Skjerven Group’s Post

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗿𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗚𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 Recent data from Germany's ifo Institute shows and reconfirms a troubling trend: 13.8% of local retail businesses in Germany now fear for their survival. In 2023, the number was at 10.3%. This is part of a general trend of an overall decline in local businesses, resulting in empty city centers becoming more common and local shops closing at increasing rates. When I visit Stadt Schweinfurt, the city closest to my hometown in Germany, I see firsthand how empty storefronts create a domino effect, impacting the entire community. There are already some positive and creative steps being taken by local initiatives like Schweinfurt Fabulous. Of course, there are many reasons why this decline is happening, and they can vary based on the local situation. But to improve the situation, we need to change our way of dealing with this. The problem isn't just about individual businesses – it's about broken local ecosystems. And by ecosystem, I don't just mean nature – I mean the entire network that keeps a community thriving: businesses, people, culture, infrastructure, and the relationships between them all. We need to stop treating symptoms and start healing this complex community ecosystem as a whole. This requires a new way of looking at the purpose of a business and the role the local government plays in it: a multi-stakeholder approach that considers not just the well-being of a company and its shareholders, but the entire community ecosystem – from employees and customers to local partners, society, and yes, the natural environment too. And ways of measuring these impacts and improving them. This then can help to create true sustainability of the overall ecosystem. Local communities and local governments in Japan and Germany should join forces for pushing this movement further. Find the ifo study results and announcement here: https://lnkd.in/gdQJ_USF #LocalBusiness #EconomicDevelopment #CommunityGrowth #UrbanDevelopment #BusinessStrategy #Innovation #Sustainability

Newsletter 📰: INVESTMENT MARKET: PRIME YIELDS ARE RISING IN BERLIN Prime yields on the Berlin investment market have risen significantly in a twelve-month comparison - most strongly in the office segment: by 0.65 percentage points to 4.4% (fourth quarter of 2021: 2.6%). Logistics properties also rose by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4% (3.2%) and commercial properties were only just behind at 4.3% (2.8%). With a transaction volume of €600 million in the first quarter of 2024, the market lost 14% compared to the already weak first quarter of 2023. However, Grossmann & Berger expects the mood to brighten over the course of the year and more movement in the market. With a turnover of 2.7 billion euros last year, the Berlin investment market clearly missed the ten-year average (2014-2023) of 7 billion euros. And looking at the €600 million that Grossmann & Berger has added for the first three months of 2024, the downward trend looks set to continue. This is because the EUR 600 million is another 14% below the turnover of the already weak first quarter of 2023. The share of international investors is 25%. #skjervengroup #newletter #primeyields #berlinrealestatemarket

Did you know that Berlin was thriving economically in the 18th century? In 1750, Berlin's GDP per capita was 30% higher than the German average. Let's explore why and how we come to that estimate... 👇 During the 18th century, Berlin began to pull ahead. Why? Under Frederick the Great, Berlin became a hub of cultural, political, and intellectual activity. Investments in infrastructure and education likely played a key role. The Enlightenment was in full swing.🏛️📚 But how do we even estimate historical GDP per capita for Berlin and other regions, given the lack of direct economic data? That’s where machine learning comes in. We leverage biographical data of historical figures (e.g., birthplaces, occupations, etc.) to model GDP per capita. And this works really well: We are able to predict income levels with 90% out-of-sample accuracy for the past 700 years. 📈 What makes this approach work? Historical figures tell us a lot about the level of economic development. They are both a product of and a contributor to regional prosperity. For example, Berlin’s rise attracted talent, which in turn fueled its economic and cultural growth. 🌍 The result? A dataset that quadruples the availability of historical GDP per capita estimates across Europe and North America. And trends like Berlin’s 18th-century growth come into sharp focus. But Berlin’s growth wasn’t linear. By the 1790s, a crisis in the textile industry hit hard.🧵Textiles, employing 25,000 people, were the city’s largest sector. Downward wage pressures and unemployment led to strikes. Want to know more? 🧐Check out our augmented data on historical GDP per capita levels in our interactive app: https://lnkd.in/df2JgB3u (Be patient, it takes a bit of time to load) If you want to read all the details about our work, you find our paper published in PNAS here: https://lnkd.in/dS83v9HS

🔍 Our latest European Cities Consumer Chartbook 📈 Which European cities have the highest spending power, and how will that change in the future? Learn more about our European city service: https://okt.to/6F7KaD Using our estimates of disposable income, households of Zurich and London currently have the highest spending power. This effectively represents spare earnings that consumer-orientated companies can tap into. While Warsaw and Sofia have lower spending power, these markets are forecast to achieve the fastest growth in available disposable income over 2024-50. Stockholm and Oslo look favourable based on both current levels and future growth—making them strong candidates for investment. #CitiesEconomies #Consumers #Forecasts

🔍 Our latest Nordic cities outlook 📈 Which Nordic cities have the best medium-term growth prospects? Learn more: https://okt.to/KTvAyw The major Nordic cities are set to be the key drivers of economic growth in the region over the next five years. Copenhagen will lead our GDP growth ranking while Stockholm and Oslo are also set to be strong performers. For Helsinki, Gothenburg, and Malmö the outlook is less positive as factors such as higher unemployment rates and a less favourable industrial mix will weigh on growth prospects. #nordics #CitiesEconomies #forecasts

The fall and rebound of average establishment size in West Germany https://lnkd.in/dZBJNgau "There is a positive association between aggregate productivity and the average establishment size. …results imply that #monopsony power incentivizes incumbent establishments to downsize and new establishments to enter, which reduces both the average establishment size and aggregate productivity." #LaborMarkets orig https://lnkd.in/dqPCwAYa

Not only is Copenhagen a great place to live, we also expect it to be one of Europe's fastest-growing economies over the next 5 years.

Why I wouldn't move to Düsseldorf again: Living costs: It's getting really bitter for tenants at the moment. They are now also competing with those who would have bought their own home at other times. And as long as they have not moved into their own four walls, they are occupying one of the scarce rental flats. As a result, the supply of housing on the already chronically competitive rental market has collapsed. According to figures from the IW Housing Index, 27 per cent fewer rental flats were on offer in Düsseldorf in the second quarter of 2024 than just two years previously. Despite stable purchase prices, rents are therefore continuing to rise sharply - with no end in sight. Drugs: addicts get their fix in broad daylight, even near the upmarket ‘KÖ’ shopping mile Racism (also among non-German ethnicities): Due to the events of the last 10-12 years in Africa and the (Middle) East, there are many refugees in the city. And the people here are fed up. The foreigners who don't have a good job notice this very strongly. On the other hand, if you have a problem with other cultures, you shouldn't move to Düsseldorf either: there are few typical Germans. Politics: Düsseldorf doesn't do politics for its residents, but more for its status as a supposedly international cosmopolitan city. It's a mess here, sorry. Weather: in recent years it has become unbearably humid in Düsseldorf in summer, plus the sealing of surfaces. Very unpleasant, even when you are from North Africa, Turkey or other warm countries. Environment: Due to the nearby airport in the north, you can often smell the paraffin right into the city centre - apart from the aircraft noise, this is not healthy. The exhaust fumes from diesel or oil-fuelled ships on the Rhine also often drift into the city centre. Taxes: Düsseldorf levies comparatively high taxes (property transfer tax, trade tax, etc...) P.S. no, i do not like Cologne either ;-) #living #germany #duesseldorf #housing #poverty #nrw #rheinland #flats #money #Düsseldorf #rent #drugs

🚀 Explosive Growth in European Self-Storage Market: Record Investments and Rising Demand in 2024! 📈 The European self-storage market has shown remarkable growth and resilience in 2024. Investment in the sector is expected to exceed €1.2 billion this year, surpassing previous record levels. Occupancy rates have also risen to 79%, reflecting the strong demand for self-storage solutions. Key Highlights: 🔹 Investment Volumes: Expected to reach over €1.2 billion in 2024. 🔹 Occupancy Rates: Average rate across Europe increased to 79% this year. Trends and Insights: 🔹 Increasing Investment: Institutional investors and REITs are heavily investing in the sector due to its stable cash flows and cost-efficient operations. 🔹 Growing Demand: Urbanization and lifestyle changes are driving the need for self-storage, resulting in high occupancy rates. 🔹 Market Expansion: The supply of self-storage space is set to exceed 14 million square meters by the end of 2024, with 240 new developments in progress. Exciting times ahead for the European self-storage market with record investments and rising demand in 2024! #SelfStorage #EuropeanMarket #InvestmentTrends

"Atlanta’s labor market will remain healthy due to its high concentration of IT, distribution and life sciences companies; service-producing industries; e-commerce fulfillment centers; institutions of higher education; healthcare providers; and headquarters operations." Jeffrey Humphreys gives an economic outlook for 2025 here: https://lnkd.in/gbit8TCf #georgia #georgiatrend #atlanta #atlantaeconomy #ATLeconomicoutlook