SUHERMAN SANTIKNO’s Post

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Investment Professional

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP): It is a BUY. INTP started its commercial operations in 1975, making it one the oldest cement manufacturers in Indonesia. The company was founded by the country's top conglomerate during New Order political regime: Soedono Salim*, a founding father of a formidable Salim Group. Partly due to a strong support from the New Order regime, INTP has had been a very profitable firm since its birth date, growing to become the 2nd largest cement producer in the country. However, Salim Group had to let go INTP to GoI** --as a debt settlement-- post 1997-1998 multidimensional crisis. INTP was later sold to Germany-based Heideilberg AG by the gov't. That is the company profile intro, then we proceed to assess whether INTP share at IDR7,225 /unit (at the time of this note), worth a BUY or a SELL. It is, in our opinion, a BUY, based on the following arguments: 1). It is cheap: On EV***/ton metric, like its bigger peer Semen Indonesia, INTP is currently trading at a big discount. Using end-1Q24 balance sheet figures and current equity market cap, INTP's EV/ton is valued at around US$45 /ton, lesser than half either compared to industry's**** acquisition target or new plant investment**** at around US$100-US$120 /ton. On this metric, INTP is a bit cheaper than Semen Indonesia. This in turn should act as a good basis for Salim Group to re-acquire Indocement (especially INTP already generates a significant free cash flows) from the market, meaning downside price risk is rather limited; 2). Fair value of INTP should be at least IDR10k /share, valuing it as re-acquisition target by Salim Group; 3). The company (which carries the familiar Indo as its 'first name') has a high brand value, especially in western region of Indonesia: Sumatra and Java --the mostly populated areas (77% of a total of 279mn Indonesia population live here); consuming a big chunk of cement (and its derivative products) produced in the country. ****In emerging markets. ***Enterprise Value = Shares Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash. **Government of Indonesia. *One of the confidantes of Indonesian 2nd President --a leader of New Order regime who ruled the country for 32 years. 2024 YTD total returns of Indocement against its parent: Heidelberg Materials AG. (Source: Google Finance).

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