Steve Matthews’ Post

Jobs report came out and beat expectations by a significant margin. Unemployment came in at 3.8%. What does this mean for rates? Well, if inflation starts to tick up then we're looking at rate cuts being pushed out or potentially having another rate hike put back on the table. "US payrolls rose in March by the most in nearly a year and the unemployment rate dropped, pointing to a strong labor market that’s powering the economy." "Nonfarm payrolls advanced 303,000 last month following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%." "Treasury yields rose and S&P 500 index futures pared gains while the dollar moved higher. Traders trimmed bets on the odds the Federal Reserve will lower rates in June." #rates #jobs #inflation #economy #cuts https://lnkd.in/gMtQJHwR

Another hot reading from the US labour market 🥵 🔁I feel like a broken record but yet again the US labour market has outstripped expectations. Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 303K today, far above the 212K in another sign the jobs market is keeping resilient despite higher rates.👊 The unemployment rate also came in lower than expectation at 3.8%, falling from last month’s 3.9% while hourly earnings do not surprise at 4.1%, lower than last month’s 4.3%. 📉Markets have scaled back their expectations for a rate cut in June to 53%, having been 60% before the release of the data. This is not a report which brings the Fed closer to the confidence policymakers seek. ❌ Hot.

Hiring slowed significantly in July The U.S. economy added far fewer jobs than expected in July, in the latest sign of a weakening labor market. Nonfarm payrolls totaled 114,000 last month, the Labor Department said Friday, compared to the 185,000 forecast by economists, and well under June's downwardly revised 179,000. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, unexpectedly jumped 0.2 percentage point to 4.3%. The report underscores concerns expressed by the Federal Reserve this week that the labor market now posed as much of a risk to the economy as inflation, ramping up bets on a September rate cut. Friday's report also showed average hourly earnings rose 3.6% in July from a year earlier —the smallest gain since May 2021. New jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 249,000, the most in almost a year, per a Thursday report. #sluggish #unemployment #nothiring

Jobs. A strong June number but some previous revisions take a bit of the sting out of it. Might this help the case for a fall rate cut? "the jobless rate rose to the highest since late 2021" "Nonfarm payrolls rose by 206,000 and job growth in the prior two months was revised down by 111,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 190,000 increase." "The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% as more people entered the labor force, and average hourly earnings cooled." "A sustained slowdown in hiring, combined with a recent moderation in inflation, bolsters bets that Fed policymakers will lower interest rates as soon as September" #jobs #economy #markets #rates https://lnkd.in/ekWcuJfs

The key labour market metrics all moved in the right direction for the Fed in April. Nonfarm payrolls were weaker than expected, rising +175k in the month, below the consensus pick of around +240k. Importantly it was also below the estimated breakeven of +265k (Morgan Stanley estimate), the rate of jobs growth that keeps the unemployment rate unchanged. This saw a rise in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.9% (3.83% to 3.86% to be more precise) and softer average hourly earnings (4.1% y/y to 3.9 y/y). This is the first time the annual rate of wage growth has been below 4% in nearly three years. This result will give the Fed (and markets) a degree of confidence that the labour market is back to the softening trend of 2023 that was interrupted in the first quarter of this year. The Fed needs to see a material weakening in the labour market to justify rate cuts and while this result is far from a slam dunk in that regard, it is a move in the right direction.

The US May labour market report contained mixed news for the Fed. Payrolls growth came in stronger than expected at +272k, a touch stronger than the estimated breakeven rate of +265k. Solid jobs growth continues to be fuelled by resilient demand and the strong immigration-led growth in labour market supply (see my last post). Employment was weaker in the household survey which saw the unemployment rate tick higher from 3.9% to 4.0%. The disappointment (for the Fed, not workers) came in wage growth which printed higher than expected at annual growth of 4.1%. At the same time, the Fed will be taking some encouragement from the recent sharper falls in labour demand as indicated in the Job Openings survey published earlier this week. All grist for the mill as the FOMC heads into next week’s rate setting meeting.

The US labour market continues to gradually cool. While June Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 206k, which was a little higher than most economists expected, previous months were revised down to the tune of 111k jobs. This has resulted in an easing trend in monthly job gains. Underlining easing labour conditions, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% from 3.9% the previous month and wage growth was relatively subdued at 0.3% for the month. US labour market developments follow a recent run of generally cooler outcomes in the rest of the economy, including lower than expected manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity. At this stage the slowdown is moderate and not particularly alarming, but signs of an acceleration in the slowing could reignite worries about an imminent recession. Cooler economic conditions have raised financial market expectations the Federal Reserve will cut its main policy interest rate by 0.25% at least twice this year having expected barely one cut for the year not long ago. There is a now a relatively high chance the first Fed cut will come in September. This release of US June CPI data will be an intense focus of financial markets this week. The expectation is it will be another subdued outcome. If it is, the predictions of a September Fed interest rate cut will be further cemented in.

https://lnkd.in/g98WuVi7 US unemployment rate rises to 4.3% , US job growth was slower than expectations in July 2024 The U.S. job growth in July 2024 was slower than expected, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 114,000 jobs, below the forecasted 175,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021.

US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 in October while the unemployment rate held at a low level in a month distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike. Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000 last month, following downward revisions to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% and hourly earnings remained firm, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures released Friday. BLS said the hurricanes likely affected payrolls in some industries, but said it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the monthly change in national employment, hours or earnings estimates. They noted the collection rate for the survey of businesses that informs those statistics was “well below average.” BLS also said there was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate. Contact us today, and let us demonstrate how we can elevate your portfolio to new levels Contact Us: bit.ly/AlgoTrader Website: alphabinwanicapital.com Free Newsletter: bit.ly/AlgoNewsletter #Investing #ThematicInvesting #AI #NonFarmPayrolls

US September Jobs Report print came in better than expected with downtick in unemployment rate suggesting a relatively robust labor market and resilient economy - possibly implying a 25 bps rate cut in November (vs another Jumbo 50 bps) to keep inflation in check. US market futures uptick in response suggests rally at market open. “The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital labor market as the unemployment rate edged lower. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point.” #jobs #jobsreport #markets #economy #laborforce #unemploymentrate #inflation #federalreserve #cpi #stocks