RUSI Europe’s Post

Update on sanctions, industrial burden on the Arctic, news about shipping along the Northern Sea Route and more in our monthly highlights from the Russian Arctic for March.

🇵🇭 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗦𝗲𝗮: 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮’𝘀 𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗟𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 🇨🇳 The 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗦𝗲𝗮 dispute has seen significant developments recently, particularly involving China and the Philippines. Tensions have escalated as China officially announced territorial baselines around the 𝗦𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗮𝗹, a key contested area claimed by both nations. This move is perceived as a direct response to the Philippines' new legislation aimed at reinforcing its maritime sovereignty, including the designation of sea lanes in alignment with international law under the 𝗨𝗡 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝘄 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗮 (𝗨𝗡𝗖𝗟𝗢𝗦). China's Coast Guard has increased patrols around the shoal, asserting its rights and accusing the Philippines of "𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴" and "𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀". These actions come despite a 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟲 ruling by an international tribunal rejecting China's expansive "nine-dash line" claims over the South China Sea, which Beijing continues to dismiss. Meanwhile, the U.S., a key ally of the Philippines, has reiterated support for the tribunal's decision, adding to the geopolitical stakes in the region. Both nations have used legal, diplomatic, and operational measures to assert their claims, further complicating regional stability. The 𝗦𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗮𝗹 remains a flashpoint, highlighting broader tensions involving other South China Sea claimants such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei.

Are we close to the end of modern human-made civilization due to international conflicts and the arms race for weapons of mass destruction is a complex and multifaceted issue ? While there are certainly significant challenges and risks associated with international conflicts and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, it's important to note that there are also efforts and initiatives aimed at promoting peace, disarmament, and international cooperation. Many nations and organizations work tirelessly to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction and to promote peaceful resolutions to conflicts. Additionally, advancements in diplomacy, international law, and global governance have contributed to reducing the likelihood of large-scale conflicts. It's crucial for individuals, governments, and international bodies to continue working towards peaceful resolutions and disarmament while addressing the root causes of conflicts. While the challenges are significant, it's also important to recognize the progress that has been made and the potential for positive change.

With less focus on Erdogan's "we are treating 1,000 Hamas members" slip – which the Turkish presidency website has yet to correct – I covered the ongoing saga of Greece-Turkey normalization:

✍️A new chapter on Ukraine`s path towards the EU is beginning now and the issue of fighting and preventing corruption is high on the agenda. 🤝Together with other international partners, the EUACI is preparing the Ukrainian team for upcoming meetings with the European Commission in preparation of the accession negotiations. Read more below 👇. 👩🎓We are also providing national and international expertise to the office of the Deputy Prime Minister for European and Transatlantic Integration. 📓We are assisting with technical support in drafting a Road Map for implementation of obligations under chapter 23 of the acquis. 📝We are providing expertise in analyzing and adjusting Ukrainian legislation to EU directives in the field of anti-corruption. And we will assist our partners in developing a methodology for mainstreaming anti-corruption across sectors. Busy months ahead for us at the EUACI.

🌐 #Corruption is a global problem that knows no borders and affects economies and the well-being of people around the world. 🇺🇦 #Ukraine, like many other countries, faces challenges related to the tracing and recovery of #assets illegally transferred abroad. 🤝 That is why international cooperation is becoming a key tool in this fight. ➡️ Scroll to the right to learn more about who Ukraine cooperates with within the framework of international cooperation and what difficulties our country faces in implementing the #UNCAC articles.

What are five oil tankers doing in a quiet Greek bay with no major ports? 🚢 It might be a case of the shadow fleet helping the avoidance of international sanctions, such as those imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The final result of my Masters' dissertation is a web-based visual solution that tracks all ship traffic in the Laconian Gulf, located in Greece 🇬🇷 . This open-source visualisation can be used and re-purposed by the intelligence community to support the fight against sanction avoidance and can be accessed in the following link: https://lnkd.in/dZF7hRgg Source code: https://lnkd.in/dswtPNyZ In addition to support breaking international sanctions, Ship-to-Ship oil transfers in the open ocean represent a threat to the marine environment as well as the local communities depending on a functioning ecosystem to earn a living (ie through fishing or tourism). An increased awareness of and efforts in preventing such activities can help prevent a large-scale environmental disaster. Special thanks to my thesis supervisor Jairo R. Montoya-Torres, Ph.D Universitat Oberta de Catalunya and the open-source tools that made this project possible: Leaflet and aisstream.io UK Ministry of Defence Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores, Unión Europea y Cooperación European Commission

It is with great pleasure that I share this research paper, a byproduct of our research project on the Republic of Cyprus after the EU sanctions on Russia, funded by the A.G Leventis Foundation Research Programme on Cyprus at @HO_LSE. Many thanks to Iannis Konstantinidis for this great cooperation. Also grateful to our research assistants Stavros PIPERIDIS and Savvas Theodoridis for their commitment to this project. 🌍Our research explores whether sanctions are binding #Cyprus closer to the EU (entrapment) or giving it a bit of breathing room to redefine its position on the global stage (emancipation). 🇨🇾 🔍 What we looked at: Small States and the EU literature Interviews with top officials and a public opinion survey (505 people across Cyprus) to capture both elite and public perspectives. 💡 Findings: Elites in Cyprus see sanctions as a step towards stronger ties with the West. The public? Not so much. There’s a preference for a “balanced” approach—leaning West but not cutting ties with Russia entirely. 🤔 Why does this matter? This divide between what elites and everyday people think has big implications. It could challenge political unity and strain Cyprus’s domestic decision-making. 🤔 Policy proposals and theoretical implications are also explored. 🔗 I’m excited to share this project’s insights, especially for anyone interested in small states navigating big geopolitical shifts! #Cyprus #EU #ForeignPolicy #Russia #smallstates

Discover how alliances with controversial entities shape geopolitical strategies. Russia's collaboration with Hezbollah reveals a complex web of international relations. Explore the intricate dynamics at play: https://okt.to/PqMydN

The violent conflict along the Ethiopia-Sudan border is destabilizing communities, militarizing trade routes, and displacing thousands. With a history of contested borders and recent escalations, the ability to perform #RapidDataAnalysis is crucial for informed decision-making in the region. 🌐 Explore interactive graphics on the Ethiopia-Sudan border conflict through a collaboration between the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office-funded and Chemonics UK-implemented XCEPT program and Chatham House, highlighting the importance of how innovative #DataDriven approaches can help mitigate conflicts and promote stability. Explore "Securitizing the Ethiopia–Sudan border: How cross-border conflict is shaping trade and the control of land": https://ow.ly/VqBt50Snx02