Forest Nguyen’s Post

Trade Policies Tariffs, #export and #import restrictions changes, and the #trade agreements made between countries are the factors that greatly determine the pricing. For instance, if a major producer like #Canada exports #lentils to other countries but then suddenly has export restrictions, or if new tariffs are imposed, this could cause an increase in price in global markets. The trade agreements between the producing and consuming countries may, on the other hand, result in a decrease in the costs, making the prices stable. Similarly, the levying of heavy import tariffs on lentils from certain countries can result in the final product’s high cost, pushing the market prices. Moreover, domestic policies that support local production will, in turn, reflect on the prices. Some countries may decide to impose higher tariffs on imports, which would then protect their farmers, leading to a situation where the imports would be reduced and consequently higher local prices would be charged. On the other hand, the government giving subsidies and trade incentives to increase domestic production can ease market pressures and stabilize prices. In short, international relations and trade policies are the key factors in deciding lentil prices worldwide. https://lnkd.in/dR_CHJM5 #lordagrotrade #green_lentils #pulses #trader

🇨🇳 Tariffs Could Lower Prices in Key Spending Areas   While tariffs on China often raise concerns about inflation and retaliatory measures, there is a potential silver lining. The U.S. exports significant amounts of agricultural and energy products to China, which are crucial for Chinese consumers and industries. If China imposes retaliatory tariffs, it could reduce demand for these U.S. exports, increasing their domestic availability and potentially lowering prices in the U.S. This could benefit American consumers by reducing costs in key spending areas like food and energy, which account for 40% of household expenses. Additionally, tariffs on high-tech and industrial goods may not significantly impact U.S. exports due to China’s reliance on these imports for its economic ambitions.   At John S. James Co., we understand the complexities of international trade and the potential impacts of tariffs on your business. Our expertise in U.S. customs brokerage and freight forwarding ensures that your shipments are handled efficiently and in compliance with all regulations. Trust us to manage your logistics needs and keep your supply chain running smoothly. Visit johnsjames.com to learn more about our comprehensive services.   #TradeWar #Tariffs #Logistics #SupplyChain #CustomsBrokerage #JohnSJamesCo #USChinaTrade #Agriculture #Energy #ConsumerPrices

A closer look at "Why broad-based import tariffs can hurt exports and manufacturing jobs" (https://lnkd.in/e_6ByKHf) in today's Briefing Book: across-the-board tariff hikes can inhibit long-term competitiveness because manufacturers rely on imported inputs and contribute disproportionately to overall exports and manufacturing job growth.

Christmas came early to Europe's alloys industry. Today the European Commission announced an investigation that could result in across-the-board tariffs, raising prices for downstream corporate buyers. Read on... The EC reckons claims it received requests for the #investigation from some unnamed EU governments. The imports under investigation relate to "manganese and silicon-based alloying elements." The grounds for the investigation were "The analysis of the information provided in the request indicates that total imports of the product concerned(3)increased from 1,3 million tonnes in 2020 to 1,6 million tonnes in the mid 2024. In addition, the total imports of the products concerned significantly increased in relative terms as well, i.e. from 126 % to 298 % in terms of production and from 71 % to 83 % in terms of consumption. The increase in imports appears to be the result of unforeseen developments such as increased production capacity in third countries and the attractiveness of the Union market. With existing spare capacity of more than 21 million tonnes and planned capacity increases of over 13 million tonnes worldwide, overcapacity for the product concerned will reach unprecedented levels, which cannot be absorbed, in particular, in the context of declining consumption in the Union. In addition, access to many markets is being closed as a result of trade defence measures adopted by a number of third countries in recent years in the context of global overcapacity. Other measures affecting access to important markets are expected to be taken in the near future." The accompanying press release goes further an invokes "economic #security" as a potential rationale for raising trade barriers. What to make of this news? 1. Once again the bugbear of foreign "#overcapacity" is blamed. No evidence was provided to support this content in the Notice issued today. Maybe it will be forthcoming later. 2. Having written that, lots of #subsidies have been awarded since the start of 2022 to producers of these alloys, see table below. A total of 65 subsidies outside of the EU have been recorded by the Global Trade Alert team. Fairness requires noting that an additional 45 subsidies were recorded as being awarded by EU governments! So maybe some of the excess capacity is inside the EU. 3. The Commission makes a curious reference to the number of trade defence actions around the world. I could not confirm that. As the table below shows, only 2 have been recorded since the start of 2022 in the GTA database. Even if the Commission decides not to impose tariffs, a cloud now hangs over importing these alloys into the EU. This will have a chilling effect on trade in this sector, impairing foreign market access. IMD David Bach Stefan Michel Misiek Piskorski Andy Bounds Finbarr Bermingham Iana Dreyer Fernando Martín Mona Paulsen Alan Beattie David Henig Sam Lowe George Riddell Edwin Vermulst Michael Dounaev Thierry Maupilé Sarah Toms

PIIE publishes a quick brief on Trump's proposed tariff landscape, with a focus on China, non-FTAs, FTAs and North America. My question is not whether higher tariffs undermine U.S. economic growth and development (they do in the medium to long terms), but how will the incoming administration approach the tariff exclusion process? Certainly, many in the incoming administration have experience with the Chinese import and Section 232 Steel and Aluminum 25% tariff exclusion processes; will high tariffs be paired with a broad and effectively generous exclusion process that minimizes the harmful impacts to the economy, prices and jobs without neutralizing the populist political punch of tariffs in this anti-globalization era?

NEW REPORT: Trump’s tariffs would hit EU exports, but U.S. suffers most Today, my colleagues Lovi Nordgren, Petter Stålenheim, and I are excited to share our latest Kommerskollegium | National Board of Trade Sweden report, which offers an in-depth analysis of the potential impact of Donald Trump's pledged tariffs on global trade, using the METRO CGE model. 📉 Key Findings: · Global effects: Negative growth effects across all the analysed countries and regions, accompanied by a substantial decrease in international trade. · US: Imports and exports could drop by 10% and 14% respectively, with industries deeply embedded in global value chains suffering the most. · Sweden: While the overall impact might be moderate, key sectors like motor vehicles and pharmaceuticals could see exports to the US fall by roughly 15%. · EU: Will also see economic exchange with the US decline, while imports from China will rise by approximately 8%.   · China: Exports to the US could drop sharply, decreasing by 66%.   🚨 Key Risks: · Rising costs for businesses and consumers, ultimately contributing to rising inflation in the US.   · Disruption to global trade flows, likely affecting the exchange of green technologies.   · Trade partners may retaliate, leading to escalating trade tensions and more severe consequences. If you want to crunch the numbers and understand the broader economic implications, read the report here:

Tariffs: How the world reacts to China's trade surplus.  The world is reacting to China's record trade surplus of 99 billion US dollars. More and more countries are imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods to protect domestic industry or reduce dependencies. China's trade surplus rose to a monthly record high of over 99 billion US dollars in June 2024, further stoking global anxiety about Chinese overcapacity flooding global markets. In response, a number of countries have enacted or are deliberating new tariffs on Chinese goods, ranging from high-tech goods such as electric vehicles to industrial inputs like steel to consumer goods such as household appliances and textiles. The rationale and approach for applying higher duties vary from country to country. For example, the U.S. targets a broad range of critical technologies, such as batteries and legacy chips, to reduce dependencies on China. The EU also seeks to reduce dependencies but targets a narrower scope. For countries that are still seeking closer relations with China, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, higher duties aim to protect local industries from Chinese dumping prices without endangering broader economic relations. Indonesia announced plans to put up 200 percent tariffs on various consumer goods, while Malaysia now applies a 10 percent import tax on low-cost goods bought online. For some countries, the tariff threat is a convenient leverage for investment negotiations with Chinese companies. Turkey, for example, imposed a 40 percent tariff increase on all car imports from China. The tariffs, however, were retracted after a Xi-Erdogan meeting followed by a 1 billion USD investment of BYD in Turkey. As China’s trade surplus and allegations of over-capacities continue to grow, more tariffs can be expected. In the EU, more anti-subsidy investigations, such as on wind turbines, are looming. But also in other countries, e.g. India, deliberations on more tariffs are happening. Great info from Table Briefing. #interesting #technology #semiconductor #tariffs #electronics Rogério Moreira Juan Barrera Pavel Navarrete

The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies on Fresh Produce Exporting In today’s interconnected global market, tariffs and trade policies play a critical role in shaping the landscape for fresh produce exports. For exporters, these policies can either open doors to new opportunities or create significant barriers to entry. Tariffs, which are taxes imposed on imported goods, can increase the cost of fresh produce in the destination market. This can lead to higher prices for consumers, reducing demand and making it challenging for exporters to compete. For instance, a sudden increase in tariffs can erode profit margins, forcing exporters to either absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers, both of which can be detrimental to business. On the other hand, favorable trade agreements can enhance market access by reducing or eliminating tariffs. Such agreements often include provisions for streamlined customs procedures, improved transparency, and stronger legal protections, all of which are beneficial for exporters. However, the uncertainty of trade policies can also pose challenges. Changes in government, geopolitical tensions, or shifts in domestic priorities can lead to sudden alterations in trade agreements or the imposition of new tariffs, disrupting established supply chains. For fresh produce exporters, staying informed and adaptable is key. By closely monitoring trade policies and engaging with industry stakeholders, exporters can navigate these challenges and leverage opportunities to expand their market presence. In conclusion, while tariffs and trade policies can pose significant challenges, they also present opportunities for growth. Exporters who can effectively manage these factors will be well-positioned to thrive in the global market. #Exporting #TradePolicy #GlobalTrade #FreshProduce #Tariffs #ExportBusiness #AgriExport #SupplyChain #MarketAccess #TradeAgreements #Agriculture #GlobalMarket #ExportOpportunities

Surprise! Tariffs could slash prices where they hurt you most There's a silver lining in exports to China The U.S.-China trade relationship is characterized by a significant trade deficit, with China exporting far more to the U.S. than vice versa. The U.S. primarily exports agricultural products, energy, chemicals, high-tech circuits, and aerospace goods to China. China’s reliance on U.S. agricultural and energy exports is critical, as it cannot produce enough food or energy domestically to meet demand. Tariffs on these exports could raise costs for Chinese consumers and industries, potentially reducing demand and increasing domestic availability in the U.S., which may help stabilize or lower prices in these sectors. Selective tariff applications on Chinese imports, such as seafood and fruits, have been used in the past to shield U.S. consumers from price hikes. Meanwhile, China’s dependency on U.S. high-tech and industrial exports, crucial for its economic development, limits its ability to impose significant retaliatory tariffs on these goods. Strategic tariff implementation could protect U.S. industries and benefit consumers while maintaining leverage in critical sectors. #Export #US #China #Tariffs #Trade #Ocean #Shipping Stay Informed: https://lnkd.in/e7udnf73

It is interesting that the concept of "free trade" is often touted as a cornerstone of global economic policy, yet it remains largely an illusion. While trade agreements are labeled as "free trade deals," they frequently impose various barriers rather than eliminate them. This contradiction raises questions about the true nature of these agreements and their impact on international commerce. U.S. tariffs are among the lowest in the world – and in the nation’s history The United States has implemented various tariffs, particularly during the Trump administration, which targeted steel, aluminum, and numerous goods from China. These tariffs, affecting over $380 billion in imports, aimed to protect domestic industries and generate revenue. Despite these measures, U.S. tariffs are among the lowest in the world – and in the nation’s history U.S. tariffs remain among the lowest globally, with a weighted mean applied tariff significantly lower than many other countries. In contrast, nations like India and Brazil impose much higher tariffs, often exceeding 20%. This disparity highlights the U.S. approach to trade, which balances protectionism with the need for competitive pricing.