured landscape, form the structural core of its factionalised conflict. These overlapping divisions underscore the immense challenges to achieving political cohesion and sustainable stability in a post-Assad era. The critical concern with these groups lie in their competing ideologies and divergent sub-interests. As the unifying goal of removing the Assad regime disintegrates, these ideological rivalries are likely to crystallise, transforming them into adversarial entities. Upcoming challenges A complete transition by HTS to civilian governance, severing its Islamist and jihadist ties, would likely alienate hardline elements within HTS ranks while provoking opposition from other factions, including Kurdish Islamist forces and remnants of ISIS. Such a shift risks internal fragmentation and external hostility, leaving HTS ideologically and militarily isolated. Corruption, deeply embedded in Syrian society since the Hafez Assad era and further entrenched under Bashar Assad, remains a systemic issue. Its pervasive nature is likely to endure, obstructing any incoming government’s efforts to establish a just and stable order and leaving the state structurally weakened from the get-go. The exposure of the Assad regime’s brutal prison system reveals a legacy of profound psychological trauma and systemic repression. This enduring trauma threatens societal cohesion and fosters long-term resistance, undermining prospects for stable governance. The “Islamist” Factor The “Islamist” factor is the most critical driver of possible confusion, external intervention, and internal conflict in Syria. The Muslim Brotherhood’s tenure in Egypt from 2012 to 2013 highlights the challenges Islamist movements face in transitioning from opposition to governance. Their experience, which led it to be banned in several Arab countries, reinforced fears among regimes of the destabilising potential of Islamist groups in power. This apprehension stemmed from concerns that such movements could embolden domestic Islamist factions, threatening regime survival. Additionally, Islamist groups often struggle to balance ideological commitments with the pragmatic demands of governance, limiting the feasibility of Islamist rule despite strong grassroots support. https://lnkd.in/gbra7hyk

conflict proposal part 2 Israeli side (act of decolonization) WEST BANK IS NOW  the 3rd country in the world with Jewsafter Usa and israel !!!!   • Change in the full proportional election system that favours colonizing and extremist parties in Israel   • Plan for 100% of the settlers to withdraw (without destroying buildings and infrastructure in place) taken over by the Palestinians   • On the few overpopulated settlements, land swaps to expand the Palestinian territory in proportion (like exchange done between france and Switzerland and Germany in many case )   • International assistance for the relocation of refugees to Israel   Set up tribunal for extremist on both side based on Gacaca in Rwanda in order to give a chance to the future   Long-term (20 to 25 years )   ·      Control the education and remove the religion part of it   • Promote exchanges between the two communities   • Condemn strong sentences for extremism on both sides (terrorist attacks and extremist settlers )   • Set Arabic as the second language in Israel with English   • Put Hebrew as the 2nd language in Palestine with English   • Mobilize Israeli Arabs as ambassadors for reconciliation   • Twinning town villages on both sides (friendship Franco-German plan in the 1960s)   • Organize exchanges (know each other )   • Slap hard on the extremists   Do not deviate in the long term   If we bring development and hope Tensions will reduce and we will slowly leave the place to resilience     Of course, many will criticize but just propose ... or should we continue like this , just counting the deaths of 2 “future fraternal “peoples ?.        

🌍 Alienation from Slogans in the Syrian Conflict: A Path to Political Solutions In the context of the Syrian conflict, I want to explore the concept of alienation from slogans. This refers to the emotional and psychological detachment from the slogans raised in political movements, where individuals no longer believe in their sincerity, turning them into hollow tools that fail to achieve their intended goals. 💬 A question posed to me about the rise of HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) in northern Syria – "Will al-Jolani rule Syria?" – perfectly captures this alienation. It reflects a deep disconnection from the slogans once raised by both the government and opposition, driven by fear and shifting agendas. What began as the cry for "freedom and dignity" morphed into a justification for political maneuvering after the conflict escalated and regional powers intervened. As a result, extremist groups like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra thrived, and the revolution's slogans lost their meaning. ⚖️ On the other side, the pro-government base has faced its own existential alienation. Historical roots in Ba'athist rhetoric have given way to slogans like "resisting the conspiracy" and "protecting sovereignty," but these no longer align with reality. Corruption deepened, and the influence of Russia and Iran overshadowed Syrian sovereignty. ⚔️ The latest developments in the battlefront show HTS as a rising power. But can HTS transform into a democratic political entity? 🔄 For HTS to gain popular and international support, it would require a dramatic shift in its ideology, behavior, and relationship with both Syrian society and the international community. It must abandon its extremist stance and adopt a civil-state model that respects religion while ensuring political and legal freedom. Without this transformation, HTS risks alienating its base. 🌐 The international community should seriously consider the futility of continuing the war. Rather than further conflict, the focus should shift to a balanced international peace process that addresses the humanitarian crisis, fosters stability, and removes the scars of war. Only then can the fractured Syrian society rebuild, and issues like a unified Syrian flag become a point of consensus. 🕊️ In conclusion, the alienation from slogans in Syria is not just a political issue—it’s a deep societal challenge. It’s time for new, inclusive approaches to move the country forward.

Kurdish forces and the path to peace Discussing the disarmament of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria prior to reaching a constitutional agreement that guarantees their political, cultural, and social rights is an unrealistic step from a political perspective. Such a move could result in severe repercussions for the stability of the region. The Kurdish forces, which form the backbone of the SDF, are not merely a military entity but represent a political identity and are an integral part of the balance of power in Syria. Any attempt to disarm these forces without providing clear and binding guarantees in the Syrian constitution would be an effort to marginalize the Kurds and weaken their negotiating position. Furthermore, disarming these forces without establishing clear security alternatives would create a security vacuum in the areas under their control, leaving them vulnerable to chaos or the resurgence of extremist groups. This scenario could replicate the security crises that Syrians and the international community have previously endured. Historical experiences also demonstrate that minorities who relinquish their means of self-defense before obtaining legal and constitutional guarantees often face marginalization or oppression. Therefore, any disarmament initiative must be part of a comprehensive agreement that includes recognition of Kurdish rights within the framework of a unified Syrian state, accompanied by international guarantees to ensure the implementation of such an agreement. Ultimately, the optimal solution lies in drafting a new constitution that acknowledges all components of the Syrian population and ensures their equal rights. Only then can discussions on disarmament take place as part of a broader political process aimed at building a new Syria founded on justice and citizenship.

"The 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 Islands" (جزایر تنب بزرگ، تنب کوچک و بوموسو) 👉 The Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Bu Muso islands have been part of the Persian empire since the 6th century BC. They have been under Iran's control since 1971 after the withdrawal of British forces from the 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 (خلیج فارس). 🗺️ From the 1880s, there had been frequent disputes between Iran and England over the ownership of the islands. In all maps available before 1898 AD, these islands are part of the territory of Iran. A joint statement by the European Union and the 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 Cooperation Council (GCC) has urged Iran to relinquish control of three islands in favor of UAE - a country which was formed in 1971! 🤔 I am not sure why the incompetent and passive EU would get involved in this, but the timing could not have been more unfortunate. 🙌 Dr. Tirdad Daei had a very insightful post about this matter titled "𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽𝘀" earlier today. He argues that given the current geopolitical tensions in the region, these events questioning Iran's territorial integrity will only serve to strengthen the diabolic Islamist regime. Iranians are very patriotic and nothing will unite them more than efforts to take these territories from Iran. 💡 The regime obviously does not care about Iran or Iranians, as they have been stealing Iran's natural resources over the past 45 years to fund their terrorist proxies in the Middle East. Over 30% of Iranians live below the poverty line. 👊 Real change will have to come from Iranians inside Iran. These developments will provide an excuse for the regime to further repress Iranians and any movements to achieve personal, economic, religious and political freedoms. Long Live the Brave Patriots in Iran. 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗟𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲, 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻. پاینده باد ایران آزاد و متحد و ایرانیان وطن پرست #PersianGulf #خلیج_فارس #زن_زندگی_آزادی #WomanLifeFreedom #JinJiyanAzadî

Why Does Hamas & Hezbollah Enjoy Such Widespread Support? If there is one question that has vexed me since 7/10 last year, it is how seemingly 'average' and educated people in the West, could have lined up behind Hamas (and lately Hezbollah) in this conflict with Israel, despite not being anti-Semitic nor generally anti-Israel. I think the answer is this - it is very difficult for people in the West, especially younger people, to understand (let alone accept), that values and a lifestyle that we enjoy and take for granted in the West, are NOT the same values that most Palestinians nor other Islamic fundamentalists aspire to. While not defending the so-called educated & 'average' Westerners' position taken in this conflict – it’s really difficult to accept that we don’t all want the same things in life (education for all, equal treatment of men and women, the ability to adopt a secular life etc) – BUT it’s a critical mistake to view Islamic fundamentalism through a Western liberal lens. We must all do a better job at informing those that traditionally adopt a more moderate & centrist position, that just because we in the West may subscribe to particular values & ideals, doesn’t mean that Hamas & other Islamic fundamentalists want the same things we do. So when one sees the innocent deaths in & the decimation of the Gaza strip, it’s so much easier to blame Israel as the cause of this death & decimation THAN to accept that the cause of this horror is Hamas (and by extension the majority of the Palestinians) in Gaza and lately Hezbollah for the destruction in Lebanon. This I believe is why it is Israel, that is continually pressed for ceasefires, to cease its ‘hostilities’, to ‘de-escalate’ the conflict and negotiate a peace settlement with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran – but how do you do that when NONE of these groups want peace AND their stated (and repeated) desire is to destroy Israel and kill all Jews. The conflict could have ended on 8/10 IF: 1. Hamas returned the hostages; 2. Hamas denounced terrorism and stopped launching rockets into Israel; & 3. Hamas' leadership surrendered We all know none of these 3 conditions were met - so how could Israel not respond? Hamas has repeatedly said they welcome death & that all Palestinians in Gaza are prepared to be 'martyred' in order to support their stated aim to destroy Israel. Hezbollah’s participation in this conflict was initiated by it – in ‘support’ of Hamas on 8/10 BEFORE Israel had even entered Gaza. When there is an understanding/appreciation that we do not all yearn for the same ideals, only then will there be a shift in the support given by many in the West for Hamas, Hezbollah, the Iranian theocracy and all other Islamic fundamentalist groups. Until then (while unjustified) Israel will continue to be seen as the aggressor and the root cause of all of this death and destruction. We must all try and and do whatever we can to explain this position to all that are open to listening.

https://lnkd.in/eHpuiq8y Syria Statement The Islamic Human Rights Commission affirms the fundamental right of both the Syrian and Palestinian people to resist oppression and tyranny and live a dignified existence. Justice and moral consistency demand that we cannot trade one people’s rights away to secure another’s. Yet once more we are being asked to choose between the two by an imperialist/Zionist hegemon that seeks to expand its nefarious influence in Muslim lands. Just as the US and its allies sought to destabilise Syria and destroy the integrity the state in 2011 by hijacking the uprising there, the same forces are using the opportunities presented by the genocide in Gaza to do so again. It is no coincidence that regime change has happened in Damascus while Gaza and its people are being pounded into oblivion in a genocide in which Syria serves as an important conduit for weapons to the resistance groups fighting Israel. The US-Zionist aim is to sever that supply line, switch fronts away from Israel and keep Muslims fighting each other to weaken resistance to the Zionist project. No one should be under any illusion that good ever comes out of regime change that arrives on the back of US-funded troop carriers. We need only look at the recent examples of Afghanistan, Sudan, Iraq and Libya to see that this kind of “revolution” brings neither liberation nor peace and security. We hope and pray that the latest upheavals do not fall prey to Western/Zionist designs and lead to the genuine empowerment of the Syrian people.

The inevitable has happened. Assad’s fall was always a matter of time. What else could be expected of a sectarian, authoritarian regime that presided over a state whose institutions rotted under corruption, disintegrated from within, and became a battleground for competing powers—Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the United States? As Ibn Khaldun warned in 1377, “Injustice brings about the ruin of civilization.” The Assad regime’s oppression, systemic corruption, and utter reliance on external powers transformed Syria into a fragmented proxy warzone. This collapse was not a shock but a culmination of long-standing decay. But make no mistake—the future looks grim. The choices between tyranny and terror is never a promising toward peace noe stability Both Islamism and authoritarianism poses an existential threat to Liberty, pluralism, and democracy. As the world watches, the choices for its future seem locked between competing forces of tyranny and terror, leaving little hope for those who still believe in the values of liberty and coexistence. The path forward must reject both sectarian despotism and Islamist extremism. Anything less will condemn Syria to remain a battleground, its people caught in a perpetual cycle of suffering and instability.

After fifty years of oppression, Syria can breathe freely. Or isn't it? In a stunning turn of events, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime has been overthrown after a swift 10-day offensive by rebel forces, culminating in the capture of Damascus. Assad and his family have reportedly fled to Moscow, where they have been granted asylum by Russia. (Source: https://lnkd.in/gbNfR3sh) This marks the end of over five decades of Assad family rule in Syria. The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 with pro-democracy protests, escalated into a brutal conflict involving multiple factions and international interventions. The war has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and displaced millions. Despite various efforts at diplomacy, the conflict persisted, leading to widespread devastation across the country. (Source: https://lnkd.in/gu2m6R_B) The recent rebel offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group that has attempted to distance itself from its jihadist origins. Turkey and the US-backed group's leader, a 42-year-old leader Abu Muhammed Al-Jolani is rumored to be involved in fighting the US forces in Iraq between 2003 and 2006. With key Assad allies like Iran and Russia preoccupied with other conflicts, the rebels seized the opportunity to advance rapidly. The fall of Damascus was met with celebrations, as citizens expressed relief and hope for a new beginning. International reactions have been varied. World leaders have condemned Assad's brutal regime and expressed support for the Syrian people's aspirations for peace and democracy. At this point, Syria is under the control of several movements that seem to be mixing with oil and water. These are Christians, Kurds, and Muslim Shia and Sunni movements backed by Iran, Turkey, the US, Russia, and other interests. Democracy without a strong leader is not something that naturally happens in the Middle East or anywhere. In my humble opinion, the situation adds to the instability of the region until proven otherwise. Have a great day!