SA Commodities’ Post

🇨🇳 #China's #soybean #production and #imports remain stable According to the USDA FAS report, China's soybean production in MY 2024/25 will reach 19.9 mln tons due to higher yields and 9.95 mln ha of planted area, while imports are expected to reach 104 mln tons. Starting stocks are expected to reach 36.4 mln tons, up from 31.8 mln tons last season. According to the service's forecasts, the total volume of oilseed processing in 2024/25 will amount to 137.3 mln tons, which is higher than the previous season's estimate of 135.3 mln tons. Read more 👉 http://surl.li/xkncws

🔵💬 Market briefs in the morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Soybeans rise again this Friday (31st) in Chicago, after a week of pressure on prices. - Gains in wheat, corn, flour and oil contribute, but the central focus remains the climate in the corn belt. - The futures for both soybean meal and soybean oil rose almost 1% this Friday morning, as well as those for wheat and corn, acting as support and fuel for cereal prices in today's session. - The derivatives markets also had a week of intense volatility, highlighted by intense falls in soybean meal and good increases in soybean oil, both seeking to define their direction at this time. - Ukraine says it hit a fuel terminal in Port Kavkaz last night. The port located near the Kerch Strait is also used for transshipment of grain from small ships loaded in the shallow ports of the Azov Sea to the Panamaxes. - The $7.40/b zone for US wheat acted as a brake, causing a correction and a return close to the symbolic threshold of $7/b for September. It must be said that the advance was rapid and that the markets need a break. - To continue rising, wheat will need to be fed daily with new elements and, for the moment, the weather is the only catalyst. - The limited rains announced in southern Russia have been welcomed by financial operators, putting an end to almost daily purchases in recent weeks. - In Argentina, a delay in wheat plantings was reported, with 10% of the area planted compared to an average of 20% on that date. The USDA forecasts production for 24/25 of 17 Mt, slightly higher than the 15.91 Mt produced this year. - In the commercial sphere, the European Council yesterday adopted new customs tariffs on cereals imported from Russia and Belarus in order to stop the flow of imports from these countries. - All eyes are on Mexico, which is suffering one of its worst droughts. Although the USDA foresees a production of 25 Mt, we must be attentive to what happens next, which at the moment is causing a growing need for imports. - Technically, the Chicago corn market is looking for the July 2024 contract to find support in the $4.40 to $4.50 range, with upside resistance in the $4.75 to $4.85 range. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicated in its weekly report, released on Thursday (30), that the corn harvest reached 30.1% of the national surface, an increase of almost 2 p.p. in the weekly comparison. - The BCBA maintains its projections for Argentina's production unchanged, at 50.5 million tons of soybeans and 46.5 million tons of corn. - CFR China soybean prices bounced overnight. The cost of origination in Brazil continues to increase. Soybean processing factories in Brazil still have to cover part of July and August, and soybean supplies in key states are running out. - From a technical perspective for soybeans, a close below $12.00 in the July 2024 contract could trigger more selling as it would put the market below key moving averages. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello -- 📌📈

Global demand for U.S. soybeans has fallen sharply as international buyers remain discouraged by the strong dollar, slowing economic growth, and uncertainty over the direction of U.S. trade policy in an election year. But, a new report says we could see an increase in demand for U.S. soybeans as harvest season is set to begin within the next several weeks.

𝗜𝗚 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: Despite elevated stocks, imports of soybean in China rose +30% YoY to a new record at 12.1Mt in Aug'24 after import pace had stood at 5-year seasonal high since Jun'24. Slower pace of cargo discharge in July, caused by unfavourable weather and high stocks at coastal regions have been mentioned as an explanation for the unseasonal spike in August. Looking forward, the first estimates for Brazil’s next 2024/25 soybean crop came with an increase of +12% YoY compared to this year, suggesting more records in 2025! If you would like to get more information on this topic and the impact on the freight market, please reach out to us on: research@IfchorGalbraiths.com. #IfchorGalbraiths #Chartering #Exports #Maritime

Trump-sparked #soyoil rally pushes #soybeans towards weekly gain Nov 8, 2024 #Chicago soybean futures fell on Friday after reaching their highest in nearly a month in the previous session, on spillover strength from a rally in vegetable oil markets. #Corn and #wheat futures also edged lower, but all three were headed for weekly gains after days of turbulent trading following Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. president. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 0.6% at $10.19-3/4 a bushel at 0546 GMT after reaching $10.28 on Thursday. It was on track for a 2.6% weekly gain. CBOT corn was down 0.1% at $4.27 a bushel, but up 3% this week. Wheat was 0.1% lower at $5.70-3/4 a bushel, but up 0.5% from last Friday's close. CBOT December soyoil futures (BOZ24) rose to a four-month high on Thursday on solid export demand and expectations that Trump could impose tariffs on U.S. imports of used cooking oil, increasing demand for domestic oil. Speculative and technical buying kicked in for soybeans as prices rose on Thursday, accelerating gains, brokers said. Soyoil dipped on the CBOT on Friday but continued to rise on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DBYcv1), while #Malaysian #palm #oil extended its rally. The market has shrugged off concerns that a Trump-sparked trade war with China could harm U.S. farm exports, with traders saying sales are unlikely to be impacted until next summer's harvests and importers could in fact increase buying before Trump takes office in January. "We could have Chinese demand brought forward," said Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia, although he added that this would likely mean more sluggish demand next year. U.S. soybeans and corn are enjoying a solid export demand, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday reporting the latest in a string of corn sales. However, improving crop weather in Argentina and top exporter Brazil has eased production concerns. Separately, the USDA said U.S. farmers were likely to expand plantings of corn, while reducing soybean and wheat seedings for the upcoming marketing year.

As a shipbroker in the grain market, analyzing supply and demand of grains is crucial for understanding their impact on the shipping market. This helps us stay ahead, provide better service, and achieve competitive freight for our customers. # Grain Market Outlook: 2024/2025 Season 📊 USDA's June 2024 projections reveal intriguing shifts in the global grain landscape: 🌽 Corn: - Global production: 1220.5M tons (⬇️ 0.6% from 1228.1M) - US: 377.5M tons (⬇️ 3.1% from 389.7M) - Ukraine: 27.7M tons (⬇️ 10.6% from 31M) - Brazil: 127M tons (⬆️ 4.1% from 122M) - Argentina: 51M tons (⬇️ 3.8% from 53M) - World exports ⬇️ 3.7% to 191.7M tons - China's imports steady at 23M tons 🫘 Soybeans: - Global production: 422.3M tons (⬆️ 6.7% from 395.9M) - Brazil: 169M tons (⬆️ 10.5% from 153M) - US: 121.1M tons (⬆️ 6.9% from 113.3M) - Argentina: 51M tons (⬆️ 2% from 50M) - Ukraine: 10.7M tons (⬆️ 1.9% from 10.5M) - China imports: 109M tons (⬆️ 3.8% from 105M) 🔑 Key Takeaways: 1. Corn market potentially bullish due to tighter supplies 2. Soybean market likely bearish with significant production boost 3. Ukraine sees contrasting trends: corn ⬇️ 10.6%, soybeans ⬆️ 1.9% 4. Brazil strengthens position in both markets 5. Argentina sees mixed results: corn ⬇️, soybeans ⬆️ 6. China's steady corn demand vs. increasing soybean imports Weather, geopolitics, and trade policies remain crucial factors. How do you see these projections impacting the shipping market? #AgricultureMarket #GlobalTrade #CommodityOutlook #Corn #Soybeans

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its forecasts for Brazilian #soybean production. In addition to updating projections for the current harvest, the agency has included its first estimate for the 2024/25 season in the report. 🌱 📊 The USDA has revised this season's production estimate downward to 154 million tons from the previous 155 million, contrasting with market expectations of 152.6 million. For the 2024/25 harvest, it estimates production will increase to 169 million tons. 📈 🌍 Chinese soybean imports for the 2023/24 season are projected to remain stable at 105 million tons, with an expected increase to 109 million tons in the next season. Globally, the USDA anticipates the soybean harvest will reach 422.26 million tons in 2024/25. 💼 Seeking expert insights into the commodities market? Reach out to SA Commodities and let us guide you in making informed decisions for your business. #GlobalShipping #InternationalTrade #AgriExports #ShippingWorldwide #COMEX #LogisticaGlobal #LogisticaInternacional #TransporteDeCarga #Importacao #Exportacao #Commodities #Agribusiness

The USDA announced its weekly export inspections at 10:00 CST for the week ending 10/10. This is one day later than usual due to Columbus Day. #Corn export inspections were reported at 430K metric tons, a 517K decrease from the previous week's report of 947K. #Soybeans had a reported export number of 1.57 million, a 49K decrease from the previous week's 1.62 million. Lastly, #Wheat exports came in at 371K, a 8K increase from the previous week's 363K. The biggest mover this week was Corn, whose export numbers dropped down to less than half of the previous week's report exports. Soybeans stayed high, and Wheat saw a modest increase. What do you think of these numbers?

🔵💬 Market briefs in the morning by Esteban Moscariello: - Chinese buyers purchased eight cargoes of new crop soybeans from Brazil and one cargo from the Pacific Northwest (US) for delivery in November. - Argentina recorded significant exports, with 609,200 tons of soybean meal and 33,160 tons of soybean oil. - India purchased three cargoes of crude palm oil and one of olein for October, while other countries such as Colombia and Guatemala are looking for soybean meal for the coming months. - As US farmers finish the soybean harvest, Brazil and Argentina are receiving rain in their main producing areas, which could impact future production. - Soybean export prices in Brazil, as well as soybean oil and meal spreads in South America, remain firm, with active business in China. - Soybean crushing in China rose to 1.54 million tonnes last week, with large soybean imports projected for October, November and December. - The ECB has announced a further cut of -0.25 points, placing rates at 3.25%. This is the third reduction since June and the first time in 13 years that cuts have been made in two consecutive months. - The European Central Bank's focus has shifted from controlling inflation, which is considered under control, to protecting economic growth, which is steadily deteriorating. - Despite a recent cut of -0.50 points in the US, the Federal Reserve's interest rate remains higher than the European one, at 4.75%. - The fall of the euro/dollar to the lowest level since August (1.0810) has generated support for EU cereals, which see a slight recovery in prices. - Wheat in Russia faces uncertainties regarding exports and the winter harvest. Corn on Euronext follows the trend of wheat, affected by slow harvests in France due to bad weather. - The rapid progress of the harvest in the United States remains the main bearish element of the market. However, the current good demand for American cereals allows the market to maintain a certain firmness. - On Thursday (17), funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, 4,000 of corn, 6,000 of soybeans, 2,000 of soybean meal and 4,000 of soybean oil. ➡️ By Esteban Moscariello -- 📌📈

Brazil, Argentina, and China were the top 3 countries with the highest ending stocks of 'Meal, Soybean' in 2024. Together, they account for 40.19% of the global total of 14k (1000 MT). Follow @globalsavors for more. #marketdata #foodcommodities #agricommodities #markets #import