APARTMENTS ARE BECOMING A SCARCE COMMODITY IN GERMANY 📈🏡 Good news for anyone who already owns property in Germany: The Munich-based Ifo Institute expects an unstoppable downturn in residential construction in Germany over the next few years. The lack of supply will lead to higher rents and prices. According to the study, the number of newly built apartments could fall to just 175,000 in 2026. This represents a drop of more than 40% compared to the completions of around 300,000 flats in 2022 and 2023, with the figure expected to fall below 200,000 by 2026, according to the Ifo Institute. One decisive factor is the excessively high construction costs in Germany. According to Ifo, the outlook for the rest of Europe remains uncertain. The European construction sector is expected to contract overall. Construction volume is likely to fall by 4% in 2023 and 2024. The residential sector, once again, is expected to be hit harder than average: Investment in new residential buildings is projected to fall by 18.2% over the period, while civil engineering is expected to grow by 6.1%. Euroconstruct forecasts moderate growth from 2026 onward, including in residential construction. #skjervengroup #newsletter #germanrealestate #economy #finance #investment #buyersmarket
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Québec's Industrial Market: 2023-2024 Insights As we progress through 2024, Québec’s industrial real estate market continues to show resilience and strategic importance in Canada. Key metrics such as transaction volumes, cap rates, rental rates and vacancy rates have seen notable shifts, providing crucial insights for investors and stakeholders. Transaction Volumes & Cap Rates In 2023, transaction volumes hit record highs, driven by demand for logistics and distribution centers. However, 2024 has seen a 15% decrease year-to-date, largely due to rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. Cap rates have also risen by 20 basis points, reflecting a shift in investor expectations within a tougher financing environment. Vacancy & Rental Rates Despite a slight increase in vacancy rates—from 2.1% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024—demand remains strong. This tight market has pushed rental rates up by 8% year-to-date, with prime locations experiencing even higher growth, emphasizing the premium on quality industrial space. Absorption & New Construction Absorption rates in 2024 have dipped by 10% compared to 2023 as new supply enters the market. Construction remains robust, particularly in Greater Montréal, but rising costs are placing pressure on developers and rental prices. Looking Ahead Québec’s industrial market is expected to remain strong through 2024, but shifting dynamics, particularly interest rates and economic conditions, are shaping new opportunities. Investors should focus on properties aligned with long-term trends in logistics, e-commerce, and sustainability.
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Given the shifts in the German residential market, we want to share our latest update with you. Rents are rising, and construction is declining, indicating strong price growth in the long run. Download the summary to see the latest supply forecasts. https://hubs.li/Q02xXFgC0
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Germany residential construction declines, rate cuts have yet to help Despite a housing crisis in many of its cities, Germany’s new residential housing continues to decline. Munich-based economic research group ifo said that the interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have not yet had any impact on Germany’s residential housing. Instead, interest rates on loans for households for residential construction remain high, the group said. In ifo’s September survey of residential construction, 52.9% of building and construction companies reported that order shortages worsened, compared with August. The housing market is a key consumer of chemicals, driving demand for a wide variety of chemicals, resins and derivative products, such as plastic pipe, insulation, paints and coatings, adhesives and synthetic fibers, among many others. #ICIS #petrochemicals #chemicals #resins #Germany #housing #construction
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Tackling Germany’s Housing Challenge 🏘️ Germany’s Growing Housing Shortage In major cities, housing demand continues to outstrip supply, leaving countless families struggling to find homes. Meanwhile, smaller towns and rural areas have over 2 million vacant homes, according to German Federal Building Minister Klara Geywitz. While encouraging relocation to these areas is a promising step, the real game-changer is volumetric modular building solutions, which are a faster, more sustainable, and cost-effective way to address the housing challenge. The core of this challenge is primarily in the financial and political approach. It`s not that simple to manage/change it, but we remember that all complicated things consist of more minor and much more manageable elements. I and my colleagues genuinely believe that technological answers exist - and meet the main requirements: 🔹 High quality 🔹 Speed and Efficiency 🔹 Flexibility and Mobility (look at Dutch experience) 🔹 Cost-Effective Housing 🔹 Sustainability Yep, we talk again about volumetric modular construction. Developers, investors, and policymakers can benefit from working with reliable modular building manufacturers who: ✅ Deliver customizable, high-quality housing. ✅ Provide scalable solutions to meet growing demands. ✅ Prioritize sustainability and efficiency. Germany’s housing crisis requires innovative financing and construction solutions. By combining the government’s rural revitalization initiatives with the capabilities of volumetric modular construction, we can build modern, affordable, and sustainable housing across the country. #ModularConstruction #VolumetricModularBuilding #HousingSolutions #VolumetricModularBuildingSolutions
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It's excellent to see that the start of new builds is on the rise across Australia. It's a really positive trend we need to see continuing and ideally increasing if we are ever going to meet demand for housing. As property owners, investors and developers it is our responsibility to ensure that property in our portfolios are being put to the highest and best use so that more new builds can begin. Infill housing in existing suburbs ensures we are using land to its full potential, increasing density to help meet housing demand. Can you subdivide? Increase density from 1 house to 2, 3 or 6? Do you know your portfolio's full potential?
“Building activity is a key performance indicator for the health of the broader economy. We know when the building and construction industry is strong, so too is the economy," Denita Wawn. Read the full statement below. https://lnkd.in/gf5WfY6C
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Good Morning from #Germany, where housing prices continue to climb despite the econ downturn. Prices for new builds saw a significant increase in Oct, rising by 0.82% MoM. The Europace index for newly built homes is now close to a record. The situation for existing homes is more mixed: prices are rising sharply in cities like Cologne, Munich, and Berlin, but dipping slightly in places like Hamburg, Frankfurt, and Stuttgart. Overall, however, existing homes have also become more expensive. https://lnkd.in/dFiRAm5h
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German housing crisis deepens as permit numbers plunge The ongoing crisis in Germany’s residential construction market shows no signs of abating, with recent figures from the Federal Statistical Office painting a bleak picture. (Read more below). Felix Pakleppa ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Klaus Wohlrabe #Baugenehmigungen #Wohnbau #Wohnungsbau
German housing faces deepening crisis as permits plummet
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2023 wasn’t great, was it? There’s no downplaying it, market conditions, especially in Q3 and Q4 were incredibly tough for many businesses, especially those in the construction supply chain. The good news that I took from this afternoon’s RIBA Journal 2024 Economics Panel is that it’s over, and the horizon looks a lot clearer. I say ‘looks’ as I’m terrified of jinxing things. As Allan Wilen of Glenigan pointed out, we’ve had several seismic shocks in the broader economy over the past decade-plus, all culminating in UK construction activity contracting by 20% last year. It won’t happen overnight, but the latest stats show that the sector will bounce back - with 7% this year and a further 8% in 2025. Glenigan have been pretty accurate with their predictions in recent years, so let’s hope that continues. Obviously, some parts of the sector will take longer to recover following the announcement of a General Election yesterday, public sector projects are one obvious one that will be impacted by purdah and then the policies and budgets of whichever party wins. One sector that could do with a quick upturn is private housing. Not just because we still have that 300,000 homes per year target hanging over us, but because of the impact that market has on the health of ‘small and medium’ architecture practices. I was fascinated with Adrian Malleson’s work in taking us through RIBA’s latest ‘Future Trends’ survey results, as well as members’ performance last year. Mirroring other parts of construction, and conforming to the laws of double jeopardy (somewhat), it appears the ‘big boys’ have fared better and are set to move the quickest to capitalise on the upcoming growth opportunities presented. One predictable, if troubling, point is that London is still providing a disproportionate amount of work to RIBA members - one hopes this doesn’t reflect broader investment patterns into the Construction sector in the UK. The discussion that followed was lively and interesting, but I think the final word probably deserves to go to Malleson’s summary of the situation: · Architects’ outlook is improving · Design work may already be through the worst of it · Supply issues and project cost inflation either easing or passed · The overseas market is healthy, for those that can serve it · We still need more and better buildings - notably in housing and social infrastructure · The climate emergency isn’t going away All in all, a great event and one that left me feeling more optimistic than when I went into it - particularly seeing the post-election spike on the graph below. Might there be a repeat in 2024? #RibaEconomicsPanel #ConstructionData #GeneralElection
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Sweden will need just over 52 300 new homes annually between 2024 and 2033, according to a new assessment from Boverket, the Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning. This is 15 000 fewer homes than in the assessment published last year. Our estimate is that about 30 000 new homes will be needed annually during this period, writes Pernilla Johansson. The level of uncertainty is high, but Boverket's downward revision will hold back housing construction even though economic conditions have improved.
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