SA Commodities’ Post

Will Brazil "run out of soybeans" for export in the next 45 days? Recent data suggests a potential concern. Brazil's soybean shipments last week were 1.47 MMT, down from 1.90 MMT the previous week. Projections indicate August exports could reach 8.45 MMT and September between 6.25-6.75 MMT. With 90.6% of USDA's projection already committed, the current export pace may deplete the country's surplus in a month and a half. IF we use CONAB’s production estimate of 147.4 MMT with exports of 92.4 MMT, the current pace of exports is too hot and the country’s exportable surplus could be exhausted within a couple of months. On the flip side, using USDA's production estimate of 153 MMT shows exports slightly ahead of the pace needed to meet their 98 MMT projection. The scenario raises questions about Brazil's soybean export sustainability for the coming weeks. Stay tuned for further updates on this evolving situation by trying a free trial of AgResource Plus. Check out our web site for more information on this and other products. #Brazil #Soybeans #Exports #Agriculture #Trade

The U.S. #soybean market anticipates combines cutting record yields, adding to substantial old crop ending stocks. Countries like #Brazil, #Argentina and #Ukraine are gearing up to boost soybean production, which may impact our global export competitiveness. Will we meet USDA's ambitious targets for exports (+9%) and domestic crush (+6%) to give this soybean market a chance? Find out more in my recent Terrain quarterly report: https://lnkd.in/gPEmcFkB

🟢 This week, #MATIF wheat suffered significant losses under pressure from the USDA's WASDE report which, while confirming the dire state of EU wheat and surprising grain markets by cutting its projections for US production and stocks, raised the estimate for the new wheat crop in Australia and Ukraine but kept the crop of Canada, Argentina and Russia unchanged. 🟢 USDA's FAS forecasts that European Union wheat exports will fall to their lowest levels in three years during the 2024/25 season, especially as France, the EU's main wheat exporter, will see a significant drop of 20 % of #production, at the lowest level in nearly four decades. 🟢 The expected decrease in #wheatexports from the EU represents a significant change in the global grain market, with effects likely to be felt in several regions. As the EU faces reduced production and increasing competition, importers may have to diversify their supply strategies, potentially altering long-standing #trade relationships. ✅ Stay updated on these 📈 📉 developments, as they will play a crucial role in shaping 🌏 global wheat trade - link in the comments. 📩 Contact us: office@agriportal.ro #Wheat #Trade #WheatPrice #Agriculture

Are you interested in discovering how we can support you and your company with our data, analyses, and #reports spanning #Agribusiness and several others that influence Brazilian #port logistics? Get in touch with us today: intelligence.agency@wilsonsons.com.br #shipping #marketintelligence

TOP NEWS Agricultural Commodities > IGC cuts global wheat crop outlook on poor EU harvest > GRAINS-CBOT soy hits fresh lows on South America weather, Brazil-China deals > Argentina's soy planting reaches full speed, first plants show good condition > COLUMN-China's nod to Brazilian sorghum may serve as test for US relations -Braun > Brazil, China close to signing pork offal export protocols, sources say > Angry farmers block access to Bordeaux port to up pressure on French government > Deere's profit beat overshadows tepid 2025 outlook, shares rise > Poland, Baltic States call for customs duty on Russian fertilizers > Ivory Coast takes steps to control cashew exports and help local processors > Brazilian meatpacker JBS agrees to invest $2.5 bln in Nigeria, build six factories > Arabica coffee hits fresh 13-year high near $3 per lb > South Korea’s MFG buys up to 70,000 T corn in private deal, traders say > NZ's a2 Milk expects first dividend in February, lifts FY25 growth forecast > ICE canola Jan futures break below $600 > VEGOILS-Palm extends losses amid China tariff fears, weak demand

The European Commission cut its forecast for the 2024 European Union wheat crop to a four-year low amid a projected bigger decline in planted area than previously expected. The commission now forecasts EU wheat production at 120.2 MMT, down 600,000 MT from its initial outlook. That would be the smallest wheat crop since 2020. Despite the lower output, the commission raised its 2024-25 wheat ending stocks forecast by 500,000 MT to 20.4 MMT, due to an increase in expected imports. It left the 2024-25 EU wheat export forecast at 31 MMT, which would be unchanged from its outlook for this year. https://lnkd.in/dCK_xAFB

Brazil is a significant global supplier of grains, and any fluctuations in our extensive production can impact those commodities prices, trade flows, and even agricultural growth in other countries. While Brazil may not achieve the record-breaking production and exports seen last year, we anticipate substantial figures that underscore our continued importance in this sector. March marked a particularly strong month this year, driven by soybean exports, and we expect a similar volume to continue into April. As we move into the middle of the year, Brazil will begin exporting corn, with projections suggesting numbers on par with those seen in 2022. Are you interested in discovering how we can support you and your company with our data, analyses, and #reports spanning this sector and several others that influence Brazilian #port logistics? Get in touch with us today 😉: intelligence.agency@wilsonsons.com.br #grains #grainexport #export #soybeans

Have you heard about our innovative Market Intelligence Platform, WS Connect? Explore our dynamic statistics and reports to elevate your strategy, capture opportunities, and make decisions with comprehensive market data. Contact us and see how WS Connect can transform your business ➡️ intelligence.agency@wilsonsons.com.br #MarketIntelligence #PortLogistics #Agribusiness #CommoditiesReports

Essential for the Brazilian economy, the grains sector has stood out for its significant contribution to the Gross Domestic Product - GDP, exports and job creation. Its production, with an emphasis on commodities such as soybeans and corn, is fundamental to the national agricultural base and represents a substantial share of Brazil's agricultural production, boosting the trade balance and promoting regional development. More than 37 million tons of grains, including imports and exports, with emphasis on soybeans, were handled through Brazilian ports in the first quarter of this year. Although projections for 2024 indicate a decrease in exports of this commodity due to reduced productivity in planting areas and unfavorable weather conditions, the accelerated pace of soybean harvesting in the Center-West of Brazil contributed to the expressive growth of this commodity's exports during this period. Do you want access to even more detailed analysis about the grains sector?  Access our WS Connect portal or contact our team of experts by email at intelligence.agency@wilsonsons.com.br. #wilsonsons

On January 23, 2025, Argentina's Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, announced a temporary reduction in export duties on key agricultural products, including soya, wheat, barley, corn, sorghum, sunflower. This measure, effective from January 27 to June 30, 2025, aims to provide relief to the agricultural sector amid challenges such as drought and declining international commodity prices. Additionally, export duties on regional economies will be permanently eliminated. To summarize, the export duties will be reduced as follows: - Soya decreases from 33% to 26% - Soya by-products decreases from 31% to 24,5% - Wheat, barley, sorghum and corn decrease from 12% to 9,5% - Sunflower decreases from 7% to 5% The reduction in export duties is expected to have a significant impact on soybean prices and could accelerate the inflow of foreign currency. Economists estimate that the initial fiscal cost of this reduction is approximately US$1.4 billion, representing about 0.28% of the projected 2025 GDP. For producers, this translates to an additional income of around US$1.75 billion. While the measure provides some financial relief to producers, there is concern that the temporary nature of the reduction may lead to a surge in soybean sales before the June 30 deadline, potentially causing a drop in prices received by producers. Analysts also note that the impact on other crops like corn and wheat may be more limited. Overall, this policy change is seen as a positive development for the agricultural sector, offering much-needed support during a challenging period.   #Agriculture #Argentina #Export #ParanaRiver #Soya #Wheat #Corn #Barley #MaritimaHeinlein