The Arabica coffee market began the week in dramatic fashion by dropping over 7% as increased margin requirements by the ICE exchange sparked an aggressive long liquidation. By midweek however, prices rebounded and pushed above the 330 mark as inventories remain below historical levels at destination warehouses. The current market dynamic has been tough to assimilate by coffee industry participants. It is generally acknowledged the market has detached from fundamentals, but there are 3 major themes that help explain the current predicament: - Just in Time inventory expectations by roasters have left them with very little coverage and exposed them to logistical hurdles. - Early crop projections, especially from Brazil, have proven way off the mark, resulting in overly optimistic supply expectations that have not materialized. - Uncertainty over EUDR implementation and qualified inventories in Europe added an artificial, yet very real, possibility of supply constraints. At any other time the market has surpassed 300, it has been attributed to a climatic event. This time around, however, it is not a market of Frost, but a market of Fear. Colombia is facing severe logistical challenges due to limited availability of containers and space on vessels. This comes at a critical time for the country in the midst of its main crop and record-high prices. The Arabica-Robusta arbitrage (the price gap between the 2 markets) had widened to 90 cents. As recently as September the price gap was below 30 cents. Extreme price volatility continued as the market operated in a wide range of 41.65 during the first week of the month, climbing 3.84% and settling at 330.25 #SpecialtyCoffeeCountry #CountryCoffee #SpecialtyCoffee #GreenCoffee #CoffeeRoasters #CoffeeImporters #CoffeeRoasting #RelationshipCoffee
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Coffee Prices Soar on December 6, 2024 Today, December 6, 2024, coffee prices continue their remarkable rise both domestically and globally, reaching four-digit increases. As of 11:30 AM, domestic coffee prices have extended their upward trend, with an average increase of 5,600 VND/kg, ranging between 118,500 - 120,200 VND/kg. The average purchase price in the Central Highlands is 120,100 VND/kg. 🏔Lâm Đồng: 118,500 VND/kg (+5,000 VND) 🏔Gia Lai: 120,000 VND/kg (+5,700 VND) 🏔Đắk Lắk: 120,000 VND/kg (+5,500 VND) 🏔Đắk Nông: 120,200 VND/kg (+5,500 VND) 🌍On the international front, both London and New York coffee markets saw significant increases across all futures contracts. The January 2025 contract on the London market rose by 2.62% to 4,895 USD/ton, while the March 2025 contract increased slightly by 0.05% to 4,873 USD/ton. Similarly, Arabica coffee futures in New York for December 2024 and March 2025 surged around 3.30%, with prices hovering between 313.50 - 311.30 cents/lb. 🛳⛴Export activities in Vietnam saw a decline in November, attributed to the late harvest and farmers holding back supply, which contributed to the price surge. Statistics show that in November, businesses exported 50,605 tons of coffee beans, earning 250.4 million USD at an average price of 4,947 USD/ton. Compared to the same period last year, export volume decreased by 47.4%, while revenue dropped by 0.5%. #CoffeePrices #MarketTrends #CoffeeIndustry #VietnamCoffee #GlobalCoffeeMarket #CoffeeExport #CoffeeFutures #CoffeeTrade #CoffeeNews
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Coffee Market Report for October 3, 2024: Global Coffee Prices Drop Sharply, Domestic Market "Turns Red" Global Coffee Prices Drop Sharply On the morning of October 3, 2024, the global coffee market witnessed a sharp decline on both the London and New York exchanges. As a result, domestic coffee prices also followed the general downward trend. Coffee Prices on the Exchanges ☘ Robusta (London): - Decreased by 266 - 334 USD/ton - November 2024: 5,111 USD/ton - January 2025: 4,862 USD/ton - March 2025: 4,651 USD/ton - May 2025: 4,511 USD/ton ☘ Arabica (New York): - Decreased by 6.65 - 7.65 cents/lb - December 2024: 256.50 cents/lb - March 2025: 254.75 cents/lb - May 2025: 252.80 cents/lb - July 2025: 250.35 cents/lb ☘ Arabica (Brazil): Mixed increases and decreases - December 2024: 311.55 USD/ton (up 0.14%) - March 2025: 310.20 USD/ton (down 1.65%) - May 2025: 310.20 USD/ton (down 2.90%) - July 2025: 306.90 USD/ton (down 2.79%) Domestic Coffee Prices Domestic coffee prices fell by 300 - 400 VND/kg, now ranging between 120,700 and 121,800 VND/kg. Noteworthy News - Quiet Market: The domestic coffee market is in a quiet phase ahead of the new harvest season. - Price Decline Forecast: Coffee prices are expected to continue declining in October as supply increases with the start of Vietnam's harvest. - Drought Impacting Yield: Coffee production is expected to decrease by 10-15% due to drought. - Market Outlook: Coffee prices have dropped significantly due to pressure from the global market and forecasts of increased supply in the near future. However, the replanting of coffee and the implementation of new production models in Đak Nong offer positive signals, contributing to long-term improvements in the productivity and quality of Vietnamese coffee. #vietnamcoffee #vcu #vietnamcoffeeunited #coffeeexport #robustacoffee
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📈 Coffee Prices Today - December 28, 2024 Have a nice weekend ☕️ and enjoy holiday🥂🪄💐 Domestic Coffee Prices Đắk Lắk: 120,800 VND/kg (-1,200) Lâm Đồng: 120,300 VND/kg (-1,200) Gia Lai: 120,800 VND/kg (-1,200) Đắk Nông: 121,000 VND/kg (-1,300) Exchange Rate (USD/VND): 25,538 (+330) Data Sources: giacaphe.com, giatieu.com Units: VND/kg | Exchange rate by Vietcombank International Coffee Prices Robusta (London) (USD/ton): March 2025: 4,953 (-88, -1.75%) May 2025: 4,884 (-69, -1.39%) July 2025: 4,814 (-44, -0.91%) September 2025: 4,726 (-28, -0.59%) Arabica (New York) (USD/ton): March 2025: 7,116 (-44, -0.62%) May 2025: 7,005 (-46, -0.66%) July 2025: 6,857 (-50, -0.73%) September 2025: 6,699 (-33, -0.49%) (Converted from cents/lb to USD/ton) Market Insights Coffee prices, both domestically and internationally, have dropped significantly this week as the market undergoes corrections after recent growth. Outlook: Typically, coffee prices show a slight recovery in the following week. However, with the upcoming New Year holidays, market trends might be unpredictable due to reduced trading activities. ☕ Business Recommendations: Plan inventory and transportation carefully, especially considering the holiday season. Monitor exchange rates and market trends closely to seize optimal buying/selling opportunities. Let’s look forward to a promising 2025 for Vietnam's coffee industry! 🌱 #CoffeePrices #CoffeeMarket #VietnamCoffee #MarketTrends #CoffeeIndustry
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🚨 A Severe Dip in Coffee Supply from Southeast Asia 🌏☕️Attention, coffee aficionates (and #investors) 📢 Fresh export data uncovers a significant downturn in robusta coffee bean shipments from #Vietnam, the globe's foremost producer. May's figures marked a record low, not seen in the last 15 years, with less than 80,000 tons leaving the country—a staggering 47% decline from the previousyear. ⬇️📉 This plummet is part of a troubling global trend of shrinking supplies and escalating prices, particularly for robusta beans, essential in instant coffee and various blends. The pinch is already being felt, with Bloomberg noting this shortage is contributing to rising #food #inflation, particularly affecting the economically vulnerable. 💸📊 With #Vietnam 's #coffee exports expected to remain low in the coming months, robusta futures have surged to their highest in 16 years in #London. This dire situation is prompted by depleted stockpiles and delayed new harvests, not anticipated until October. 📅⏳ Major coffee companies like The J.M. Smucker Co., with brands like Folgers and Dunkin', are signaling imminent price hikes in response to these surges. They pledge to navigate these increases strategically, balancing cost recovery and consumer affordability. 💼💵 Good for the ones who were long Coffee & hopefully that ain't affect the prices of #cocacola and Red Bull - my main sources of #Caffeine 🤣
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☕ Coffee Prices on December 7, 2024 📈 Average Price: 125,100 VND/kg (+5,000 VND) 🇻🇳 Domestic Coffee Prices: Đắk Lắk: +5,000 VND Lâm Đồng: +5,000 VND Gia Lai: +5,000 VND Đắk Nông: +5,100 VND 🌶️ Pepper Price: 147,000 VND (+2,000 VND) 💱 USD/VND Exchange Rate: 25,134 🌍 Global Coffee Prices: London Robusta: January 2025 contract at 5,153 USD/ton (+258 USD) New York Arabica: March 2025 contract at 330.25 USD cent/lb (+16.75 cent) 📊 Market Highlights: Domestic coffee prices continue to rise sharply, reaching up to 130,000 VND/kg. As of 11:30 AM today, the average purchase price of coffee in the Central Highlands is 126,100 VND/kg. Lâm Đồng has the lowest purchase price in the Central Highlands at 125,000 VND/kg. Gia Lai and Đắk Lắk both have prices at 126,000 VND/kg. Đắk Nông leads with the highest purchase price at 126,300 VND/kg. On the London and New York exchanges, coffee prices continue to rise across all contracts. 📈 Market Trends: The 2024-2025 coffee season is nearing its peak, with 25%-30% of the crop harvested but only 10% sold due to volatile prices. Analysts predict 50% of the crop will be harvested in December 2024. Exporters like Simexco DakLak are less active in the market due to slow demand and high capital requirements. Businesses need 2 billion USD to purchase about 30% of Vietnam’s early-season coffee production. With the current high prices and an estimated annual production of 1.6-1.8 million tons, the value of Vietnam’s coffee industry has surpassed 8 billion USD. #CoffeePrices #MarketUpdate #VietnamCoffee #GlobalCoffeeMarket #CoffeeIndustry #CoffeeTrade
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📈 ☕️ Arabica coffee market on the rise! Explore how volatility and other factors are impacting coffee prices in our latest Market Update 👇 The Arabica coffee market began the week in consolidating fashion after a major surge in prices that touched 18-month highs. On Thursday, however, new upward momentum was experienced as fresh support came from Robusta, posting an all-time high. On Friday, as many from the coffee world were attending the SCA conference in Chicago, the market experienced extreme volatility, trading between 236.20 and 219.50 in a single day. Since late February, the Robusta market has risen by more than 30% while Arabica is up almost 20% (with more than half of that coming in April). It is not far fetched to conclude that Robusta is now the dominant market that's setting pace, drawing headlines and challenging the industry, as Arabica is detaching from fundamentals. The Arabica coffee market is not being driven by fundamentals in the short term. We've decoupled from that mostly, although roasters needing coverage will, at some point, add price support. There are currently 639,650 bags in certified stocks (the highest in 10 months), with softening differentials in many origins. Differentials have dropped almost everywhere during the rally, underscoring a surplus environment. Overall, the NY rally has been led by fund buying and technically driven, supported by a red-hot Robusta market. It's important to note that we are looking at possibly the largest net speculative position in coffee's future history without a significant story to merit its existence. US inflation grew stronger than expected in March as surging gas prices and housing costs prolonged the government's battle against rising prices. This could force the Federal Reserve to keep its high rates longer, extending the economic stress they bring to businesses and households. High volatility continues to affect prices as Arabica coffee surged for the second week in a row, settling at 224.65.
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Coffee prices are reaching unprecedented levels as global supply concerns continue to drive up costs for consumers and businesses alike. The surge in prices is primarily due to a combination of factors, including adverse weather conditions in key coffee-producing regions, such as Brazil and Colombia, as well as transportation and logistical challenges. #coffee #prices #surge #recordhighs #global #supplyconcerns #weatherconditions #Brazil #Colombia #logisticalchallenges #marketupdate #coffeeindustry #priceincrease #demandandsupply The impact of these challenges is being felt across the entire coffee supply chain, from growers and producers to roasters and retailers. As a result, many businesses are being forced to pass on these increased costs to consumers, leading to higher prices at the retail level. #coffeeproducers #coffeeroasters #coffeeconsumers #retailprices #supplychain #globalmarket #sustainablecoffee #coffeetrade #pricehike #coffeeculture In order to navigate these challenging market conditions, businesses in the coffee industry must focus on implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of rising prices. This may include diversifying sourcing channels, hedging against price volatility, and exploring sustainable practices to ensure long-term resilience in the face of global supply concerns. #businessstrategies #sourcingchannels #pricevolatility #sustainablepractices #resilience #supplychainmanagement #coffeebusiness #marketstrategies As coffee prices continue to soar to record highs, it is more important than ever for industry players to stay informed on market trends and developments. By staying proactive and adaptable, businesses can weather the storm of global supply concerns and emerge stronger on the other side. #marketintelligence #industryinsights #globaltrends #supplyanddemand #coffeeeconomy #businesstips #marketforecast #supplychaindisruption https://lnkd.in/dKe-8U7G
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Coffee prices are forecast to continue to increase In March 2024, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices increased simultaneously due to a sharp increase in world demand, while supply was limited. Coffee prices are expected to continue to increase in the near future. On the London exchange, on March 28, Robusta coffee prices for delivery in May 2024, July 2024, September 2024 and November 2024 increased by 15.7%, 15%, 14.5% and 13.5% respectively compared to February 28, increasing to $ 3,559/ton, $ 3,467/ton, $ 3,385/ton and $ 3,295/ton. On the New York exchange, on March 28, the price of Arabica coffee for delivery in May 2024 and December 2024 increased by 4.2% compared to February 28, up to 190.65 cents/lb and 189.05 cents/lb respectively. Future prices for delivery in July 2024 and September 2024 both increased by 4.5%, up to 189.9 cents/lb and 189.45 cents/lb respectively. On Brazil's BMF exchange, on March 28, coffee futures prices for May 2024, July 2024 and September 2024 increased by 3.7%, 4.8% and 3.3% respectively compared to February 28, up to 234.95 cent/lb; 235.75 cent/lb and 230.45 cent/lb. In March 2024, Robusta coffee prices in the domestic market recorded a record-high increase compared to the end of February due to increased demand. On March 28, Robusta coffee prices increased by VND 16,100 - VND 16,900/kg (depending on the survey area) compared to February 28, up to VND 99,300 - VND 99,800/kg. Due to unfavourable weather factors, our country's Robusta coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year is estimated to only reach about 1.6 - 1.7 million tons, a decrease compared to the output of 1.78 million tons in the 2023/2024 crop year. #CoffeePricesRising #RobustaCoffeeExchange #LondonCoffeeMarket #CoffeeFutures #CoffeeIndustryNews #CoffeeMarketTrends #EconomicImpactofCoffeePrices
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The South African coffee shops will have to adjust their prices a bit. The global coffee and orange juice prices will likely remain elevated for some time – and the local market will have to follow suit, as we are importers. There are supply constraints in Brazil, a major producer, because of the bad weather, which negatively affects coffee and citrus production. Vietnam, a major coffee producer, also face weather challenges. The outlook for 2025 for both countries is not promising – there may be supply constraints for some time.
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As Climate change unfolds, we saw the effect on Cocoa a while back. Now it’s coffee. Further down the timeline, other crops with higher physical risks of climate change driven shortages are - Maize, Wheat (wheat supports about 20% of worlds calorie and protein requirement) Honey, Seafood, Maple Syrup, Avocados, Hops and many more. Climate change not just reduces yields, but also changes the favourable geographies (Crop yields reducing in tropical areas and increasing in the subtropical zones) requiring a change in infrastructure, with more investments required in the supply chain transition.
I don’t know about y’all, but I’m particularly fond of good dark chocolate as well as coffee. And on that note, I have some depressing news to share if you are a consumer: commodity prices in this sector have taken off. Two charts below, using free data from the World Bank through March 2024 (https://lnkd.in/esU6SeN). Thoughts: •The top chart shows the $/kilogram for Cocoa, which per the World Bank, represents, “International Cocoa Organization daily price, average of the first three positions on the terminal markets of New York and London, nearest three future trading months.” Very dry weather in West Africa is to blame (https://lnkd.in/gbXefHT9), with March 2024 prices being 160% higher than March 2023. •Bottom chart shows the $/kilogram for Robusta Coffee, which is primarily used in espresso and instant coffee (as well as various coffee blends, such as Nespresso Vertuo pods). Per the World bank, these data represent, “International Coffee Organization indicator price, Robustas, average New York and Le Havre/Marseilles markets, ex-dock.” Weather issues in Vietnam and Indonesia are to blame (https://lnkd.in/gdyMrYK7). •While ‘commercials’ (e.g., large chocolate and coffee manufacturers) will have hedged against price increases, I would anticipate that consumers will ultimately experience some price increases because of these commodity surges. Implication: while cocoa and robusta coffee represent, together, just 2.3% of the World Bank’s total commodity weight, chocolate and coffee manufacturers will be closely watching their price movements to ascertain whether they need to pass on higher input costs to wholesalers and retailers who, in turn, will pass along higher costs to consumers. While coffee prices have been relatively steady since late 2022 (https://lnkd.in/gnJBVgjw), I wouldn’t be surprised if expresso drinkers don’t find those little shots of caffeinated jet fuel become more expensive over the coming months. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #markets #economics #shipsandshipping
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