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Into the unknown? Not with our latest economic outlook. Read our full write up of the current economic climate and what could be coming our way in 2025. Thomas Pugh

Unsure about what business decisions to make going into 2025? 🤯 Hear from our economist Thomas Pugh for predictions around growth, inflation and interest rates. ⬇️

More great insight from Thomas Pugh for you to consider and how they effect you and your business.

The latest economic outlook from RSM UK's economist Thomas Pugh. Read our full write up of the current economic climate and what 2025 may bring. #UKeconomy #economicoutlook

This summary by Thomas Pugh highlights a promising outlook for the UK economy in 2025. Key points include: Economic Growth: Projected to reach nearly 2%, driven by increased government spending and investment. Inflation: Expected to stay between 2.5% and 3%. Interest Rates: Likely to decrease gradually but remain higher than those in the eurozone or the US by the end of 2025. For manufacturers, this means potential growth opportunities due to higher demand for goods. However, they will need to manage rising costs and inflationary pressures carefully to maintain profit margins. Strategic planning and cost management will be essential.

📉 Irresponsible and Addictive Deficits: What Lies Ahead for the U.S. Economy? The U.S. economy has defied recession forecasts, growing at 2.6% in 2024 despite tighter monetary policy. One key reason? Persistent federal budget deficits—6.4% of GDP in FY 2024. These deficits have temporarily masked the pain of higher interest rates, but at what cost? With deficits now far exceeding levels seen during the Reagan era (without the excuses of war or high unemployment), the challenge lies in weaning off this "addiction." The path forward hinges on whether the government can reduce spending while implementing pro-growth policies without reigniting inflation. Explore our latest Monday Morning Outlook for deeper insights: https://lnkd.in/gZj4N9wj #Economics #Deficits #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #FirstTrust

After a few years of watching inflation and interest rates go up, and GDP flatline we might finally now be seeing the reverse. Read economist Thomas' full write up in our latest economic outlook - and spoiler alert - it actually contains some good news! https://lnkd.in/eKeHx-vw

On March 28, the Q4 2023 US GDP reading indicated that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%. Compared to international counterparts in Europe and the UK, US economic growth post-COVID has fared more favorably. GDP has grown at a faster rate than pre-COVID levels thanks to the continued strength of consumer spending, which has been supported by below average unemployment. #innovest #investments #economy #economics #financialmarket

The U.S. economic growth expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in the second quarter, driven by solid gains in consumer spending and business investment. However, inflation pressures appeared to be subsiding, leaving the door open for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The economic growth was boosted by inventory building and increased government spending, according to the Commerce Department‘s advance report on second-quarter GDP. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dCpBjt49 #USA #UnitedStates #Economy #EconomicGrowth #FED

Did the US government & FED created a crowding out effect on the private sector? It seems that at the US nor French Treasury department no one remembers the seminal paper published by Reinhardt, and Rogoff in 2011 that documented that economies tend to lose 1/3 of their real GDP growth potential when Debt to GDP ratio rises above 90% for more than 5Y. Indeed, US Net National Savings is a whopping negative $140bn as the Biden government has been on a spending frenzy for the past 4 years (deficit -5.5%), far exceeding household, corporate, and foreign savings. This Caligulan spending has pushed the US Federal Debt to 125% of GDP at a time when rates have quadrupled. As it was the case for emerging economies 30Y ago, that might be starting to crowd out the private sector that have been shedding jobs, Unemployment up 20%, triggering the feared Sahm Rule. If history is any guide, #growth should continue to decelerate along side #inflation, pushing #interest #rates downward while the curve steepen. The way I see it there are 2 good news; 1) the Fed has woken up and realized that they are arming the economy, and #M2YoY (liquidity) is starting to rise up 1.3% YoY 2) The #Sahmrule has historically only worked for the US and not for other countries (vive la France).